Share

--

--

Recent events have cast doubt on the legitimacy of current elections in South Asia.

Despite relatively high voter turnout, the Kashmir elections have been marred by violence, state coercion and the boycott of the All Parties Hurriyat Conference, or APHC. The electoral process in Pakistan, although less volatile, has been similarly compromised. Violence, military interference, disqualification of key leaders and a lifeless campaign by debilitated political parties have left the electorate wondering who they should vote for or perhaps, why they should vote at all.

Nevertheless, the United States has endorsed the Kashmir polls and remains optimistic about the process in Pakistan, thereby legitimizing these elections as democratic exercises. Unqualified support for these elections, however, is dangerous. If the United States hopes to preserve in South Asia the values that it is fighting for all over the world, it must critically evaluate whether Kashmiri and Pakistani voters have been able to express themselves freely and whether these elections truly subscribe to democratic norms.

Indian willingness to hold elections as a first step toward correcting Kashmiri grievances and electing a representative government is commendable. Kashmiris want their voices heard, and many have thus risked voting amid terrifying violence.

However, despite its shortcomings, the APHC represents large constituencies that will be unrepresented in the new government. Moreover, daily violence has hindered many Kashmiris from honestly expressing their views.

Despite the best intentions of the Indian government, the environment has not been conducive to free and fair polls and many voters have abstained, either by choice or under pressure. Entire towns failed to vote, and the bout of violence surrounding phase three was particularly intimidating.

Low voter turnout in some districts induced the incumbent pro-India National Conference (which is likely to win due to the APHC boycott) to request the central government to send forces to pressure voters and credible reports have confirmed coercion on the part of the state. While disruptive violence by militants is reprehensible, the state's role in influencing election results is equally disturbing and raises questions regarding the relevance of Kashmiri public opinion to India's agenda for resolving the crisis.

In Pakistan, elections were intended to herald the return of democracy after three years of military rule. Musharraf's dubious referendum and constitutional amendments have already stained the democratic process in Pakistan. Moreover, the disqualification of popular leaders Benazir Bhutto and Nawaz Sharif and other contestants due to arbitrary conditions imposed by the military government has restricted the electorate's choices.

Local officials of the Musharraf government are using state resources to favor the pro-government King's Party, which has also received excessive coverage on state-owned television. Politicians across the board complain of coercion and election-related violence is on the rise. In response to this situation, political parties are further distorting the process by arriving at seat arrangements. Journalists tracking public opinion note unprecedented voter apathy and disillusionment in Pakistan.

The result then may well be that as far as democracy is concerned, elections will change little in both Kashmir and Pakistan. American endorsement of Kashmir elections marked by disturbances will perpetuate the marginalization of Kashmiri public opinion. Similarly, American unwillingness to challenge Musharraf's egregious constitutional and electoral violations will lend American support to the distortion of democracy in Pakistan.

Today, the United States has positive relations with both India and Pakistan. American influence was demonstrated this spring when U.S. counsel for restraint played a decisive role in defusing tensions in the subcontinent.

The situation today is not militarily volatile but is equally important. The United States must uphold in South Asia the values it is fighting for globally.

This is the time for the United States to convey to both India and Pakistan that holding elections is not enough - elections must allow the electorate to freely express their views. For many months now, the international community has been awaiting these elections in the hopes that they will diminish South Asian tensions and serve as a step forward in correcting grievances in the region.

Allowing these elections to serve as legitimate barometers for public opinion in South Asia, however, may simply perpetuate the status quo in a region that is already known as "the most dangerous place in the world."

Issa is research associate in South and West Asian affairs for the New York-based Council on Foreign Relations. She can be reached via e-mail at fissa@cfr.org.