[{"command":"settings","settings":{"pluralDelimiter":"\u0003","suppressDeprecationErrors":true,"ajaxPageState":{"libraries":"eJwry0wtL9YvA5F6ufkppTmpOmBOfGJWYkV8emqJPowBFc_MS8vMyyxJjS9OLsrPyYFo1YWJ6kJEAdF1Ikc","theme":"cfr_theme","theme_token":null},"ajaxTrustedUrl":[],"views":{"ajax_path":"\/views\/ajax","ajaxViews":{"views_dom_id:ff8f85db1001ff5c10a63255e109d12785bdabfaaac7b158d526486e42463b54":{"view_name":"blog_posts","view_display_id":"block_archived_blog_posts","view_args":"4\/255080\/2011","view_path":"\/custom\/ajax\/archived_blog_posts\/4\/255080\/2011","view_base_path":null,"view_dom_id":"ff8f85db1001ff5c10a63255e109d12785bdabfaaac7b158d526486e42463b54","pager_element":0}}},"viewsAjaxGet":{"blog_posts":"blog_posts"},"user":{"uid":0,"permissionsHash":"e331052eb0a1bc4b2feb3d0cfc1f0f2f6ec5dfd9a50125d1397e4ccee31da7be"}},"merge":true},{"command":"add_css","data":[{"rel":"stylesheet","media":"all","href":"\/sites\/default\/files\/css\/css_sgviVl_37H6Ta5Bl-lc7uAkjneU0Dj6JvASOxbgV9L8.css?delta=0\u0026language=en\u0026theme=cfr_theme\u0026include=eJwry0wtL9YvA5F6ufkppTmpOmBOfGJWYkV8emqJPowBFc_MS8vMyyxJjS9OLsrPyYFo1YWJ6kJEAdF1Ikc"}]},{"command":"add_js","selector":"body","data":[{"src":"\/themes\/custom\/cfr_theme\/node_modules\/jquery\/dist\/jquery.min.js?v=3.1.0"},{"src":"\/themes\/custom\/cfr_theme\/node_modules\/jquery-migrate\/dist\/jquery-migrate.min.js?v=3.1.0"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/once\/once.min.js?v=1.0.1"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupalSettingsLoader.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupal.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupal.init.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/tabbable\/index.umd.min.js?v=6.2.0"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/progress.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/loadjs\/loadjs.min.js?v=4.2.0"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/debounce.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/announce.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/message.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/ajax.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/themes\/contrib\/stable\/js\/ajax.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/modules\/contrib\/views_ajax_get\/views_ajax_get.js?tcwifo"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/jquery-form\/jquery.form.min.js?v=4.3.0"},{"src":"\/core\/modules\/views\/js\/base.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/modules\/views\/js\/ajax_view.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/modules\/contrib\/views_infinite_scroll\/js\/infinite-scroll.js?v=10.2.11"}]},{"command":"insert","method":"html","selector":".blog-series__accordion-item[data-year=\u00222011\u0022] .blog-series__accordion-body","data":"\u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-element-container\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-view-dom-id-ff8f85db1001ff5c10a63255e109d12785bdabfaaac7b158d526486e42463b54\u0022\u003E\n  \n  \n  \n\n  \n  \n  \n\n  \u003Cdiv data-drupal-views-infinite-scroll-content-wrapper class=\u0022views-infinite-scroll-content-wrapper clearfix\u0022\u003E\n\n\n\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-no-image\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/asia\/china\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            China\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/top-ten-events-shook-asia-2011 \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            The Top Ten Events that Shook Asia in 2011\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EThe body of North Korean leader Kim Jong-il lies in state at the Kumsusan Memorial Palace in Pyongyang. (KCNA\/Courtesy Reuters)\n\nIf there were one word to describe Asia in 2011, it would likely be tremors\u2014not only the physical ones that devastated Japan, but also the political ones that reverberated throughout the region shaking India, China, and Thailand, waking up Burma, and further unsettling North Korea.\n\n\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E1. \u00a0So Long Earthlings\u003C\/strong\u003E\n\nAfter a stroke in 2008 and years of poor health, Kim Jung-il was not long for this world. Yet few anticipated that the Dear Leader\u2019s 17-year ruinous reign would end in December 2011 due to the \u201cgreat mental and physical strain caused by his uninterrupted field guidance tour\u201d while sitting on a train. With his platform shoes, puffy hair, and love of film, he was an easy target for others\u2019 mockery (see Greetings, earthlings, a classic cover from \u003Cem\u003EThe Economist\u003C\/em\u003E). Yet he consistently managed to outmaneuver Washington, Beijing, Tokyo, and Seoul\u2014testing nuclear devices, launching missiles, and demanding food and energy aid\u2014all the while impoverishing his country. It is too early to predict whether Kim Jung-un, Kim Jong-il\u2019s inexperienced and untested son and heir, will do anything differently\u2014the rest of the world and the North Korean people, in particular, can only hope.