[{"command":"settings","settings":{"pluralDelimiter":"\u0003","suppressDeprecationErrors":true,"ajaxPageState":{"libraries":"eJwry0wtL9YvA5F6ufkppTmpOmBOfGJWYkV8emqJPowBFc_MS8vMyyxJjS9OLsrPyYFo1YWJ6kJEAdF1Ikc","theme":"cfr_theme","theme_token":null},"ajaxTrustedUrl":[],"views":{"ajax_path":"\/views\/ajax","ajaxViews":{"views_dom_id:30c752b9dfe690c11f1f4f7a0a580cd3ea14a8409ca8d3b95bb0c8df94e5ff26":{"view_name":"blog_posts","view_display_id":"block_archived_blog_posts","view_args":"4\/252617\/2015","view_path":"\/custom\/ajax\/archived_blog_posts\/4\/252617\/2015","view_base_path":null,"view_dom_id":"30c752b9dfe690c11f1f4f7a0a580cd3ea14a8409ca8d3b95bb0c8df94e5ff26","pager_element":0}}},"viewsAjaxGet":{"blog_posts":"blog_posts"},"user":{"uid":0,"permissionsHash":"e331052eb0a1bc4b2feb3d0cfc1f0f2f6ec5dfd9a50125d1397e4ccee31da7be"}},"merge":true},{"command":"add_css","data":[{"rel":"stylesheet","media":"all","href":"\/sites\/default\/files\/css\/css_sgviVl_37H6Ta5Bl-lc7uAkjneU0Dj6JvASOxbgV9L8.css?delta=0\u0026language=en\u0026theme=cfr_theme\u0026include=eJwry0wtL9YvA5F6ufkppTmpOmBOfGJWYkV8emqJPowBFc_MS8vMyyxJjS9OLsrPyYFo1YWJ6kJEAdF1Ikc"}]},{"command":"add_js","selector":"body","data":[{"src":"\/themes\/custom\/cfr_theme\/node_modules\/jquery\/dist\/jquery.min.js?v=3.1.0"},{"src":"\/themes\/custom\/cfr_theme\/node_modules\/jquery-migrate\/dist\/jquery-migrate.min.js?v=3.1.0"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/once\/once.min.js?v=1.0.1"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupalSettingsLoader.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupal.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupal.init.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/tabbable\/index.umd.min.js?v=6.2.0"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/progress.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/loadjs\/loadjs.min.js?v=4.2.0"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/debounce.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/announce.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/message.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/ajax.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/themes\/contrib\/stable\/js\/ajax.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/modules\/contrib\/views_ajax_get\/views_ajax_get.js?tcwifo"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/jquery-form\/jquery.form.min.js?v=4.3.0"},{"src":"\/core\/modules\/views\/js\/base.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/modules\/views\/js\/ajax_view.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/modules\/contrib\/views_infinite_scroll\/js\/infinite-scroll.js?v=10.2.11"}]},{"command":"insert","method":"html","selector":".blog-series__accordion-item[data-year=\u00222015\u0022] .blog-series__accordion-body","data":"\u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-element-container\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-view-dom-id-30c752b9dfe690c11f1f4f7a0a580cd3ea14a8409ca8d3b95bb0c8df94e5ff26\u0022\u003E\n  \n  \n  \n\n  \n  \n  \n\n  \u003Cdiv data-drupal-views-infinite-scroll-content-wrapper class=\u0022views-infinite-scroll-content-wrapper clearfix\u0022\u003E\n\n\n\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/energy-and-environment\/climate-change\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            Climate Change\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/top-ten-stories-south-asia-2015 \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            The Top Ten Stories in South Asia, 2015\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2015\/12\/TopTen_SouthAsia_Afghanistan_IS.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EEach of the past two years, I\u2019ve done a roundup of the developments and stories that mattered the most in South Asia. In 2014, India\u2019s historic national election and the coming together of Afghanistan\u2019s hard-won unity government topped my list. The year before, Indian women\u2019s political activism, and Nawaz Sharif\u2019s election in Pakistan\u2019s first transfer of power from one civilian to another, were my top two picks. Looking back at those posts compared with the ten events I\u2019ve selected for 2015, this year suggests a markedly less hopeful mood. The most chilling development has been the steady trickle of reports about the self-proclaimed Islamic State and its presence in the region, particularly in Afghanistan, border areas of Pakistan, and possibly in Bangladesh. Other developments in India, Nepal, Sri Lanka, and Maldives present a mixed picture of both progress and setbacks. Here is my selection of 2015\u2019s most consequential stories in South Asia:\n\n\n\n\t\u003Cem\u003ESecurity