Nothing gets discussions flowing quite like China's economic trajectory - at least among readers of this blog.
And I suspect this chart - all I did was extrapolate US and Chinese exports of goods through the end of 2006 based on the January-February export growth rate for China and the 2005 growth rate for US exports - will generate a bit of discussion.
Is the current trajectory realistic? For how long? i f Chinese exports grow by 25% in 2006, can they realistically grow at that pace again in 2007? Note that 25% growth in 2007 would imply monthly exports in December 2007 of $110b or so. If not, what forces will emerge to slow done the rate of growth?
One last note: I will be away from my desk for the next week. I plan to update the blog, but probably not quite as frequently as usual.