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E\u00a0\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E2. \u00a0\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EWukan, Wenzhou, and Dalian\u003C\/strong\u003E\n\nPeople protesting in China should no longer provoke surprise. After all, the country reportedly lodged 180,000 mass demonstrations in 2010 alone. Yet in 2011, three protests, in particular, reminded us of just how varied and challenging these demonstrations can be for Beijing. In July, the crash of a high speed train in Wenzhou in southern China led to a virtual protest on China\u2019s Internet. As the government appeared to try to bury the evidence, cell phone pictures, texts, and tweets made any attempt at a government cover-up futile, embarrassing Beijing and forcing a more transparent investigation of the incident. The following month saw a middle-class march in the prosperous northern city of Dalian over inadequate safeguards at a local Paraxlyene factory. With protestors numbering somewhere between 12,000 (the official number) and 70,000, the government capitulated quickly, agreeing to shut down and relocate the factory. Nothing seems to frighten officials more than a peaceful but committed group of middle-class protestors\u2026except perhaps a radicalized group of rural demonstrators. In December, the small village of Wukan caught the world\u2019s attention as the residents took control of the village, calling for an end to illegal land sales and rigged elections, and an investigation into the suspicious death of one of their leaders. After a week-long standoff, provincial officials negotiated a settlement granting the villagers all their demands. The 2011 take-away for the Chinese people may well be: protest and ye shall receive.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E3\u003C\/strong\u003E. \u00a0\u003Cstrong\u003EWaking the Middle Class\u003C\/strong\u003E\n\nFor much of the year, Anna Hazare held the Indian media and people captive as he pushed Delhi to create an independent anti-corruption agency. Throughout the summer, tens of thousands of Indians joined Hazare\u2019s anti-corruption protests in Delhi, Mumbai, Hyderabad, Bangalore, and elsewhere, upending one of the commonly accepted precepts of Indian politics: the middle class is uninterested in and alienated from political life. After badly mismanaging the protests, briefly arresting Hazare, and detaining over 1,000 of Hazare\u2019s supporters, the government conceded to his demand to create an oversight agency or Lokpal. Hazare has criticized the resulting legislation as too weak, while critics of Hazare argue that the last thing India needs is another massive bureaucracy. No matter the specific outcome of the bill, one thing is certain: Indian politicians can no longer afford to ignore the middle class.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E4. \u00a0\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EComing in from the Cold\u003C\/strong\u003E\n\nFor pure political drama in 2011, nothing can top Burmese President Thein Sein\u2019s surprising spate of political proposals. He released hundreds of political prisoners, halted construction of the unpopular Chinese-backed Myitsone Dam, initiated political reconciliation with jailed opposition leader and Nobel Peace Prize winner Aung San Suu Kyi, and opened the door to diplomatic discussions with U.S. Secretary of State Clinton. The President has promised more to come in 2012; let\u2019s hope he continues to deliver.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E5. \u00a0\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EThe Hard Landing that Wasn\u2019t\u2026Yet\u003C\/strong\u003E\n\nThe second half of 2011 was marked by increasing scrutiny of the Chinese economy, as observers looked for signs that a tipping point had been reached. The bears looked to inflation in wages and food prices, a growing property bubble, local government debt, as well as wasteful central government investment, low consumption, and falling exports. Others were more sanguine about the Chinese leadership\u2019s ability to manage their economy, arguing that the long-term fundamentals were strong even if the country had to endure short-term bumps along the way. Expect the debate to continue through 2012.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E\u00a0\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E6. \u00a0\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EThe Pivot\u003C\/strong\u003E\n\nThe talk of the summer in Asia was all about \u201cthe Pivot.