The chain of protest movements that began in Tunisia and spread through the Middle East in 2011 has prompted questions among U.S. presidential candidates about what kind of regimes are likely to replace the fallen autocracies in Egypt, Tunisia, and Libya. It also has led to debate about whether or not the Obama administration was justified in joining NATO to defend Libyan rebels against the regime of former leader Muammar al-Qaddafi. With violence increasing in Syria, the question of intervention has again become a topic of debate. While the candidates in the 2012 race are supportive of the spread of democracy in the Arab world, they differ widely about how aggressively U.S. policy should bolster that aim.

Editor's Note: Click here for more CFR Issue Trackers and other 2012 campaign resources, which examine the foreign policy and national security dimensions of the presidential race.

Barack Obama

Democratic Incumbent

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President Obama has generally supported the calls for democratic reform sweeping Arab states but his administration's policy has differed in response to regime crackdowns. While endorsing military force to protect Libyan civilians and tough economic measures against the Syrian regime, U.S. reaction has been more muted in response to the regime backlash against demonstrators in Bahrain, a regional ally.

Obama said in May 2011 speech about the growing Arab civil protest movements: "It will be the policy of the United States to promote reform across the region, and to support transitions to democracy."

Obama defended the administration's decision to join the NATO coalition in Libya against then-leader Muammar al-Qaddafi, saying the costs of intervention "cannot be an argument for never acting on behalf of what's right." He said the argument for action was a combination of "the prospect of violence on a horrific scale," an international coalition, and support of Arab countries.

In a speech in Cairo in June 2009, President Obama noted "controversy about the promotion of democracy in recent years," much of it connected to the war in Iraq. He expressed support for democratic principles but added: "No system of government can or should be imposed by one nation by any other."

In February 2012, President Obama called for Syrian President Bashar al-Assad to transfer power without delay, saying "Assad has no right to lead Syria, and has lost all legitimacy with his people and the international community." In a joint press conference with British Prime Minister David Cameron in March, Obama touched on the Syria issue again. "What we want is the quickest way to stop the killing that is through transition rather than revolution or civil war," Obama said. "But if Assad continues, then civil war or revolution is the inevitable consequence. So we will work with anyone who is ready to build a stable, inclusive, and democratic Syria for all Syrians."

Ron Paul

Republican Candidate

Rep. Paul's (R-TX) noninterventionist policy "means America does not interfere militarily, financially, or covertly in the internal affairs of other nations." He also says it is time "to ask ourselves whether further American lives and tax dollars should be lost trying to remake the Middle East in our image."

Paul has argued that funding given to Egypt over three decades to support stability there has meant "not only has that stability fallen to pieces with the current unrest, but the years of propping up the corrupt regime in Egypt has led the people to increase their resentment of both America and Israel."

In an interview with CNN in June 2011, Paul said the United States had no "constitutional authority" to be involved in Libya and that it doesn't "have the money to do it." He also says Muslim extremist elements stand a greater chance of replacing Middle East autocrats than do democratic reformers. Paul says that the United States should spread its values "by setting an example and going and doing a good job here."

In February 2012, Paul said that he would not advocate action in Syria (CNN) or any troubled country as president unless Congress officially declared war. "I think it's a tragedy, but I can point out many tragedies, many folds greater than this, but it's not in American interests," he said.

Mitt Romney

Republican Candidate

Mitt Romney criticized the Obama administration (WashTimes) for "an Arab Spring, which is out of control in some respects because the president was not as strong as he needed to be in encouraging our friends to move toward representative forms of government."

His web site promises "a Romney administration will pursue a strategy of supporting groups and governments across the Middle East to advance the values of representative government, economic opportunity, and human rights."

Romney also advocates organizing diplomatic and assistance efforts in the Middle East under a regional director with unified budgetary and directive authority.

In a February 22 debate, Romney touched on the ongoing situationi n Syria. "Syria, is–has a leader that's in real trouble. And we ought to grab a hold of that like it's the best thing we've ever seen," Romney said. He added that the United States should work with Saudi Arabia and Turkey "to say, you guys provide the kind of weaponry that's needed to help the rebels inside Syria."March 4, Romney said he was "not anxious" to use military action. "Syria is a far more serious military defender than was Libya," he said.

Newt Gingrich (*withdrew)

Editor's Note: Gingrich withdrew his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on May 2, 2012.

Gingrich is a strong advocate of worldwide democracy promotion. He told ABC News in February 2011, "I think we should be pressuring everywhere, including Russia, including China, including Cuba. We should be pushing steadily and saying, 'America stands for freedom.'" He also expressed concerns about the rise of the Muslim Brotherhood in Egypt and suggested that the United States should use its economic leverage if the Egyptian military wasn't moving in a democratic direction.