deteriorates in Afghanistan:\u003C\/em\u003E In December 2014, President Barrack Obama ceremonially marked the end of the U.S. combat mission in Afghanistan, as did the North Atlantic Treaty Organization. The U.S. troop presence \u201ctransitioned\u201d to a train and support role, with the intention of completing troop withdrawal by the end of 2016. But grim news from Afghanistan, including a resurgent Taliban and \u201clittle nests\u201d of the Islamic State, led Obama to revise his plan in October. Afghanistan\u2019s unity government remains dysfunctional and without a full cabinet; the Taliban stepped up attacks (despite the belated revelation this year that Mullah Omar had died some two years ago), and hopes for a secure and stable Afghanistan in the near term have dimmed. In a tragic sign of the country\u2019s situation, by year\u2019s end, Afghans had become the second largest population of migrants after Syrians seeking refuge in Europe.\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\u003Cem\u003EModi juggernaut slows, narrative returns to earth:\u003C\/em\u003E In 2015, Indian Prime Minister Narendra Modi continued to successfully project India overseas, but faced a changed narrative at home. The expectations that he would be able to usher in transformational \u201cbig bang\u201d economic reform proved unrealistic as his government found itself stymied by uproar in parliament\u2019s upper house. Modi government officials spoke of \u201ccreative incrementalism\u201d as the cumulative effect of a series of smaller reforms and performance improvements instead. Politically, hopes for continued gains by the Bharatiya Janata Party in state-level elections were dashed when the populist Aam Aadmi Party won Delhi by a landslide in February, and a \u201cgrand alliance\u201d of regional parties swept Bihar in November. In the second half of the year, Modi\u2019s much-delayed response to a shocking murder of a Muslim man merely suspected of eating beef\u2014among the most visible of a series of similar incidents\u2014led to a significant and politically polarized public debate in India and abroad over whether the country was growing more intolerant.\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\u003Cem\u003EIndia\u2019s economy fastest growing in the world, top foreign direct investment (FDI) destination:\u003C\/em\u003E Even as expectations changed in India, and as political problems became more salient for the Modi government, the Indian economy chugged ahead to become the world\u2019s fastest-growing major economy, growing at 7.4 percent in the third quarter of 2015, overtaking China. It also became the world\u2019s top foreign direct investment destination, according to the \u003Cem\u003EFinancial Times\u003C\/em\u003E, as announced FDI commitments to India surged to $31 billion in the first half of 2015. Those figures more than double India\u2019s FDI levels from the first half of 2014.\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\u003Cem\u003EChina and Pakistan announce vast \u201ceconomic corridor\u201d project:\u003C\/em\u003E In April, Chinese President Xi Jinping visited Pakistan and announced a major investment package of some $46 billion. China has been Pakistan\u2019s \u201call-weather friend\u201d for decades, but the April announcement promised infrastructure developments of another order. The vision will link western China down to the Arabian Sea through a \u201cChina Pakistan Economic Corridor\u201d that will require roads from Pakistan\u2019s Gwadar deep water port all the way up through the Karakorum Highway linking Pakistan to China via hairpin turns carved into Himalayan mountainsides.\n\n\t\u003Cem\u003ENepal suffers massive earthquake:\u003C\/em\u003E On April 25 a massive quake measuring\u00a07.8 on the Richter scale shook Nepal. Its epicenter was forty-eight miles (seventy-seven kilometers) northwest of Kathmandu. Homes and ancient buildings crumbled; nearly nine thousand people were killed, 2.8 million displaced, and more than 600,000 homes were destroyed. Despite an outpouring of international support, delays in distributing aid with in the country led to criticism. Tourism, a mainstay of the Nepali economy, has not returned to its earlier levels. The passage of a new constitution\u2014eight years in the making\u2014led not to strengthening of democracy, but mass protests from Nepal\u2019s Madhesis; a supply blockade at the India-Nepal border has further resulted in economic disruption. By the end of the year, concerns about Nepal\u2019s economy had grown, even as the country had not yet managed to fully rebuild from the April tragedy.