\u201d A growing sense of concern over assertive Chinese rhetoric and naval activities provoked a number of Asian countries to seek deeper engagement with the United States. As America\u2019s involvement in Iraq and Afghanistan wound down, President Obama and his Asia team moved quickly to capitalize on the opportunity to strengthen traditional Asian alliances and forge new ones. In just a few short months, the U.S. achieved a significant upgrade in military relations with Australia, advanced a regional free trade agreement, the Trans-Pacific Partnership (TPP), joined the East Asia Summit, and even engaged in a diplomatic dance with Burma. Pivoting will likely turn out to be the easy part; staying the course as U.S. fiscal pressures increase and making real progress on regional trade and security issues will be the true measure of America\u2019s commitment.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E7. \u00a0The Return of the Shinawatras\u003C\/strong\u003E\n\nLast July, Thailand\u2019s poor and lower classes elected the country\u2019s first female prime minister Yingluck Shinawatra, sister of ousted premier Thaksin Shinawatra\u2014an election our colleague Josh Kurlantzick has called perhaps \u201cthe most important in the country\u2019s history.\u201d Yingluck has already received criticism for her handling of Thailand\u2019s worst flooding in five decades, but her greatest challenge likely will come next year when her brother Thaksin may return to the country. Deposed in a coup in 2006 and later convicted of corruption, Thaksin remains a politically polarizing figure, intensely disliked by many in the country\u2019s bureaucratic and military elite. How Yingluck manages her brother\u2019s return is not merely a question of smoothing politically roiled waters, but also of her own political fate.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E8. \u00a0Cyber Crime Takes Center Stage\u003C\/strong\u003E\n\nAs the list of cyberattack victims continued to grow in 2011\u2014RSA, Lockheed Martin, Northrop Grumman, Sony, the IMF, and the U.S. Chamber of Commerce, among others\u2014cybersecurity expert Dmitri Alperovitch quipped that there were two types of companies: \u201cthose that know they\u2019ve been compromised and those that don\u2019t yet know.\u201d Most of the attacks were directed at intellectual property and industrial secrets. While the Obama administration has been reluctant to assign blame, Michigan Representative Mike Rogers and the Office of the National Counterintelligence Executive recently outed Beijing as a major source of the cyber espionage. The question for 2012: if China doesn\u2019t heed this now public criticism, what else is the United States prepared to do?\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E9. \u00a0\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EAi Weiwei\u003C\/strong\u003E\n\nBeijing\u2019s detention of the artist\/activist Ai Weiwei last spring produced a public outcry that refused to die. Ai, whose artwork and political activism have long annoyed Chinese officials, was arrested in April on the grounds of \u201ceconomic crimes\u201d (later described as a failure to pay taxes). He was released in late June following a worldwide Internet campaign protesting his arrest. In November, Beijing levied a $2.4 million tax bill on Ai. Chinese citizens rose to his defense contributing $1.3 million to help pay the bill\u2014some sending the money via the Internet while others floated bills over Ai\u2019s gated house. The final outcome of Ai\u2019s judicial misadventure remains to be seen. However, as a matter of morality, the Chinese people have already turned a travesty into a triumph.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E10. \u00a0\u003C\/strong\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003EJapan: A Spring of Devastation\u003C\/strong\u003E\n\nJapan confronted an almost unimaginable set of disasters last March: a 9.0 earthquake\u2014the most powerful in Japan\u2019s history\u2014a tsunami, and a nuclear meltdown. In the face of such horror, several \u201cJapans\u201d quickly emerged: a bureaucratic elite that appeared confused and, in the final analysis, prone to cover-up; the courageous self-defense forces that responded without hesitation to the crisis; and a public that was a model of generosity and self-sacrifice. More than nine months on, the disaster continues to haunt the country with questions remaining as to the success of the clean-up effort, the safety of the country\u2019s food products, the future of its nuclear industry, and the capacity of its government to manage these and other challenges. Still, Japan has weathered worse, and we\u2019ll bet on the fundamental resilience of the Japanese people to ensure their country emerges only stronger for the tragedy that they have endured.