[{"command":"settings","settings":{"pluralDelimiter":"\u0003","suppressDeprecationErrors":true,"ajaxPageState":{"libraries":"eJwry0wtL9YvA5F6ufkppTmpOmBOfGJWYkV8emqJPowBFc_MS8vMyyxJjS9OLsrPyYFo1YWJ6kJEAdF1Ikc","theme":"cfr_theme","theme_token":null},"ajaxTrustedUrl":[],"views":{"ajax_path":"\/views\/ajax","ajaxViews":{"views_dom_id:d8e1dd1dd7d413fff12d8a0eeeec915ee60901f403d4799d3b125d3722854c32":{"view_name":"blog_posts","view_display_id":"block_archived_blog_posts","view_args":"7\/252728\/2012","view_path":"\/custom\/ajax\/archived_blog_posts\/7\/252728\/2012","view_base_path":null,"view_dom_id":"d8e1dd1dd7d413fff12d8a0eeeec915ee60901f403d4799d3b125d3722854c32","pager_element":0}}},"viewsAjaxGet":{"blog_posts":"blog_posts"},"user":{"uid":0,"permissionsHash":"e331052eb0a1bc4b2feb3d0cfc1f0f2f6ec5dfd9a50125d1397e4ccee31da7be"}},"merge":true},{"command":"add_css","data":[{"rel":"stylesheet","media":"all","href":"\/sites\/default\/files\/css\/css_sgviVl_37H6Ta5Bl-lc7uAkjneU0Dj6JvASOxbgV9L8.css?delta=0\u0026language=en\u0026theme=cfr_theme\u0026include=eJwry0wtL9YvA5F6ufkppTmpOmBOfGJWYkV8emqJPowBFc_MS8vMyyxJjS9OLsrPyYFo1YWJ6kJEAdF1Ikc"}]},{"command":"add_js","selector":"body","data":[{"src":"\/themes\/custom\/cfr_theme\/node_modules\/jquery\/dist\/jquery.min.js?v=3.1.0"},{"src":"\/themes\/custom\/cfr_theme\/node_modules\/jquery-migrate\/dist\/jquery-migrate.min.js?v=3.1.0"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/once\/once.min.js?v=1.0.1"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupalSettingsLoader.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupal.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupal.init.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/tabbable\/index.umd.min.js?v=6.2.0"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/progress.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/loadjs\/loadjs.min.js?v=4.2.0"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/debounce.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/announce.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/message.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/ajax.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/themes\/contrib\/stable\/js\/ajax.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/modules\/contrib\/views_ajax_get\/views_ajax_get.js?tcwifo"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/jquery-form\/jquery.form.min.js?v=4.3.0"},{"src":"\/core\/modules\/views\/js\/base.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/modules\/views\/js\/ajax_view.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/modules\/contrib\/views_infinite_scroll\/js\/infinite-scroll.js?v=10.2.11"}]},{"command":"insert","method":"html","selector":".blog-series__accordion-item[data-year=\u00222012\u0022] .blog-series__accordion-body","data":"\u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-element-container\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-view-dom-id-d8e1dd1dd7d413fff12d8a0eeeec915ee60901f403d4799d3b125d3722854c32\u0022\u003E\n  \n  \n  \n\n  \n  \n  \n\n  \u003Cdiv data-drupal-views-infinite-scroll-content-wrapper class=\u0022views-infinite-scroll-content-wrapper clearfix\u0022\u003E\n\n\n\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/politics-and-government\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            Politics and Government\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/world-outlook-2013 \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            World Outlook in 2013\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2012\/12\/Burnt-Car-Nigeria_617x462.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003ECFR.org just posted a conversation I had with Bernard Gwertzman about the world outlook in 2013. We discussed three sets of issues: turmoil in the greater Middle East (Egypt, Iran, Syria, and Afghanistan); rising tensions in East Asia (territorial disputes in the East China and South China seas and the U.S. \u201cpivot\u201d; and turbulence in the global economy (prompted in part by the impending \u201cfiscal cliff\u201d in the United States).\u00a0 But those three subjects hardly exhaust the list of issues that could dominate the news in the coming year. Here are five other stories I will be watching in 2013.\n\n1.\u00a0 Nigeria on the Brink. Nigeria is Africa\u2019s most populous country, with more than 170 million citizens. (That\u2019s nearly twice as many people as the next most populous country in Africa, Ethiopia, which has an estimated 90 million citizens.)\u00a0 A member of OPEC, Nigeria is the world\u2019s tenth largest oil producer and the seventh largest oil exporter. That could be the start of a real success story.