\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\u003Cem\u003EBloggers and foreigners assassinated in Bangladesh:\u003C\/em\u003E Bangladesh\u2019s political problems worsened in 2015. During the first half of the year, an astonishingly gruesome series of murders made international headlines as small groups of machete-wielding terrorists targeted secular and\/or atheist bloggers for assassination. By September and October foreigners became the targets, and later in October a bomb exploded during a Shia procession. Following the September and October attacks, the Islamic State has claimed responsibility, but the Bangladeshi government has\u00a0stated instead that the violence must be the work of domestic groups. Concerns about Bangladesh\u2019s security have now become the headline.\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\u003Cem\u003ESri Lankans unseat strongman Rajapaksa, elect \u201ccombined opposition\u201d in surprise outcome:\u003C\/em\u003E On January 9, Sri Lanka\u2019s Maithripala Sirisena defeated ten-year incumbent President Mahinda Rajapaksa. It was an upset by any measure. Sirisena previously served in the Rajapaksa cabinet, but defected along with more than twenty other members of parliament to form an opposition coalition only two months before the January polls. Rajapaksa conceded graciously. The results represent a victory for Sri Lankan democracy. Under Sirisena, Sri Lanka has also \u201crebalanced\u201d its foreign relations, rebuilding its ties with India\u2014badly frayed by 2014\u2014as well as with the global human rights community. In a step unimaginable a year back, in September Colombo even cosponsored a consensus resolution in the UN Human Rights Council on accountability for rights violations in Sri Lanka during the war.\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\u003Cem\u003EIndia emerges as a leader in Paris climate negotiations, deal reached:\u003C\/em\u003E India has been willing, in previous multilateral negotiations, to say \u201cno\u201d to deals, no matter the consequences for global consensus. The India that arrived in Paris for the Conference of Parties negotiation on climate showed up with a different plan, including a proactive proposal for a new international solar alliance, which Modi inaugurated with French President Francois Hollande. Over the more than two weeks of deliberations India was a voice for the developing countries, and pushed for its priorities, but focused on a deal. The outcome\u2014a global climate agreement\u2014provides a good indication of how India\u2019s new ambition of being a \u201cleading power, rather than just a balancing power\u201d is already positioning it to shape outcomes.\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\u003Cem\u003ERaheel Sharif rises, Nawaz Sharif sinks in sadly predictable setback for Pakistani democracy:\u003C\/em\u003E As the \u003Cem\u003EWall Street Journal\u003C\/em\u003E put it, \u201cPowerful General Raheel Sharif Eclipses Pakistan\u2019s Prime Minister.\u201d Though General Sharif had been in place since 2013, it was not until this year that his profile appeared to shine brighter than the democratically-elected Nawaz Sharif. But Nawaz became hobbled domestically by street protests throughout 2014, and the military clipped his foreign policy efforts to build better ties with India. In 2015, Pakistan\u2019s military once again rose in prominence as the institution that can \u201cdeliver,\u201d and General Raheel Sharif became the subject of social media memes and \u201ccult hero\u201d tributes.\n\n\n\n\n\n\t\u003Cem\u003EMaldives court sentences former president to prison in Kafkaesque trial:\u003C\/em\u003E In a continued setback to Maldives\u2019 nascent democracy, former President Mohamed Nasheed remained in prison at the end of 2015, despite the high-profile efforts of his legal team led by Amal Clooney, who has single-handedly helped this case gain visibility it might not have enjoyed otherwise. In March, a Maldivian court sentenced Nasheed to thirteen years\u2019 imprisonment on the charge of terrorism relating to his actions in office when he ordered the arrest of a judge. The trial itself was ridden with numerous irregularities. The UN Human Rights Council Working Group on Arbitrary Detention issued an opinion in favor of Nasheed in September.\n\n\n\n\u003Cem\u003EFollow me on Twitter:\u00a0\u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003E@AyresAlyssa\u003C\/em\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/alyssa-ayres\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EAlyssa Ayres\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 22, 2015\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/asia-unbound\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            Asia Unbound\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/asia\/japan\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            Japan\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/domestic-political-obstacles-and-us-role-improving-japan-korea-relations \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Domestic Political Obstacles and the U.S. Role in Improving Japan-Korea Relations\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2015\/12\/2-Japan-Korea.