\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Elizabeth C. Economy\u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 29, 2011\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/asia-unbound\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            Asia Unbound\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-no-image\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/asia\/china\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            China\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/ideas-about-chinas-cyber-command \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Ideas about China\u2019s Cyber Command\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EFort Meade, Maryland, which is home to U.S. Cyber Command. (Courtesy National Security Agency)\n\nChinese analysts and officials like to point out that it was the United States that first set up Cyber Command and thus, in their view, militarized cyberspace. Yet Chinese military thinkers are clearly thinking about what type of organizations and institutions they will need to conduct offensive cyber operations and to defend their own networks against attacks. An interesting piece in China Defense Daily lays out some of the characteristics necessary for \u201ca highly effective command system for cyber war mobilization.\u201d\n\n\n\n\u2022 Military and civilian networks are interconnected, and the resources needed for cyber war permeate society; military units, social organizations, and even individuals \u201cwill all possibly become combat forces during a cyber war.\u201d\n\n\u2022 Given this diffusion of resources, there is a need for a cyber war mobilization command system with a \u201cvertical command hierarchy\u201d that reaches into all of society.\n\n\u2022 Each of the branches of the military should have its own command division, manage necessary resources, cultivate forces, and organize training and drills. Once a war breaks out, there needs to be a \u201ccoordinated strategic level\u201d command structure that mobilizes resources and launches combat operations.\n\n\u2022 There must be specialized troops within industrial sectors, with especially strong ties to the information industries.\n\n\u2022 Need to enlarge specialized cyber troops, recruiting computer network experts. The PLA should also reach out to all segments of society and create cyber reserves and people\u2019s militias.\n\n\u2022 Offense and defense in cyber war have distinct characteristics, and they change frequently. Offensive technologies include computer viruses, EMP bombs, microwave bombs, and computer and microchip backdoors. \u00a0For defense, there are network scanners, network wiretapping devices, password breaking devices, electromagnetic detectors and firewalls, and anti-virus software.\n\n\u2022 Because the technological requirements of these weapons are very high, there must be extensive R\u0026D programs into new offensive weapons as well as the defensive and offensive capabilities of the potential adversary.\n\nThis is a very \u201cwhole of society\u201d approach, one which seems to fundamentally grasp that power in cyberspace is multi-faceted and spread throughout society. And while we assume that Chinese policymakers can simply mobilize these social forces to bolster state power, is that actually the case? \u00a0And if it is true now, might that change?\n\nThese types of articles (and perhaps blog posts like this one?) can be expected to feed into the growing security dilemma between the United States and China. Chinese analysts see Cyber Command and Cyber Storm exercises as directed against them. Though the tone of the article is exploratory\u2014and the author, Huang Chunping, appears to be an aerospace and nuclear expert, not a cyber specialist\u2014the take-home for many readers will be that all Chinese citizens are potential cyber warriors. Dampening a security dilemma is not easy. \u00a0Dialogue and confidence-building measures can help, but these are only at the preliminary stages right now. Hopefully they will pick up in 2012, otherwise the lack of trust between Washington and Beijing looks only to grow.\n\n(p.s.