Preventive Action Update January 2017

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What to Watch in 2017 | How to End War in South Sudan

DISPLACED PEOPLE WALK NEXT TO A RAZOR WIRE FENCE AT THE UNITED NATIONS BASE IN JUBA, SOUTH SUDAN, ON JANUARY 19, 2016. (JASON PATINKIN/ASSOCIATED PRESS)

DISPLACED PEOPLE WALK NEXT TO A RAZOR WIRE FENCE AT THE UNITED NATIONS BASE IN JUBA, SOUTH SUDAN, ON JANUARY 19, 2016. (JASON PATINKIN/ASSOCIATED PRESS)

Dear Colleague,

Happy New Year! The year 2016 was eventful, and we have kept busy over the last few months at the Center for Preventive Action (CPA). We published our annual Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS), and I discussed its results with other experts in conflict prevention in both New York and Washington, DC. We also published a Council Special Report on how to resolve South Sudan’s three-year civil war, and CPA Assistant Director Helia Ighani wrote a report on our regional workshop in Talloires, France, which discussed the emerging Saudi-Iran rivalry in the Middle East. The Global Conflict Tracker, updated daily, remains one of the most-viewed parts of CFR’s website.

To learn more about our latest activities and publications, we welcome you to read through our newsletter, explore our website, read our blog, like our Facebook page, and follow us on Twitter. As always, thank you for your continued support and feedback.

Best wishes,

Paul B. Stares
General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention
Director of the Center for Preventive Action

 

Tracker Maps Conflicts Around the World

 
 

 

The Global Conflict Tracker is an interactive guide that tracks ongoing conflicts around the world that are of concern to the United States. The interactive covers nearly thirty conflicts, from criminal violence in Mexico to civil war in Syria to conflict in the South China Sea.  Explore the interactive. »

 

RECENT PUBLICATIONS

Russia-NATO Confrontation and North Korea Crisis Among Top Potential Conflicts for 2017
 

The Center for Preventive Action’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey (PPS) evaluates ongoing and potential conflicts based on their likelihood of occurring in the coming year and their impact on U.S. interests. The PPS aims to help the U.S. policymaking community prioritize competing conflict prevention and mitigation demands.  Read the PPS »

 
A Transitional Administration Is the Only Hope for South Sudan
Kate Almquist Knopf

In our latest Council Special Report, Kate Almquist Knopf, director of the Africa Center for Strategic Studies at the National Defense University, argues that three years of civil war and a failed peace process have left South Sudan in a state of collapse with no resolution in sight. According to Knopf, the only realistic path to end the violence in South Sudan is to establish a transitional administration, managed by the United Nations and African Union.  Read the report »

 
Understanding the Saudi-Iran Rivalry’s Effect on the Middle East
Helia Ighani

In July 2016, the Center for Preventive Action held a workshop at the Tufts University’s European Center in Talloires, France, on the tensions between Saudi Arabia and Iran. This rapporteur’s report by Helia Ighani, assistant director of the Center for Preventive Action, summarizes the highlights of the conference, which focused on the geopolitical rivalry between the two countries and the risks it poses to the United States and Europe.  Read the report »

 

Interactive Tool Tracks Political Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Interactive Tool Tracks Political Violence in Sub-Saharan Africa

Continuing political violence in sub-Saharan Africa causes untold misery, and hampers political, economic, and social development. The Sub-Saharan Security Tracker (SST) uses over three million data points to map the state of political violence, specifically deaths caused by such violence, in the region, including geographic distribution, trends over time, and actors involved. 

 

PPS IN THE NEWS

Will World War 3 Start in 2017? Predictions For Trump, Russia, Middle Eastern Peace, U.S.-Israeli Relations
 

Coverage in the International Business Times of the 2017 Preventive Priorities Survey.  Read more »

 
The Most Worrying World Conflicts in 2017, Ranked by Foreign Policy Experts
 

Coverage in Quartz of the 2017 Preventive Priorities Survey.  Read more »

 
4 Ways Russian-NATO Relations Could Break Down in 2017
 

Coverage by United Press International of the 2017 Preventive Priorities Survey.  Read more »

 
The Crisis Manager’s Cheat Sheet for 2017
 

Zenko argues it is time to start setting priorities for the coming year of war and conflict.  Read more »

 
CFR’s Stares: No Radical Changes for NATO in 2017
 

Stares appears on Bloomberg Surveillance to discuss the results of the 2017 Preventive Priorities Survey. Read more »

 
Global Conflicts to Watch in 2017
 

 Coverage in the Atlantic of the 2017 Preventive Priorities Survey. Read more »

 

CPA IN THE NEWS

Trump Is Going to Regret Not Having a Grand Strategy
 

CPA Senior Fellow Micah Zenko and Stanton Nuclear Security Fellow Rebecca Friedman Lissner offer a theory of President Donald J. Trump’s doctrine of “tactical transactionalism.” Read more »

 
America Dropped 26,171 Bombs in 2016. What a Bloody End to Obama’s Reign
 

Coverage in the Guardian of CPA Senior Fellow Micah Zenko and Research Associate Jennifer Wilson’s research on the number of bombs dropped by the United States last year. Read more »

 
The Best Worst Quotes of 2016
 

Zenko lists the top twenty notable foreign policy quotes by U.S. government officials.  Read more »

 
Assessing the Risk of Regime Change in North Korea
 

In anticipation that U.S. policy toward North Korea will become a topic of growing debate in the United States—especially as the Trump administration begins to review policy options—this paper by CPA Director Paul Stares explores important questions about the prospects for regime change and its putative benefits. Read more »

 
Human Soldiers Will Always Cause Human Tragedies
 

Tragedies keep occurring in war, despite the best intentions of U.S. troops. Zenko provides recommendations to reduce the type of human errors in Syria, Afghanistan, and Iraq that have led to avoidable civilian casualties. Read more »

 
A No-Fly Zone Doesn’t Mean a No-War Zone
 

Zenko looks back at events that occurred during the no-fly zone established in northern Iraq from 1991 to 2003 to remind politicians and pundits how toothless and ineffective U.S. air patrols can be. Read more »

 
Checking the Math on the Pentagon’s ISIS Body Counts
 

Zenko examines the accuracy of the Obama administration’s tally of dead combatants during the ongoing war against the self-declared Islamic State.  Read more »

 

ABOUT THE CENTER FOR PREVENTIVE ACTION

The Center for Preventive Action seeks to help prevent, defuse, or resolve deadly conflicts around the world and to expand the body of knowledge on conflict prevention.

 
Paul B. Stares
CPA Director, General John W. Vessey Senior Fellow for Conflict Prevention

Micah Zenko
@MicahZenko
Senior Fellow

Helia Ighani
Assistant Director
Sarah Collman
Research Associate

James West
Research Associate

Jennifer Wilson
Research Associate