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EDespite the resumption of high-level Japan-South Korea ties with the holding of a \u201ccold summit\u201d in Seoul last month between South Korean President Park Geun-hye and Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, prospects for a breakthrough in Japan-South Korea relations remain distant on the fiftieth anniversary of diplomatic normalization between Seoul and Tokyo. If anything, the gap between Park and Abe on how to address the issue of comfort women has grown deeper, despite a realization on the part of both governments that the issue must be managed as one part of a broader relationship rather than be allowed to block all forms of cooperation between the two sides.\n\nThe United States had a critical role in promoting a normalized relationship between Tokyo and Seoul in 1965 as the conflict in Vietnam was heating up. Likewise, the combination of China\u2019s assertiveness and the U.S. rebalance has enhanced U.S. interest in a stable relationship between South Korea and Japan today.\n\nTwo papers commissioned by the Council on Foreign Relations on these issues highlight the challenges and stakes involved in effective management of relations between Tokyo and Seoul. Seoul National University professor and prominent Japan specialist Park Cheol-hee traces past downturns in relations between Tokyo and Seoul that have coincided with past anniversaries of diplomatic normalization in his paper, \u201cStill Distant Neighbors: South Korea-Japan Relations Fifty Years After Diplomatic Normalization.\u201d Park sees domestic politics in both countries acting as a spoiler in efforts to improve Japan-South Korea relations. Nevertheless, Park sees stepped up U.S.-Japan-ROK trilateral cooperation and the need for stepped up mutual public-relations campaign efforts by both governments to promote positive attitudes among both publics toward each other. Finally, he urges accelerated negotiations to resolve the comfort women issue, which has emerged as the main obstacle dividing Prime Minister Abe and President Park.\n\nAsia expert Mark Manyin\u2019s paper, \u201cManaging Japan-South Korea Tensions,\u201d evaluates the U.S. role and interest in promoting a stable relationship between South Korea and Japan, arguing that costs of poor Japan-ROK relations are rising, requiring a response. Manyin considers four distinct roles and approaches that might frame U.S. intervention: the United States as a role model in catalyzing examination of historical issues, the United States as a referee that serves to bound detrimental Japanese and South Korean actions, the United States as a mediator in promoting resolution of outstanding Japan-ROK differences, and the United States as a commissioner through generation of opportunities for trilateral U.S.-ROK-Japan interaction.\n\nAt a moment of continued stalemate in Japan-South Korea relations despite the normalization of dialogue between the two countries, both papers are worthy of careful consideration by policymakers in all three countries that are concerned with promoting stable relations in East Asia.\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Scott A. Snyder\u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 22, 2015\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/asia-unbound\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            Asia Unbound\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/asia\/china\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            China\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/planning-korean-unification \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Planning for Korean Unification\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2015\/12\/2-Unification.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003E\u003Cem\u003EThis post was coauthored with Sungtae \u0022Jacky\u0022 Park, research associate for Korea studies at the Council on Foreign Relations.