- Blog Post
- Blog posts represent the views of CFR fellows and staff and not those of CFR, which takes no institutional positions.
For the upcoming U.S. midterm elections, many polling specialists are predicting that the Democratic Party will retake the House of Representatives, and give the Democrats a very slim chance of retaking the Senate as well. Both houses of Congress are currently in Republican hands, but a wave of Republican retirements in the House, a spike in Democratic interest in the midterms, and strong Democratic fund-raising and candidates could give the Democrats a House majority. FiveThirtyEight, probably the best-known analysis and prediction site, currently gives the Democrats roughly an 80 percent chance of winning the House, and around a 20 percent chance of retaking the Senate.
If Democrats retake the House, the shift will likely mean changes in Asia policy. For more on exactly what shifts might happen, see my new article in the Diplomat.