Blogs

Follow the Money

Brad Setser tracks cross-border flows, with a bit of macroeconomics thrown in.

Latest Post

Monitors displaying the stock index prices and Japanese yen exchange rate against the U.S. dollar at the Tokyo Stock Exchange Issei Kato/Reuters

Three Steps to Strengthen the U.S. Treasury's Foreign Exchange Report

The analytics used in the U.S. Treasury's Foreign Exchange Report should be updated to better capture the significant state flows that no longer appear as part of many country's disclosed foreign exchange reserves. Read More

Currency Reserves
Asian Intervention in the Foreign Exchange Market is Back. Bigly.
Joe Gagnon and Fred Bergsten have called the years from 2003 to 2013 the decade of manipulation, as a host of Asian countries protected their competitive position of their exporters by intervening massively in the foreign exchange market. Is a new decade of manipulation about to start, as Asian exporters once again try to keep their currencies from rising? 
Trade
The Return of Big Chinese Surpluses (And Large U.S. Deficits)
Global trade imbalances are, once again, largely the result of Chinese and American trade imbalances. China's surplus has increased even as the pandemic has reduced global trade, as has the U.S. deficit.
United States
Could Trade Agreements Help Limit Tax Competition?
There is, now, I hope a growing recognition that tax avoidance has a significant impact on the structure of global supply chains—some “supply” chains also function as tax chains, with transfer pricin…
  • Trade
    Falling Trade, Rising Imbalances...
    If nothing changes, China’s massive trade surplus will soon be an even bigger political and economic issue…as global trade imbalances are once again being made in China.
  • United States
    Weaker Dollar Means More Dollar Reserves
    Large increases in dollar reserves tend to come during periods of dollar weakness, not periods of dollar strength. That is for a simple reason: many export-heavy countries still intervene heavily in the foreign currency market to try to keep their own currencies from appreciating against the dollar. Until Asia is as willing to float up as it is to float down, the dollar isn't going anywhere as a reserve currency.
  • Economics
    Revisiting the Ides of March, Part III: Scary Stories to Tell in the Dark
    This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…
  • Economics
    Revisiting the Ides of March, Part II: The Going Gets Weird
    This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…
  • Economics
    Revisiting the Ides of March, Part I: A Thousand Year Flood
    This is a guest blog by Josh Younger, an interest rate strategist at J.P. Morgan. Joshua Younger is employed by the Research Department of J.P. Morgan Chase & Co. All views expressed in this forum ar…
  • China
    Slouching Toward Phase One
    On current trends, goods exports to China will struggle to reach their 2017 level—there won't be any big gains from the Phase One deal.
  • Argentina
    The State of Argentina’s Debt Restructuring…
    When a majority isn’t a majority…