\u00a0 But instead, as my colleague John Campbell shows graphically with his interactive Nigeria Security Tracker, Nigeria is experiencing an alarming growth in political violence. The radical Islamist movement Boko Haram is a big reason why, but it is hardly alone. Government soldiers, local police, warring ethnic groups, and a new generation of Niger Delta militants are also to blame. Things could get much worse in Nigeria in 2013, putting the country\u2019s shaky democracy to the test.\n\n2. \u003Cem\u003EMexico under New Leadership\u003C\/em\u003E. Enrique Pe\u00f1a Nieto\u00a0assumed the Mexican presidency back on December 1, marking the return of the Institutional Revolutionary Party (PRI) to the office it owned for most of the twentieth century. Pe\u00f1a Nieto\u00a0has vowed to boost Mexico\u2019s economic growth and to curb the violence that has killed nearly 60,000 Mexicans over the past six years. Pessimists worry that he will succeed only in returning Mexico to the corrupt ways that the last generation of PRI leaders used to hold onto the Mexican presidency for three-quarters of a century. Americans should hope that the pessimists are wrong and that Pe\u00f1a Nieto\u00a0succeeds in making Mexico more prosperous and peaceful. As my colleague Shannon O\u2019Neil likes to point out, the fates of Mexico and the United States are far more intertwined than most Americans realize. If you want to know just how entwined the two countries are, buy and read Shannon\u2019s book, \u003Cem\u003ETwo Nations Indivisible: Mexico, the United States, and the Road Ahead\u003C\/em\u003E, when it comes out in April. You will be glad that you did.\n\n3. \u003Cem\u003EThe Fracking of Ohio\u003C\/em\u003E. Technology is amazing. Five years ago the energy debate in the United States lamented the growing dependence of the United States on foreign oil and gas, and bemoaned the vulnerabilities that this was creating for the country. Today, thanks to hydraulic fracking and other technological advances, the United States is experiencing a natural gas boom and it is poised to become the world\u2019s largest oil producer in five years and a net oil exporter in eighteen. That has generated questions that policymakers hadn\u2019t\u00a0been expecting to answer, such as: Should the United States encourage the export of natural gas? Will energy independence mean that the United States can ignore what happens in the Middle East? Is the natural gas boom good news for efforts to combat climate change? Should we worry that there are earthquakes in Ohio? My colleague Michael Levi has a great book coming out in April, \u003Cem\u003EThe Power Surge: Energy, Opportunity, and the Battle for America\u2019s Future\u003C\/em\u003E, that examines these and other critical questions about the American energy boom. Mark my words\u2014\u003Cem\u003EThe Power Surge \u003C\/em\u003Ewill become a must read.\n\n4. \u003Cem\u003ECyber Insecurity\u003C\/em\u003E. We depend upon our electronic gadgets for virtually everything we do. And that makes us vulnerable. Just how vulnerable is unclear, but the potential real world consequences are immense. Here are some questions to consider:\u00a0When do cyber attacks constitute acts of war? How should governments deal with the so-called attribution problem, the fact that it can be difficult if not impossible to determine where a cyber attack originated? Can the United States and China have candid and productive discussions about cyber security given that they are both vulnerable to cyber attacks, or are the two countries destined to mistrust what each other says and does? Should U.S. firms do business with Chinese companies like Huawei and ZTE, or will that leave them open to economic espionage? My colleague Adam Segal tells me that these are just a few of the challenges unleashed by the Pandora\u2019s Box that is cyber insecurity.\n\n5. \u003Cem\u003EThe Battle for the Internet\u003C\/em\u003E. The United States, Great Britain, Japan, and a dozen other countries walked out of the World Conference on International Communications (WCIT) in Dubai earlier this month. Why? To signal their emphatic opposition to a draft treaty that would have brought the Internet under the auspices of the existing system for managing global telecommunications challenges, the International Telecommunication Union. (The ITU handles technical challenges such as making sure that national telephone systems can speak to one another.) The United States and its allies saw the draft treaty as a backdoor way to allow governments to control what can and can\u2019t be said on the Internet, which of course is precisely why China, Russia, and the United Arab Emirates pushed it. But the division that torpedoed the talks in Dubai\u00a0isn\u2019t\u00a0going away. While Western societies see freedom of speech and the free flow of information as the natural order of things, China and other authoritarian governments see speech and information as something to be curbed and controlled. They will be working hard in 2013, and on many fronts, to see that their vision of the Internet wins out.