[{"command":"settings","settings":{"pluralDelimiter":"\u0003","suppressDeprecationErrors":true,"ajaxPageState":{"libraries":"eJwry0wtL9YvA5F6ufkppTmpOmBOfGJWYkV8emqJPowBFc_MS8vMyyxJjS9OLsrPyYFo1YWJ6kJEAdF1Ikc","theme":"cfr_theme","theme_token":null},"ajaxTrustedUrl":[],"views":{"ajax_path":"\/views\/ajax","ajaxViews":{"views_dom_id:31044279f6c62ac60e2f6265c4c35e9936372a8c04d4ee5ff9580772b9ac29b3":{"view_name":"blog_posts","view_display_id":"block_archived_blog_posts","view_args":"7\/252728\/2017","view_path":"\/custom\/ajax\/archived_blog_posts\/7\/252728\/2017","view_base_path":null,"view_dom_id":"31044279f6c62ac60e2f6265c4c35e9936372a8c04d4ee5ff9580772b9ac29b3","pager_element":0}}},"viewsAjaxGet":{"blog_posts":"blog_posts"},"user":{"uid":0,"permissionsHash":"e331052eb0a1bc4b2feb3d0cfc1f0f2f6ec5dfd9a50125d1397e4ccee31da7be"}},"merge":true},{"command":"add_css","data":[{"rel":"stylesheet","media":"all","href":"\/sites\/default\/files\/css\/css_sgviVl_37H6Ta5Bl-lc7uAkjneU0Dj6JvASOxbgV9L8.css?delta=0\u0026language=en\u0026theme=cfr_theme\u0026include=eJwry0wtL9YvA5F6ufkppTmpOmBOfGJWYkV8emqJPowBFc_MS8vMyyxJjS9OLsrPyYFo1YWJ6kJEAdF1Ikc"}]},{"command":"add_js","selector":"body","data":[{"src":"\/themes\/custom\/cfr_theme\/node_modules\/jquery\/dist\/jquery.min.js?v=3.1.0"},{"src":"\/themes\/custom\/cfr_theme\/node_modules\/jquery-migrate\/dist\/jquery-migrate.min.js?v=3.1.0"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/once\/once.min.js?v=1.0.1"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupalSettingsLoader.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupal.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/drupal.init.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/tabbable\/index.umd.min.js?v=6.2.0"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/progress.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/loadjs\/loadjs.min.js?v=4.2.0"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/debounce.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/announce.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/message.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/misc\/ajax.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/themes\/contrib\/stable\/js\/ajax.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/modules\/contrib\/views_ajax_get\/views_ajax_get.js?tcwifo"},{"src":"\/core\/assets\/vendor\/jquery-form\/jquery.form.min.js?v=4.3.0"},{"src":"\/core\/modules\/views\/js\/base.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/core\/modules\/views\/js\/ajax_view.js?v=10.2.11"},{"src":"\/modules\/contrib\/views_infinite_scroll\/js\/infinite-scroll.js?v=10.2.11"}]},{"command":"insert","method":"html","selector":".blog-series__accordion-item[data-year=\u00222017\u0022] .blog-series__accordion-body","data":"\u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-element-container\u0022\u003E\u003Cdiv class=\u0022js-view-dom-id-31044279f6c62ac60e2f6265c4c35e9936372a8c04d4ee5ff9580772b9ac29b3\u0022\u003E\n  \n  \n  \n\n  \n  \n  \n\n  \u003Cdiv data-drupal-views-infinite-scroll-content-wrapper class=\u0022views-infinite-scroll-content-wrapper clearfix\u0022\u003E\n\n\n\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/americas\/united-states\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            United States\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/ten-world-figures-who-died-2017 \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Ten World Figures Who Died in 2017 \n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2017\/12\/Kohl.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003ETen people who passed away this year who shaped world affairs for better or worse.\r\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/james-m-lindsay\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EJames M. Lindsay\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 28, 2017\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/waters-edge\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            The Water\u0026#039;s Edge\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/americas\/united-states\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            United States\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/ten-american-foreign-policy-influentials-who-died-2017 \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Ten American Foreign Policy Influentials Who Died in 2017\n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2017\/12\/ForeignPolicyInfluencials.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EAs 2017 comes to a close, here are ten influential U.S. foreign policy figures who passed away this year.\u0026nbsp;\r\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/james-m-lindsay\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EJames M. Lindsay\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 27, 2017\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/waters-edge\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            The Water\u0026#039;s Edge\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/global-commons\/global\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            Global\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/seven-foreign-policy-stories-watch-2018 \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Seven Foreign Policy Stories to Watch in 2018 \n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2017\/12\/SevenStories2018.