In a 2009 conversation with CFR's Elliot Abrams, Gingrich said, "I wouldn't say our job is democracy-building. I would say we have an interest in modernity everywhere on the planet, because modernity means you can fight disease; modernity means people earn enough money to have a decent living without you having to subsidize them."

In his book "A 21st Century Contract With America," Gingrich praises President George W. Bush for saying that the only strategy that can make the United States secure is "if the Middle East grows in democracy, prosperity, and hope."

Gingrich said in an interview with CBS in February 2012 that that the United States could take covert action against Syria's Assad regime. "I think there are a lot of things we could do covertly in terms of supplying weapons, supplying — helping people in the region supply advisers," he said. "I don't think you need to use American troops, but you do need to communicate that those who are opposed to Assad will get the kind of support they need in order to defeat him." At a GOP presidential debate February 22, Gingrich advocated the use of allies and other outside groups to arm the rebellion.

Rick Santorum (*withdrew)

Editor's Note: Santorum withdrew his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on April 10, 2012.

Santorum criticized the Obama administration in the September 2011 Republican debate for indecision and confusion in Libya, where the United States "could have been a force for good from the very get-go." He has also criticized Obama for throwing "Mubarak under the bus" (Haaretz) while the "new military regime in Egypt brokers a deal between" the Palestinian Authority and Hamas.

Santorum says would have advocated for more strongly supporting nascent pro-democracy movements (Boston.com) in the Middle East. He also calls for toughening sanctions against Iran, and supporting the pro-democracy movement there. During his time in the Senate, he helped sponsor the Iran Freedom Support Act, authorizing $10 million toward regime change in Iran.

In an interview on CNN January 30, Santorum said he would be proactive in supporting Syria's pro-democracy movement. "This is a regime that is a puppet state of Iran — and is one that has to go, in my opinion, if we're going to see peace and stability for Israel and in the Middle East," he said.

March 5, Santorum said that the United State should help to "arm and supply" the Syrian rebels. "When the United States says, 'This guy should go,' then the expectation is that the United States will stand behind limited and reasonable efforts to do so," he said in an interview with TIME. Santorum at one point said he would consider air strikes against Syria but later backtracked, saying he did not know enough about what is happening on the ground and that he is "not quite prepared to go there at this point in time (MSNBC)."

Michele Bachmann (*withdrew)

Editor's Note: Rep. Bachmann withdrew her candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on January 4, 2012.

Rep. Bachmann (R-MN) has criticized the Obama administration (CBSNews) for "the hostilities of the Arab Spring" and has expressed regret about the fall of former Egyptian President Hosni Mubarak. In October, she accused Obama of "laying the table for the Arab Spring by demonstrating the weakness of the United States."

Bachmann argued against the U.S. intervention in Libya, saying that Libya's future is uncertain; she has also said that the NATO mission in Libya (CNN) could help al-Qaeda. In August 2011, she said the administration was too slow in calling for Syria's President Bashar al-Assad to step aside (CNN).

Jon Huntsman (*withdrew)

Editor's Note: Huntsman withdrew his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on January 16, 2012.

Huntsman has expressed concern about intervening on behalf of democratic movements, notably in Libya. In a debate with Newt Gingrich in New Hampshire on Dec. 11, 2011, Huntsman reportedly said "you can't force history" and the United States make a mistake "by intervening and trying to pick winners."

On his campaign web site, Huntsman says the United States should support "democratic aspirations" in the Arab world while "maintaining continued Middle East stability." But Washington, he says, should recognize the limitations on its "ability to influence the final outcome in these societies, and U.S. policymakers should anticipate a variety of outcomes in these countries, including the possibility of the emergence of governments that are less receptive to U.S. interests than might be hoped."

Rick Perry (*withdrew)

Editor's Note: Perry withdrew his candidacy for the Republican presidential nomination on January 19, 2012.

Perry advocates democracy promotion, saying the United States should emulate Ronald Reagan and "speak past the oppressors and the illegitimate rulers directly to their people."

He argued in September 2011 that the United States failed to do enough to support the Green Revolution in Iran in 2009, and that "America was wasting precious time on a naïve policy of outreach to both the Iranian and Syrian governments."

In comments at Liberty University in September 2011, Perry said the events in the Middle East show that the United States must continue to "be the world's leading advocate for freedom" and speak "the truth to adversaries and dictators in keeping with our democratic values."