\n\nThese are the five issues on my list of stories to watch in 2013. What\u2019s on yours?\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/james-m-lindsay\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EJames M. Lindsay\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 28, 2012\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/waters-edge\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            The Water\u0026#039;s Edge\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/global-commons\/global\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            Global\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/ten-world-leaders-who-died-2012 \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Ten World Leaders Who Died in 2012\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2012\/12\/Time-Square-Ball_617x462.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003ETen people who passed away this year who shaped world affairs for better or worse.\r\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/james-m-lindsay\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EJames M. Lindsay\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 27, 2012\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/waters-edge\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            The Water\u0026#039;s Edge\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/politics-and-government\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            Politics and Government\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/ten-foreign-policy-voices-will-be-missed \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Ten Foreign Policy Voices That Will Be Missed\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2012\/12\/Singapore-New-Years-Floats_617x462.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EYear\u2019s end is a time for taking stock, counting successes and assessing failures. It is also a time for remembering those who are no longer with us. Here are ten people who died in 2012 who made significant contributions to American foreign policy. They will be missed.\n\nReginald Bartholomew (b. 1936) was an accomplished Foreign Service officer who served as U.S. ambassador to Italy, Spain, and NATO among other postings over his long career. A graduate of Dartmouth College, his most trying tour of duty came in Lebanon in the mid-1980s. He took up his position as U.S. ambassador to Lebanon on October 22, 1983, the day before a truck bomb killed 241 marines, sailors, and soldiers at the U.S. Marine barracks in Beirut. The next year he had to be pulled from the rubble after the U.S. embassy in Beirut was bombed. In 1985, he played a critical role in helping free the Americans taken hostage when members of Hezbollah and Islamic Jihad hijacked TWA Flight 847 on its way to Rome from Athens.\n\nDaniel K. Inouye (b. 1924) was a nine-term Democratic senator from Hawaii renowned for his integrity and professionalism. The son of Japanese immigrants to Hawaii, he joined the U.S. Army as soon as it lifted its ban on service by Japanese-Americans. He fought with great distinction in France and Italy, losing his right arm while leading an attack on machine gun emplacements that had his platoon pinned down. He was awarded the Distinguished Service Cross, which was upgraded to the Medal of Honor in 2000. Inouye was elected to the U.S. House of Representatives when Hawaii became a state in 1959. Three years later, he was elected to the U.S. Senate. His nearly fifty years of service in the Senate is second only to Sen. Robert Byrd\u2019s (D-WV) fifty-one years. Inouye served on the Watergate Committee and the Joint House-Senate Iran-Contra Committee, and he was appointed chair of the Senate Committee on Intelligence when it was formed in 1976 in response to intelligence agencies\u2019 power abuse scandals. His final word was \u201cAloha.