\u003C\/em\u003E\n\nLast week Kim Jong-un marked the fourth anniversary of his succession to leadership and his father\u2019s death in North Korea. The leadership transition reignited discussion among North Korea watchers over how and whether the regime would be able to survive. Two years later, Kim had his uncle, Jang Song-thaek, executed for treason, sparking another round of speculation over whether the execution reflected a step toward consolidation of power under or was evidence of infighting that might lead to a leadership vacuum in Pyongyang. Because North Korea\u2019s totalitarian system requires isolation to perpetuate political control yet is increasingly penetrated by markets and information, speculation about North Korea\u2019s collapse will persist, and outside observers will judge that Kim is playing a losing hand.\n\nFor this reason, policy wonks continue to discuss whether North Korea might collapse and what challenges might emerge out of such a scenario. Nevertheless, seldom discussed is how a unified Korea might behave or how the U.S.-South Korea alliance might or might not adapt, change, or even dissolve as a result of unification. Answers to these questions, of course, are speculative and are difficult to conceptualize, but Sue Mi Terry, managing director for Korea at BowerGroupAsia and former CIA analyst, seeks to tackle them straight on in her discussion paper, \u201cUnified Korea and the Future of the U.S.-South Korea Alliance.\u201d\n\nStarting with the most likely scenario that unification will occur with South Korea absorbing the North without a devastating war, Terry argues that a unified Korea would face three possible strategic choices: continuing the alliance with the United States in some form, becoming an independent regional power, and tilting toward China. A multilateral security arrangement or a collective security mechanism is unlikely to materialize as an option.\n\n\u003Cem\u003E1. Continuing the alliance with the United States:\u003C\/em\u003E In this scenario, Korea continues its alliance with the United States in some form. Seoul could seek to continue the alliance for many reasons. A unified Korea would still need a nuclear umbrella and would have to deal with other great powers in Northeast Asia, namely China, Russia, and Japan. The alliance would also reduce Seoul\u2019s defense burden. Unification, however, might alter the alliance, as calls to withdraw U.S. troops from the Korean peninsula might emerge in Washington. In addition, without the North Korean threat, the alliance could likely be geared even more toward common objectives beyond Northeast Asia to other parts of the world.\n\n\u003Cem\u003E2. Becoming an independent regional power:\u003C\/em\u003E In this scenario, Korea discards its alliance with the United States, seeks to pursue an independent foreign policy as a nonaligned power, and even possibly keeps North Korea\u2019s nuclear weapons. This scenario could come about as a result of increasing capability, confidence, and nationalism of Korean people. An independent Korea would develop closer relations with China and Russia while moving away from the United States, pitting the great powers against each other. This scenario could be destabilizing for the region. A unified Korea could also seek to become a balance end conciliator between the great powers. Terry concludes that this scenario is less likely than the first.\n\n\u003Cem\u003E3. Tilting toward China:\u003C\/em\u003E In this scenario, a unified Korea moves away from the United States and aligns with China instead, given that China has a robust economic relationship with South Korea and is a rising military power in the region. Furthermore, there is a strong strain of anti-Americanism, which remains a sizable minority sentiment, in Korea. Terry, however, argues that this scenario is the least likely because Koreans are wary of Chinese domination of their country. More problems relating to resources and border disputes could also arise if Korean unification occurs.\n\nTerry concludes her paper by arguing that the United States has an interest in maintaining its alliance with Korea even after unification because the alliance is a force for stability in the region. To ensure that the two countries retain their alliance after Korean unification, she recommends that the United States prepare for all Korean unification scenarios, work to upgrade and broaden the current U.S.-Korea alliance, commit in advance to preserve the nuclear umbrella over unified Korea, commit to aid Korea during the process of unification, form a trilateral contact group of officials from Washington, Seoul, and Tokyo on post-unification security on the Korean peninsula, and eventually bring China into the contact group.