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003ETwo thousand seventeen had its fair share of big news stories. The same will be true of 2018. Some of those stories undoubtedly will be a surprise. Not many experts were warning a year ago of impending ethnic cleansing of the Rohingya in Myanmar. Yet it (sadly) became one of the biggest news stories of 2017. Maybe a year from now everyone will be talking about Egypt\u2019s insurgency and a new financial crisis in the European Union (EU). Or maybe not. As Yogi Berra apparently didn\u2019t say, \u201cIt\u2019s hard to make predictions, especially about the future.\u201d But a fair number of significant world events are ones we know are coming\u2014call them the \u201cknown knowns.\u201d Here are seven known stories to follow closely in 2018. Any one of them could turn into the dominant news event of the year\u2014or fade completely away. We\u2019ll know in twelve months which will sizzle and which will fizzle.\r\n\r\n\u003Cb\u003EIran\u2019s Bid for Regional Hegemony. \u003C\/b\u003EIranian leaders must be pleased with how 2017 played out. Syrian President Bashar al-Assad looks to be securely in power in Damascus. Ditto Hezbollah in Lebanon. The Islamic State lost much of its territory. The Iraqi government retook the oil-rich city of Kirkuk. Houthi rebels have Saudi Arabia bogged down in a quagmire in Yemen. Iranian involvement figured prominently in all of these developments, which has entrenched Iranian influence across the region. But this success is not Tehran\u2019s doing alone. Saudi Arabia\u2019s foreign policy missteps have helped as well. Besides its ill-considered Yemen adventure, Riyadh led the effort to embargo Qatar for its alleged pro-Iranian sympathies and support for terrorism. That has pushed Qatar closer to Tehran and created a diplomatic headache for Washington. (Qatar hosts the largest U.S. airbase in the Middle East.) Still, Saudi Arabia likely retains President Donald Trump\u2019s ear. The new U.S. National Security Strategy vows to \u201cneutralize Iranian malign influence.\u201d Contrary to his campaign pledge, Trump hasn\u2019t pulled the United States out of the Joint Comprehensive Plan of Action (JCPOA). He instead opted to refuse to certify Iran\u2019s compliance. That effectively kicked the issue over to Capitol Hill. Congress has now effectively kicked it back to him. While the White House wants to turn up the heat on Tehran, the question remains how far it will be willing to go. After all, Europe opposes torpedoing the JCPOA, and the White House has its hands full with North Korea. One thing you can be sure of: Iran will press its advantage wherever it can.\r\n\r\n\u003Cb\u003ENorth Korea\u2019s Nuclear Ambitions. \u003C\/b\u003ESomething has to give. Trump has vowed to prevent North Korea from gaining the capability to hit the United States with nuclear-armed ballistic missiles. He\u2019s backed that up with angry tweets and threats to unleash \u201cfire and fury.\u201d So far North Korea isn\u2019t blinking. Pyongyang boasted after its ballistic missile test last month that it \u201ccan now reach all of the mainland U.S.\u201d That\u2019s probably not true. However, the trend is not America\u2019s friend. Unfortunately, Washington\u2019s options for compelling Pyongyang to back down aren\u2019t promising. China either can\u2019t\u2014or won\u2019t\u2014use its economic leverage to make North Korea cry uncle. Meanwhile, the cost of U.S. military action would likely be steep\u2014possibly even \u201ccatastrophic.\u201d A diplomatic solution might still be forged. But that would almost certainly require recognizing North Korea as a nuclear weapons power\u2014at the risk that Pyongyang will pocket any concessions and then renege on its commitments. It has done that before. Yes, the United States can rely on deterrence to keep North Korea at bay. That strategy worked against the far larger Soviet threat. The danger is that Kim Jong-un may be willing to take risks that Soviet leaders weren\u2019t. Of course, an assassination, coup, or popular uprising could scramble everything\u2014and not necessarily in a good way. However the situation plays out, the current level of tensions creates the possibility that war will begin not through calculation but miscalculation.