\u2014I am now worsening the security dilemma on twitter Follow @adschina)\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/adam-segal\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EAdam Segal\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 27, 2011\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/asia-unbound\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            Asia Unbound\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-no-image\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/asia\/north-korea\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            North Korea\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/kim-jong-un-survivability-scorecard-what-look \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Kim Jong-un Survivability Scorecard: What to Look For\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003ENorth Korean Leader Kim Jong-un and military officer Jang Song-taek paying their respects\u3002 (Courtesy Reuters)\n\nNow that the Korea Central News Agency (KCNA) has officially announced the start of the Kim Jong-un era, the major questions on the minds of North Korean observers revolve around the durability and sustainability of the North Korean leadership under Kim Jong-un. Another way of making judgements regarding this process is to assess whether the succession process is going according to plan. The 1994 succession experience offers the North Koreans a template for how to successfully manage succession and offers a scorecard for assessing the durability of the Kim Jong-un regime. In the first few days, the North Korean leadership has made no obvious mistakes, nor has there been any evidence that the succession process is veering off track. The North Korean media has reinforced Kim Jong-un\u2019s role, with international diplomats implicity acknowledging his position and KCNA bestowing on Kim Jong-un the titles of Great Successor and Supreme Commander. I believe that each of these elements is designed to reinforce perceptions of the inevitability of Kim Jong-un as the next leader, with the funeral being a major event designed to affirm Kim Jong-un\u2019s new role at the same time that he pays respects to his father. This will also be the first opportunity to make judgments regarding his leadership style independent of his father.\n\nBeyond the funeral ceremony, the calendar holds a series of events that North Korea will be able to use to its advantage to reinforce the centrality of Kim Jong-un and that therefore provide opportunities for external judgements regarding how the process is going, including:\n\nJan. 1: New Year\u2019s address. North Korea normally issues a joint editorial or speech by the leader assessing the challenges and goals for the year. The 2012 address may have already been written, but can be scoured for deviations from the past and for evidence of possible rewriting post Kim Jong-il\u2019s death. How the joint editorial is issued and whether Kim Jong-un might decide to personally deliver it as well as the substance it contains will offer some early clues to the actual role Kim Jong-un is and will be playing.\n\nJan. 8: Kim Jong-un\u2019s 28th birthday and his first as leader. How will it be celebrated this year, and what messages are conveyed on this date?\n\nFeb. 16: Kim Jong-il\u2019s 70th birthday. Still well within the mourning period, how will this birthday be honored and what roles will Kim Jong-un and other leaders play in any commemorations on that date?\n\nApril 15: Kim Il-sung\u2019s 100th birthday. This was to be the big celebration of the year, marking the establishment of North Korea as a \u201cstrong and prosperous state.\u201d But what are the benchmarks for assessing Kim Jong-un\u2019s performance toward that goal? Arguably, the benchmarks may shift to \u201care you better off than you were seventeen years ago?\u201d The famine that occurred in the midst of the Kim Il-sung-Kim Jong-il succession process presents an opportunity to establish a low bar for assessing Kim Jong-un\u2019s performance.\n\nBeyond these dates, what other signs should be watched? Intelligence on how the succession might be going wrong will be much harder to obtain precisely because KCNA will not be reporting it and news of internal developments in North Korea remains hard to come by. In any event, much of the activity that would spark greatest interest inevitably is likely to occur underneath the surface. However, here are a few things to watch for that might suggest things are going very badly.\n\n\n\n\tUnexplained disappearances, especially of Kim Jong-un\u2019s family members. Could be evidence of friction that would weaken allies and capability to maintain political control.\n\n\n\n\n\n\tOvert challenges to Kim Jong-un\u2019s authority or references to critical roles by individuals other than Kim Jong-un. Everyone is watching the activities of Jang Song-taek, Kim Kyong-hui, Yi Yong-ho, and Oh Kuk-ryol with special interest.\n\n\n\n\n\n\tEvidence of friction between the party and military authorities, especially between the National Defense Commission and the Workers\u2019 Party of Korea. Kim Jong-un has not received a role in the National Defense Commission, which was the seat from which his father governed. If these two organizations within the North Korean bureaucracy come into conflict, it might be evidence of a serious institutional cleavage inside North Korea.