\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Scott A. Snyder\u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 21, 2015\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/asia-unbound\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            Asia Unbound\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\n\n\n\t\t  \t  \u003Cli class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n\t    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/asia\/china\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            China\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/friday-asia-update-five-stories-week-december-18-2015 \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Friday Asia Update: Five Stories From the Week of December 18, 2015\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2015\/12\/Hyeon-Soo-Lim-gets-life-sentence-North-Korea-12-18-15.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003E\u003Cem\u003EAshlyn Anderson, Rachel Brown, Ariella Rotenberg, Ayumi Teraoka, Gabriel Walker, and James West look at five stories from\u00a0Asia this week.\u003C\/em\u003E\n\n\u003Cstrong style=\u0022line-height: 1.5;\u0022\u003E1. Canadian pastor sentenced by North Korea to life in prison with hard labor. \u003C\/strong\u003EHyeon Soo Lim, a Canadian pastor, was sentenced to a\u00a0life term of hard labor by the highest court in the Democratic People\u2019s Republic of Korea. After a ninety-minute trial, Lim was convicted of crimes against the state that included running a human rights campaign against North Korea in cooperation with the United States and South Korea, as well as assisting defectors who wished to leave North Korea. A video was circulated of Lim admitting his guilt in what is suspected to be a staged confession. The Canadian government is doing what it can to negotiate his release and repatriation, and has characterized his sentence as \u201cunduly harsh\u201d particularly given Lim\u2019s \u201cage and fragile health.\u201d\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E2. Pakistan surprised by inclusion in \u201cIslamic military alliance.\u201d \u003C\/strong\u003EIn a rare press conference on Tuesday, Saudi Deputy Crown Prince and Defense Minister Mohammad bin Salman announced the formation of an \u201cIslamic military alliance,\u201d with a permanent base in Riyadh that will coordinate the efforts of thirty-four Muslim countries to combat global terrorism, including providing assistance with military training and equipment and countering violent extremism\u00a0messaging. Pakistan\u2014along with several other countries, including Indonesia and Malaysia\u2014was caught off guard by the announcement of a military alliance, with reports indicating that Saudi Arabia had reached out to states simply to establish a coordination center and that senior officials and lawmakers learned about it from news reports. On Thursday, the Foreign Office confirmed Pakistan\u2019s support for the alliance, but cautioned that Pakistan \u201cis awaiting further details to decide the extent of its participation in different activities in the alliance\u201d and it is unlikely Pakistan will send combat troops abroad. Earlier this year, Pakistan declined a Saudi request for troops, naval, and aircraft support for its intervention in Yemen against Houthi rebels.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E3. Xinjiang mine attack suspect spoke of jihad. \u003C\/strong\u003EChinese state media released a video of one of the alleged perpetrators of a September knife attack at Sogan coal mine in northwestern Xinjiang. As many as fifty people are believed to have died in the attack, which sparked an eight-week manhunt for the attackers. In the video, the sole suspect to have surrendered, Turghun Emet, describes his motives in Uighur. \u201cIf we die when we do jihad, then we will go to heaven\u2026 At that time, they gave me a knife. There was a knife in everyone\u2019s hands\u2014if you cut someone, kill someone, then you will be a martyr and go to heaven.\u201d Twenty-eight other terrorists died during the manhunt. Concerns about terrorism, and particularly the Islamic State group, have increased in China following the killing of a Chinese hostage held by the Islamic State in November and the release of a chant in Mandarin exhorting Chinese Muslims to \u201ctake up weapons to fight.\u201d Chinese officials recently cited the Xinjiang mine attack and manhunt as evidence to compare their nation\u2019s experiences with terrorism to other incidents such as the Paris attacks.\n\n\u003Cstrong style=\u0022line-height: 1.5;\u0022\u003E4. Japanese journalist found not guilty for defaming South Korean president.