\u201d\n\nNicholas Katzenbach (b. 1922) served as attorney general and undersecretary of state during the Johnson administration. A World War II war hero, graduate of Princeton University and Yale Law School, and Rhodes Scholar, Katzenbach initially worked in his family\u2019s law firm and taught law. He joined the Kennedy administration in 1961 as the assistant attorney general in charge of the Office of Legal Counsel. In that post, he wrote a brief defending the legality of the blockade Kennedy ordered during the Cuban missile crisis. He also played a critical role on civil rights issues, traveling to Mississippi in 1962 to help enforce the federal order that James Meredith be admitted to the University of Mississippi as its first black student. Katzenbach also defended the 1964 Civil Rights Act before the Supreme Court and helped draft the Voting Rights Act of 1965. After President Kennedy\u2019s assassination, Katzenbach became so close to President Johnson that LBJ was known to ask his other advisers, \u201cWhy can\u2019t you be like Nick Katzenbach?\u201d Katzenbach served as attorney general in 1965-1966. LBJ then appointed him undersecretary of state. He became one of the members of \u201cthe Non-Group,\u201d the inner circle of administration advisers that discussed Vietnam strategy.\n\nSpurgeon Keeny (b. 1924) was an expert on arms control and proliferation who served under six presidents and championed the cause of arms control. Keeny joined the Air Force in 1948 with a master\u2019s degree in physics from Columbia University and a background in Soviet studies. One of his first jobs while in the Air Force was analyzing the results of the first Soviet nuclear test in 1949. Over the next three decades he held a variety of government positions, eventually becoming deputy director of the Arms Control and Disarmament Agency under President Jimmy Carter. Keeny participated in negotiations for several arms control treaties, including the Nuclear Nonproliferation Treaty, SALT I, and SALT II. He left government service after Carter\u2019s reelection defeat. In 1985, he became president of the Arms Control Association, a post he held until 2001. Keeny raised the ACA\u2019s visibility, expanded the reach of its flagship journal, Arms Control Today, and mentored a generation of national security experts.\n\nGeorge McGovern (b. 1922) was the longshot anti-war candidate who captured the Democratic presidential nomination in 1972. He lost the general election to President Richard Nixon in an epic landslide\u2014McGovern won just\u00a017 electoral votes and Nixon racked up the largest share of the popular vote (61.3 percent) ever recorded. (After Nixon became embroiled in the Watergate scandal, McGovern\u2019s drubbing prompted two classic bumper stickers: \u201cNixon 49, America 1\u201d and \u201cDon\u2019t Blame Me, I\u2019m from Massachusetts.\u201d) McGovern was elected to the U.S. Senate from South Dakota in 1962 and served three terms. He was one of the first senators to question the wisdom of the Vietnam War. In 1970, he cosponsored legislation that would have cut off funding the war and brought America\u2019s involvement in Vietnam to an end. In 1997, President Bill Clinton appointed McGovern ambassador to the United Nations Food and Agriculture Organization. In recent years, McGovern criticized the wisdom of the wars in Afghanistan and Iraq. While McGovern is remembered for his staunch anti-war views, he himself was a war hero. He volunteered for the U.S. Army Air Forces at the start of World War II, flew nearly three dozen combat missions over Europe, and was awarded the Distinguished Flying Cross.\n\nStanley R. Resor (b. 1917) was secretary of the army from 1965 to 1971, during the height of the Vietnam War. A graduate of Yale College and Yale Law School, he joined the army during World War II, fought at the Battle of the Bulge, and was awarded the Bronze Star, Silver Star, and a Purple Heart. Although Resor was a Republican, he was appointed secretary of the army by President Johnson. After the infamous My Lai massacre in 1968, Resor ordered an investigation of the incident. He ultimately rejected the recommendation that dozens of officers be court-martialed for covering up the atrocity. Resor was involved in the planning for the all-volunteer army, ended racial discrimination at off-base housing in Germany, and nominated the first two female army general officers. After a brief stint in the private sector, he returned to government service in 1973, serving as the U.S. ambassador in charge of negotiating troop reductions in Europe. He also served as the undersecretary of defense for policy, the number three position in the Defense Department, in 1978-79. Resor chaired the Arms Control Association from 1992 to 2000, championing arms control negotiations and opposing NATO expansion for unnecessarily damaging U.S. relations with Russia.