\n\n\n\n\n\n\tEvidence of new competition among various arms of the state, especially competition for external resources, and particularly with regard to the pattern by which procurements of goods from China and other external sources are managed. Follow the money; whoever is leader will need financing in order to survive. Any contender for power will need a capacity to finance his challenge or the ability to take away from his colleagues\u2019 power base.\n\n\n\n\n\n\tUnusual military activity or precursors to a coup attempt. Kim Jong-il, we learned belatedly, survived a challenge from a unit based in Hamkyungdo in the mid-1990s at the height of the famine. It was ruthlessly put down, but it is important to recognize based on that experiences that Kim Jong-un may face, and could potentially survive, such a direct challenge to his rule.\n\n\n\nThe most difficult aspect of assessing whether things are going wrong is that, like our intelligence collection capabilities which did not appear to provide effective warning that Kim Jong-il had passed away in advance of the official announcement, the critical developments that constitute a serious challenge to the Kim Jong-un leadership will also likely be lagging indicators of circumstances that have already changed. As a result, it is likely that all the parties are going to be in a reactive rather than a shaping mode, and the question is how well we are in sync regarding our assessments of the motivations and implications of the changes we see on the surface.\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Scott A. Snyder\u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 27, 2011\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/asia-unbound\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            Asia Unbound\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\n\n\n\t\t  \t  \u003Cli class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n\t    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-no-image\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/asia\/china\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            China\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/asia-behind-headlines \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Asia Behind the Headlines\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EAn employee hoses a China Railway High-speed Harmony bullet train at the high-speed train maintenance base in Wuhan, Hubei province on October 19, 2011. (Stringer Shanghai \/ Courtesy Reuters)\n\n\u003Cem\u003EJared Mondschein looks at the key stories in Asia behind the headlines.\u003C\/em\u003E\n\n-\u00a0\u003Cstrong\u003EClamping down in cyberspace:\u00a0\u003C\/strong\u003EWith more than 485 million Internet users and 300 million microbloggers, the Internet in China allows \u201cnetizens\u201d to voice their opinions on everything from Wukan to Beijing\u2019s air quality to North Korea. Beijing, however, has never been quite comfortable with such an open marketplace of ideas. Now, in an attempt to \u201cpurge online rumors and enhance social credibility,\u201d Guangzhou and Shenzhen have joined Beijing in requiring new users of China\u2019s microblogs to register with their real names. China\u2019s netizens unsurprisingly have not taken well to the clampdown, as one microblogger wrote: \u201cThere will only ever be a single voice speaking now.\u201d\n\n-\u00a0\u003Cstrong\u003EWho\u2019s the fairest of them all? \u003C\/strong\u003EThere\u2019s no doubt that the center of economic gravity in Asia is China, while the United States holds the security card for the region. But whom do regular citizens across the region prefer? According to a Gallup poll of citizens in Cambodia, Australia, South Korea, India, Malaysia, Indonesia, Thailand, Vietnam, and the Philippines, for the most part there is a higher approval for U.S. leadership: The median approval rate for U.S. leadership stands at 44 percent while China\u2019s is at 30 percent. Respondents ranked U.S. leadership more highly than Chinese in eight out of the nine countries polled.\n\n\u003Cstrong\u003E- High-speed rail slows down\u003C\/strong\u003E: This February will mark one year since Railways Minister Liu Zhijun was fired for \u201csevere violations of discipline.\u201d His dismissal was only the beginning of a terrible year for the former jewel in China\u2019s infrastructure crown. Crippling power failures and a deadly crash in July angered the people and raised questions about the potential for high speed rail to be exported abroad. Beijing recently announced that railway investment would be cut by 15 percent in 2012, suggesting that Beijing may be taking a step back from its all-out push on high-speed rail. Hopefully it will produce a new focus on quality over quantity.