\u00a0\u003C\/strong\u003ETatsuya Kato, former Seoul bureau-chief of the \u003Cem style=\u0022line-height: 1.5;\u0022\u003ESankei Shimbun,\u003C\/em\u003E was acquitted of a charge of defaming South Korean President Park Geun-hye. This decision came amidst the two governments\u2019 efforts to improve relations, and led the South Korean Ministry of Foreign Affairs (MOFA) to\u00a0appeal to its Ministry of Justice for leniency in the case. In October 2014, Kato was indicted for his online article on Park\u2019s whereabouts on the day of the Sewol ferry disaster, in particular regarding\u00a0the mysterious seven hours during which\u00a0she was missing. The article introduced a scandalous rumor that she may have been with her former secretary, quoting a\u00a0column published\u00a0by the \u003Cem style=\u0022line-height: 1.5;\u0022\u003EChosun Ilbo\u003C\/em\u003E, a major Korean newspaper. Kato was barred from leaving the country until April 2015, and this fueled Japanese public anger towards South Korea for its lack of freedom of press, worsening an already deteriorated bilateral relations due to complicated issues of history. Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe took this incident so seriously that he met with Kato the day after he returned to Japan in April. Although both Abe and South Korean MOFA viewed the court\u2019s decision positively, the Japanese public, as represented both in conservative and liberal newspapers, still remains unhappy about\u00a0the\u00a0prosecution itself.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E5. To cut smog in New Delhi, India restricts vehicle use\u003C\/strong\u003E. On Wednesday, the Supreme Court of India passed a number of temporary restrictions on vehicle use in Delhi in order to address the capital\u2019s dire air pollution problem. The move included a ban on some diesel vehicles and SUVs, old \u201ctransport vehicles,\u201d and an increased tax on commercial vehicles. Additionally, all taxis operating in the city must switch from gasoline or diesel to compressed natural gas by March of 2016. Though international media frequently make\u00a0Beijing\u00a0out to be Asia\u2019s most important battleground in\u00a0the\u00a0fight against air pollution, the World Health Organization reported in 2014 that Delhi\u2019s mean annual concentration of PM2.5, the smallest and potentially most dangerous particles, was nearly three times that of Beijing. Beginning on January 1, Delhi will implement a Beijing-like, odd-even license-plate restriction system, and also has plans to close a coal-fired power plant and further upgrade vehicle emissions standards. But because vehicles in Delhi only produce about a quarter of PM2.5 pollution, and the majority comes from industry, road dust, and burning firewood, and\u00a0other sources, the vehicle restrictions are just a first step to clearing the city\u2019s smoggy skies.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003EBonus: South Koreans are living through the experience of death.\u003C\/strong\u003E In response to high suicide rates, \u201cfake funerals\u201d are now being offered to South Koreans as a way to reflect on their lives and contemplate the reality of death. Providers of the service offer coffins for clients to lay in as they mediate on death. High amounts of professional stress and social pressure have\u00a0led to increased suicide rates, giving\u00a0South Korea the nickname the \u201csuicide capital of the developed world.\u201d The near-death experience encourages clients to imagine their deaths by writing letters to their friends and family before walking out to the graveyard and entering their coffins. By offering a near-death experience, the goal of the service is to bring clients a new appreciation and relationship with life.\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Guest Blogger for Asia Unbound\u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 18, 2015\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/asia-unbound\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            Asia Unbound\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t  \t  \u003Cli class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n\t    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/asia\/thailand\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            Thailand\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/us-ambassador-thailand-investigated-lese-majeste \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            U.S. Ambassador to Thailand Investigated for L\u00e8se Majest\u00e9\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2015\/12\/glyn-davies-thailand.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003ELast week, in a move that was shocking despite the cooling U.S.