\n\nWarren B. Rudman (b. 1930) was the vice chairman of the Joint House-Senate Iran-Contra Committee. A graduate of Syracuse University, he joined the army during the Korean War, where he was awarded a Bronze Star for bravery. He was first elected to the Senate in 1980 and served two terms. He was best known for his efforts to balance the federal budget. His signal foreign policy moment came while serving on the congressional committee investigating the Iran-Contra affair. Rudman chose not to side with fellow Republicans and instead joined the majority report, which said that President Reagan\u2019s aides purposefully broke the law by selling weapons to Iran and giving the proceeds to anticommunist forces in Nicaragua. After leaving the Senate in 1993, Rudman served as a member of the Foreign Intelligence Advisory Board during the Clinton administration. He was also co-chairman (with former senator Gary Hart) of the U.S. Commission on National Security\/21st Century, which issued a report just before September 11 warning of the possibility of a terrorist attack on the United States.\n\nAnthony Shadid (b. 1968) was a two-time Pulitzer Prize-winning journalist renowned for his feel for Arab life. Born and raised in Oklahoma City to Lebanese immigrants, he graduated from the University of Wisconsin, Madison. He reported on the Middle East for the Associated Press, the \u003Cem\u003EBoston Globe\u003C\/em\u003E, and the \u003Cem\u003EWashington Post\u003C\/em\u003E before joining the \u003Cem\u003ENew York Times\u003C\/em\u003E in 2009. He won his first Pulitzer Prize for international reporting in 2004 for his coverage of the Iraq War. He won again in 2010 for his coverage of the U.S. withdrawal from Iraq. Shadid often risked his life to cover a story. He was shot in 2002 while reporting from the West Bank. In March 2011, he and three colleagues were captured by Qaddafi\u2019s forces in Libya and held for six days. Shadid died of an asthma attack while reporting firsthand on fighting inside Syria.\n\nHelmut Sonnenfeldt (b. 1926), was a long-time State Department official and Soviet expert. He left his native Germany as a schoolboy to escape Nazi anti-Semitism, eventually making his way to Baltimore. He joined the army, serving first in the Philippines and then in Germany because the army desperately needed German speakers. While in Germany, he met future Secretary of State Henry Kissinger, and the two formed a lifelong (though at time contentious) friendship. After leaving the army, Sonnenfeldt earned bachelor\u2019s and master\u2019s degrees from Johns Hopkins University and joined the State Department. He moved over to the White House in 1969 when Kissinger became national security adviser and asked him to serve on the staff of the National Security Council. When Kissinger became secretary of state in 1973, Sonnenfeldt followed him to Foggy Bottom as counselor to the secretary. Known as \u201cKissinger\u2019s Kissinger,\u201d Sonnenfeldt\u2019s work usually took place behind the scenes. Kissinger said that Sonnenfeldt \u201cwas at my right hand on all the negotiations I conducted with the Soviets.\u201d After leaving the State Department, Sonnenfeldt was a visiting scholar at the School of Advanced International Studies at Johns Hopkins and a guest scholar at the Brookings Institution.\n\nJ. Christopher Stevens (b. 1960) was U.S. ambassador to Libya. Born and raised in northern California, Stevens graduated from the University of California, Berkeley. He joined the Peace Corps, teaching English in Morocco for two years. He returned to Berkeley to earn his law degree, and briefly practiced trade law before joining the Foreign Service in 1991. A fluent Arabic speaker, he served in posts in Jerusalem, Damascus, Cairo, and Riyadh, as well in various positions in the State Department that dealt with Middle East issues. Stevens was deputy chief of mission in Libya from 2007 to 2009. When the Libyan civil war broke out, he was named as special representative to the National Transitional Council, a post he held until November 2011. Six months later, he returned to Tripoli as the U.S. ambassador to Libya, making a video introducing himself to the Libyan people. Stevens\u2019s death in the attack on the U.S. consulate in Benghazi marked the first death of an American ambassador in the line of duty in more than three decades.