"It’s tough to make predictions, especially about the future," Yogi Berra once said. But it’s also necessary, and the Council on Foreign Relations tries it at the end of each year. The Center for Preventive Action at CFR surveys 2200 foreign policy officials, academics, and experts to see what they think will emerge as the toughest and most dangerous problems of the coming year.
The new "Preventive Priorities Survey 2015" can be found here. Take a look.
Not everything gets worse: Risks of instability or violence in Pakistan and Jordan are down from last year.
Here are the top ten dangers:
- the intensification of the conflict in Iraq
- a large-scale attack on the U.S. homeland or ally
- a cyberattack on U.S. critical infrastructure
- a severe North Korean crisis
- the renewed threat of Israeli military strikes against Iran
- an armed confrontation in the South China Sea
- the escalation of the Syrian civil war
- rising violence and instability in Afghanistan
- increased fighting in eastern Ukraine
- heightened Israeli-Palestinian tensions
Note that numbers two and three are not foreign policy matters at all, but significant dangers for the U.S. homeland.
Happy New Year. (Again, full text here.)