\n\n- \u003Cstrong\u003EForeigners\u2019 tax in China\u003C\/strong\u003E: According to the Heritage Foundation\u2019s index, China ranks 135th\u00a0in the world in economic freedoms, behind Tajikistan and Niger, among others. The government\u2019s new social security tax just for foreigners (instituted in October of this year) will certainly not contribute to a higher ranking. Many see the tax primarily as a scheme to force foreign companies to hire more Chinese workers, although Beijing is pitching it as a ticket to the opportunity for foreigners to retire in China. Foreigners don\u2019t appear to find either reason compelling; in Beijing alone the government has only succeeded so far in getting 2,000 of the approximately 30,000 foreigners in the city to pay.\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Elizabeth C. Economy\u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 23, 2011\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/asia-unbound\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            Asia Unbound\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t  \t  \u003Cli class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n\t    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-no-image\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/asia\/north-korea\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            North Korea\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/deja-vu-north-korea-succession-1994-vs-2011 \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Deja-vu in North Korea? Succession 1994 vs. 2011\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EKim Jong-il and Kim Jong-un salute during a military parade (courtesy Reuters\/KCNA)\n\nAs events unfold surrounding the succession from Kim Jong-il to Kim Jong-un, it is clear that North Korea is using the 1994 succession from Kim Il-sung to Kim Jong-il as its template for managing the current transition. However, as one observes these two parallel processes, it becomes clear that while North Korea may have this template, differing conditions in 2011 compared to those that existed in 1994 may prove fatal to successful implementation of this succession. Among the key differences in the two processes are the following:\n\n\n\n\tAt the time of Kim Il-sung\u2019s death, a 53-year old Kim Jong-il had been preparing to run the country for over two decades and had already taken over many critical facets of control over the regime. Kim Jong-un is 28 and has only been groomed for succession for less than three years.\n\n\tAt the time of Kim Il-sung\u2019s death, ideology was the guiding factor that determined loyalty of the populace, but under Kim Jong-il, money became the key means by which to ensure advancement, and patronage is the primary means by which loyalty is obtained.\n\n\tIn 1994, the public distribution system was operational, but under strain, and there were virtually no private markets. By 2011, markets are the major means of distribution and the public distribution system is operative on a relatively limited basis. North Koreans are less dependent on and trusting of the state that has long failed to provide for their livelihood.\n\n\tNorth Korea in 1994 was still an isolated society that was largely disconnected internally and with the outside world. But North Korea today is economically connected with other countries, and penetrated by information that circulates with increasing efficiency.\n\n\n\nOn this basis, it should be clear that the North Korea Kim Jong-un will lead is not his father\u2019s North Korea, but a country that has already embarked on a process of inevitable change. What is not clear is whether a collective leadership that is virtually unchanged\u2013with the exception of Kim Jong-un assuming his father\u2019s roles\u2013fully recognizes and appreciates the difficulty of the challenges they face or the necessity of transformation.\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Scott A. Snyder\u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 23, 2011\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/asia-unbound\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            Asia Unbound\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n    \n\u003Cul class=\u0022js-pager__items pager\u0022 data-drupal-views-infinite-scroll-pager\u003E\n  \u003Cli class=\u0022pager__item\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Ca class=\u0022button\u0022 href=\u0022?page=1\u0022 title=\u0022Load more items\u0022 rel=\u0022next\u0022\u003ELoad More\u003C\/a\u003E\n  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\u003C\/ul\u003E\n\n\n  \n  \n\n  \n  \n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n","settings":null}]