-Thailand relationship, the Thai government announced that the U.S. ambassador in Bangkok, Glyn Davies, was being investigated on suspicion of having insulted King Bhumibhol Adulyadej. Ambassador Davies had spoken to the Foreign Correspondents Club of Thailand in late November. During his talk, according to the \u003Cem\u003ENew York Times\u003C\/em\u003E, Davies criticized the \u201clong prison sentences handed to some of those found guilty of criticizing [the] king\u201d under Thailand\u2019s l\u00e8se majest\u00e9 laws, generally considered the harshest in the world. (This past weekend, Human Rights Watch warned that one prominent critic of the junta had disappeared after being questioned on l\u00e8se majest\u00e9 charges.)\n\nAmbassador Davies enjoys diplomatic immunity, so even if he is found guilty of l\u00e8se majest\u00e9, he will not be tried and punished under Thai law. However, Thai authorities have hinted that the investigation will continue and that Davies could be subject to some kind of reprimand from the government. Still, it remains unclear what such a reprimand would entail.\n\nDoes the investigation of the United States\u2019 ambassador suggest that U.S.-Thai relations are deteriorating even more rapidly than some Thailand observers fear? Certainly, the bilateral relationship is at one of its lowest ebbs in years, with the Obama administration having taken a relatively tough stance against the military junta since the May 2014 coup---a stance that clearly rankles Prime Minister Prayuth Chan-ocha and many other senior Thai military leaders. For example, even though the junta has cracked down hard on public protests in Bangkok, it has allowed a group of conservative, royalist demonstrators to gather in front of the U.S. embassy, holding profane signs and launching profane chants against the United States and the U.S. ambassador. The fact that these royalists are allowed to protest, in the heart of Bangkok, suggests that at least some members of the junta are extremely angry with the White House\u2019s cooler approach toward Thailand.\n\nBut the investigation into Ambassador Davies also highlights another significant problem in Thailand today---even the royalist, authoritarian government is increasingly losing control of how the l\u00e8se majest\u00e9 law is applied. To be sure, the Prayuth government appears to be using the law to stifle some forms of dissent, according to numerous human rights groups. But it is not always clear that the government wants all the l\u00e8se majest\u00e9 cases to go forward. Although the law supposedly protects the king and other top members of the monarchy (even though the king himself has publicly questioned whether he should be above criticism), anyone can file a l\u00e8se majest\u00e9 claim against anyone whom they believe has somehow damaged the Thai monarchy under the law\u2019s vague clauses. In recent years, many private Thai citizens have launched l\u00e8se majest\u00e9 claims against other Thais, and against some foreigners.\n\nIn fact, the number of l\u00e8se majest\u00e9 cases has jumped over the past decade. Since the May 2014 coup, Thailand\u2019s military courts, which have taken over most of the judicial proceedings and which apparently want to appear as protective as the monarchy as possible, have been issuing the harshest sentences for l\u00e8se majest\u00e9 in modern Thai history. In the Davies case, it appears that the case was initiated by a private citizen, a known arch-royalist.\n\nSince Prayuth\u2019s government\u2019s legitimacy is based in significant part on its vow to protect the monarchy and---though this part is left unsaid---oversee a peaceful and orderly transition to the next king, it can hardly ignore l\u00e8se majest\u00e9 claims. The government cannot ignore l\u00e8se majest\u00e9 allegations even if those claims appear pointless or potentially detrimental to Thailand\u2019s strategic interests. In other words, an arch-royalist government led by a military man cannot even dictate how the l\u00e8se majest\u00e9 law is utilized, a sign of Thailand\u2019s increasingly out of control politics.\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/joshua-kurlantzick\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EJoshua Kurlantzick\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 18, 2015\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/asia-unbound\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            Asia Unbound\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n    \n\u003Cul class=\u0022js-pager__items pager\u0022 data-drupal-views-infinite-scroll-pager\u003E\n  \u003Cli class=\u0022pager__item\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Ca class=\u0022button\u0022 href=\u0022?page=1\u0022 title=\u0022Load more items\u0022 rel=\u0022next\u0022\u003ELoad More\u003C\/a\u003E\n  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\u003C\/ul\u003E\n\n\n  \n  \n\n  \n  \n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n","settings":null}]