from Follow the Money

When will Chinese export growth slow?

March 15, 2006

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Blog posts represent the views of CFR fellows and staff and not those of CFR, which takes no institutional positions.

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Nothing gets discussions flowing quite like China's economic trajectory - at least among readers of this blog.    

And I suspect this chart - all I did was extrapolate US and Chinese exports of goods through the end of 2006 based on the January-February export growth rate for China and the 2005 growth rate for US exports - will generate a bit of discussion.


 

Is the current trajectory realistic?  For how long?  i f Chinese exports grow by 25% in 2006, can they realistically grow at that pace again in 2007?  Note that 25% growth in 2007 would imply monthly exports in December 2007 of $110b or so.   If not, what forces will emerge to slow done the rate of growth?

One last note: I will be away from my desk for the next week.   I plan to update the blog, but probably not quite as frequently as usual.

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