\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/james-m-lindsay\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EJames M. Lindsay\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 26, 2012\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/waters-edge\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            The Water\u0026#039;s Edge\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\n\n\n\t\t  \t  \u003Cli class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n\t    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/defense-and-security\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            Defense and Security\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/world-next-year-2013-edition \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            The World Next Year: 2013 Edition\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2012\/12\/2012-12-21-2013.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003E\u003Cstrong\u003E\u003C\/strong\u003EBob McMahon\u00a0and I typically use our weekly podcast to discuss major foreign policy issues likely to be in the news in the coming week. In honor of the approaching New Year, we decided to change things up and examine the issues likely to dominate world politics in 2013. We discussed a sluggish global economy; the fiscal crisis in the United States; power struggles in the Middle East; the withdrawal of NATO forces from Afghanistan; sovereignty disputes in east Asia; and the battle over Internet freedom. Paul Stares, director of CFR\u2019s Center for Preventive Action (CPA), joined our conversation to talk about CPA\u2019s newly released Preventive Priorities Survey, which assesses the likelihood and consequences of potential conflicts in 2013.\n\n[audio: http:\/\/www.cfr.org\/content\/publications\/media\/editorial\/2012\/20121220_TWNY.mp3]\n\nThe highlights:\n\n\n\n\tGlobal economic growth slowed in 2012, averaging only slightly more than 2 percent. Most economic forecasts predict that global growth is likely to stay sluggish in 2013. Economic troubles aren\u2019t evident just in the mature economies of Europe (which is back in recession) or the United States (which is experiencing an anemic economic recovery). Economic troubles are also evident in many of the emerging economies that only two years ago were crowing because they had avoided the financial crash of 2008-2009. The risk in 2013 is that these economic troubles could be mutually reinforcing, thereby making current economic projections look optimistic in retrospect.\n\n\tOne issue that could strain the struggling global economy is the approaching fiscal cliff in the United States. The White House and the U.S. House of Representatives still have time to cut a deal to avert the cliff. But if they don\u2019t, the result would be to put considerable downward pressure, to borrow the bloodless language of economists, on the U.S. economy, and in turn the global economy. And even if Washington avoids going over the fiscal cliff, it is unlikely to solve its fiscal problems entirely.\n\n\tTurmoil continues to rock the Middle East. Syria will likely dominate the headlines early in 2013 as its civil war intensifies and fears grow that the Assad government will use chemical weapons in a last ditch effort to hold onto power or that jihadists will capture those chemical weapons. Egypt continues to struggle to craft a new political order and to jump start its economy. And Iran is pressing ahead with its nuclear program, raising the prospect that sometime in 2013 it will breach the red lines that the United States and Israel have drawn.\n\n\tTwo things are clear about Afghanistan in 2013. The number of NATO troops will continue to decline, and the Taliban will continue to fight. The Obama administration is discussing how fast the U.S. troop drawdown will proceed, how large the residual force will be at the end of 2014, and what precisely those troops will do. In all, it is hard to be optimistic about Afghanistan\u2019s future.\n\n\tTerritorial disputes in east Asia have the potential to explode in 2013. Profits and patriotism are fueling the tensions. How the lines are drawn in the East China and South China seas will determine who benefits from exploiting potentially vast offshore oil and mineral deposits. Meanwhile, nationalism makes it difficult for Asian leaders, many of whom will be new to the job in 2013, concede claims to regional rivals. U.S. diplomats have the tough task of reassuring America\u2019s allies that the United States stands with them, but doing so in a way that doesn\u2019t encourage them to act recklessly. Moral hazards are never easy.\n\n\tTensions are growing not just in the physical world, but also in the virtual world. Internet users, and especially social media users, have grown accustomed to using the Internet to say what they think. Many authoritarian countries find that freedom threatening and have sought to assert greater control over the Internet and even to use technology to identify and punish their critics.