\r\n\r\n\u003Cb\u003ECrisis in Venezuela\u003C\/b\u003E. Venezuela should be a prosperous and vibrant country. After all, it has the largest proven oil reserves in the world. Instead, the country is gripped by a horrific economic and political crisis. The fault lies squarely with President Nicol\u00e1s Maduro. He has implemented disastrous economic policies and run roughshod over the country\u2019s constitution. Hungry Venezuelans bitterly joke about being on a \u201cMaduro diet,\u201d medicine is in short supply, and Maduro\u2019s allies have frustrated efforts to change things at the ballot box. As bad as things were in 2017 for Venezuelans, things could be even worse in 2018. The International Monetary Fund projects that inflation will exceed 2,300 percent next year. And Maduro has banned three opposition parties from participating in next December\u2019s presidential election. Venezuelans have taken to the streets to protest Maduro\u2019s dictatorial ways. More than one hundred protestors have been killed, but nothing has changed. As a result, hundreds of thousands of Venezuelans have fled to neighboring countries. Latin American countries are divided over how to respond. The United States has already imposed sanctions on Venezuelan officials and may impose more. Trump\u2019s suggestion that U.S. military intervention might be necessary drew rebukes from across Latin America and probably gave Maduro a much-needed propaganda victory. In all, Maduro isn\u2019t likely to go unless Venezuelans make him go.\r\n\r\n\u003Cb\u003ETrump\u2019s Effort to Transform Trade. \u003C\/b\u003EPresident Trump has been complaining about America\u2019s \u201chorrible\u201d trade deals since the mid-1980s, and he made it a central theme of his 2016 presidential campaign. But during his first eleven months in office he spent more time barking than biting on trade. True, he signed a presidential memorandum pulling the United States out of the Trans Pacific Partnership (TPP). However, he didn\u2019t impose tariffs on China or withdraw from the North American Free Trade Agreement (NAFTA), the Korea-U.S. Free Trade Agreement, or the World Trade Organization (WTO), all steps he either implied or vowed on the campaign trail to take. That may soon change. The White House is moving to impose punitive actions on predatory Chinese trade practices, its demands for revamping NAFTA look to be unacceptable to Canada and Mexico, and it is waging a low-level war against the WTO. Trump\u2019s push to counter what he calls \u201ceconomic aggression\u201d could create considerable turmoil abroad\u2014and at home. America\u2019s trading partners are likely to retaliate. No one knows how far such tit-for-tat actions might go. What is known is that some U.S. export sectors would be hurt. Meanwhile, Trump\u2019s trade initiatives won\u2019t fix what bothers him: America\u2019s yawning trade deficit. The United States runs a deficit because Americans consume far more than they save. Tweaking trade deals won\u2019t change that. To make matters worse, the tax bill he has championed will likely make the trade deficit larger.\r\n\r\n\u003Cb\u003EChina\u2019s Ambitions Abroad. \u003C\/b\u003EXi Jinping had a terrific 2017. He consolidated his hold on power and now ranks as China\u2019s most powerful leader since Mao Zedong. The question is, how will he use his new status? To judge by his 205-minute speech to China\u2019s National Party Congress in October, he won\u2019t be sitting on the sidelines; he will be flexing his muscles. He used the terms \u201cgreat power\u201d and \u201cstrong power\u201d twenty-six times in his speech. Xi\u2019s assertive foreign policy will likely mix soft and hard power. He will be offering substantial aid to countries throughout Asia under the banner of the One Belt One Road initiative. Most countries will find it hard to pass up these funds, even if they sometimes come with substantial strings attached. Beijing will also be supporting sympathetic politicians and groups overseas, a tactic that has started to trigger a backlash. The vinegar supplementing the honey will be China\u2019s continued effort to turn the South China Sea into a Chinese lake. Countries in Southeast Asia will be watching closely to see whether, and how, the United States pushes back on China\u2019s effort to make itself the regional hegemon. A world order may hang in the balance.\r\n\r\n\u003Cb\u003EThe Mueller Investigation. \u003C\/b\u003EAmericans aren\u2019t the only ones watching to see what happens with the investigation Special Counsel Robert Mueller is conducting. Foreign capitals are as well. President Trump has called the investigation a \u201cwitch hunt,\u201d and he dismisses allegations that his campaign colluded with Russia as \u201cfake news.\u201d Partisans on both sides think they know how the investigation will turn out. We\u2019ll see who is right. What we know for sure is that Trump\u2019s former National Security Advisor Michael Flynn has pled guilty to lying to the FBI, as has former Trump campaign advisor George Papadopoulos. Mueller also has indicted Trump\u2019s former campaign manager, Paul Manafort and Manafort\u2019s business partner and senior Trump campaign staffer, Rick Gates. Trump\u2019s lawyers predict that the investigation will wrap up shortly; history suggests it could drag on for months. At a minimum, the investigation distracts White House attention from policymaking and raises doubts overseas as to whether Trump has the political capital to carry through on his threats and promises. At the maximum, the investigation could plunge the United States into an unprecedented constitutional crisis. Whether we get either extreme or an outcome somewhere in between, America\u2019s democracy is being tested. We\u2019ll see if we live up to the framers\u2019 expectations.