\u003Cstrong\u003E \u003C\/strong\u003EThe United States, Canada, and many European countries take the opposite side in the Internet freedom debate, which is why they rejected a proposed treaty earlier this month governing international communications. That dispute isn\u2019t going away.\n\n\tBob\u2019s Figure of the Year is 37 percent. My Figure of the Year is Mohammed Morsi. As always, you\u2019ll have to listen to the podcast to find out why.\n\n\n\nOf course, December is the time for \u201cbest of\u201d and \u201ctop ten\u201d lists. My CFR colleagues have been busy compiling theirs. Isobel Coleman names five development innovations to watch in 2013. Robert Danin identifies the ten most significant events in the Middle East in 2012. Michael Levi lists the five most influential energy and climate studies of 2012. Adam Segal has five trends to watch for in Chinese cybersecurity in 2013.\n\nOutside of CFR, \u003Cem\u003ETime\u003C\/em\u003E has the top ten everything of 2012. Yahoo picks the top news stories of 2012.\u00a0Booz Allen identifies what it sees as the top ten cyber security trends for financial services. The Institute for Human Rights and Business has its top ten business and human rights issues. The \u003Cem\u003ENew York Times Book Review\u003C\/em\u003E names the top ten books of 2012. \u003Cem\u003ESlate\u003C\/em\u003E has the best movies of 2012 and the \u003Cem\u003EAtlantic\u003C\/em\u003E lists 2012\u2019s greatest moments in sports. Lonely Planet has its top ten travel destinations for 2013, only two of which I have visited. I need to get out more.\n\nBob and I are taking a break next week from podcast duties. We will be back in January. In the meantime, we wish you and yours a safe and happy holidays.\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/james-m-lindsay\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EJames M. Lindsay\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 21, 2012\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/waters-edge\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            The Water\u0026#039;s Edge\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t  \t  \u003Cli class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n\t    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/defense-and-security\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            Defense and Security\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/why-it-so-hard-cut-federal-spending \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Why Is It So Hard to Cut Federal Spending?\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2012\/12\/2012-12-21-Spending.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EThe \u003Cem\u003ENew York Times \u003C\/em\u003Epublished a chart today that succinctly explains why it is so hard to cut the federal government\u2019s spending: the programs that people want to cut don\u2019t cost very much, and the programs that cost a lot people don\u2019t want to cut.\n\n\n\nAs Annie Lowrey points out in the story that accompanies the chart, if foreign aid were eliminated entirely ($22 billion) and all federal civilian workers took a 10 percent pay cut ($19 billion), the savings would be less than $50 billion. That is compared to an annual federal deficit that has topped $1 \u003Cem\u003Etrillion\u003C\/em\u003E in recent years.\n\nAs the chart shows, there is one big expense that the public is willing to cut\u2014defense. \u00a0That is why the Defense Department, despite its many friends on Capitol Hill, is facing lean times and tough choices ahead.\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/james-m-lindsay\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EJames M. Lindsay\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 21, 2012\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/waters-edge\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            The Water\u0026#039;s Edge\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n    \n\u003Cul class=\u0022js-pager__items pager\u0022 data-drupal-views-infinite-scroll-pager\u003E\n  \u003Cli class=\u0022pager__item\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Ca class=\u0022button\u0022 href=\u0022?page=1\u0022 title=\u0022Load more items\u0022 rel=\u0022next\u0022\u003ELoad More\u003C\/a\u003E\n  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\u003C\/ul\u003E\n\n\n  \n  \n\n  \n  \n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n","settings":null}]