\r\n\r\n\u003Cb\u003EDemocracy Under Stress\u003C\/b\u003E. Democracy is under siege. Just examine the rankings that Freedom House generates\u2014global freedom has been declining for over a decade. The problem isn\u2019t just that emerging democracies like Thailand and Turkey have slid back into authoritarian rule, though that\u2019s bad enough. Many Western democracies are struggling as well. The EU is threatening to strip Poland\u2019s voting rights in EU institutions because Warsaw has adopted anti-democratic laws, while Spain faces a secessionist movement in Catalonia. Centrist political parties across Europe have been losing vote shares to parties on the two extremes. Traditional center-left parties have had the most trouble, having suffered humiliating defeats in the Netherlands, France, and Austria among other places. But center-right parties are struggling as well, as recent elections in Britain and Germany attest. The United States still has a robust two-party system, but its democracy also seems far from its glory days. Congress struggles to carry out is most basic function, funding the government, Trump regularly violates longstanding democratic norms, and many Americans view members of the opposite party unfavorably. It\u2019s not surprising, then, that some now see the United States as a \u201cflawed democracy.\u201d Authoritarian governments like China and Russia are both working, in different ways, to undermine free and fair elections across the globe. Is democracy doomed? No. It remains popular worldwide, even if it has become less so among young people in democratic countries. There will be important elections in 2018 that could reverse the negative trends, though they might also give us more \u201cilliberal democracies.\u201d Here\u2019s the thing about democracy: it empowers the people. It\u2019s up to them to use that power wisely.\r\n\r\n\u003Cem\u003ECorey Cooper and Benjamin Shaver contributed to the preparation of this post.\u003C\/em\u003E\r\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/james-m-lindsay\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EJames M. Lindsay\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 22, 2017\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/waters-edge\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            The Water\u0026#039;s Edge\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\n\n\n\t\t  \t  \u003Cli class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n\t    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/americas\/united-states\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            United States\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/iran-deal-saga-continues \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            The Iran Deal Saga Continues \n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2017\/12\/RTS1GDEM_0.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003E\u003Cem\u003EAn important legislative deadline passed last week in Washington without much mention. You might remember that back on October 13, \u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003EPresident Donald Trump\u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003E announced \u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003Ehe would not certify\u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003E that Iran was complying with the \u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003EJoint Comprehensive Plan of Action\u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003E, or the Iran nuclear deal as it is more commonly known. Trump\u2019s decision triggered a provision of the 2015 \u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003EIran Nuclear Agreement Review Act\u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003E (INARA) giving congressional leaders sixty days to submit legislation to re-impose sanctions on Iran or even torpedo the agreement. Legislation submitted during the sixty-day window would receive \u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003Eexpedited consideration\u003C\/em\u003E\u003Cem\u003E. That window closed last Wednesday. Benjamin Shaver, who interned for me this semester, discusses the consequences of the passing of the deadline. \u003C\/em\u003E\r\n\r\nINARA recognized that a president might determine that Iran was not complying with the nuclear deal. If that happened, the act stipulated that the majority and minority leaders in the House or the Senate would have sixty days to introduce legislation to reintroduce U.S. sanctions on Iran. Under the terms of INARA, any motion that congressional leaders introduced would be given expedited consideration, meaning that the typical legislative maneuvers used to delay or block legislation could not be used. Just as important, no other members of Congress could submit legislation on Iranian sanctions during the sixty-day window.\r\n\r\nINARA\u2019s sixty-day window closed at midnight last Wednesday, December 13, without leaders on either side of the aisle submitting legislation. It\u2019s not surprising that Democratic leaders stood pat. They say the deal is working. It\u2019s more surprising that neither House nor Senate Republican leaders introduced a bill to punish Iran for what Trump said was Tehran\u2019s noncompliance. After all, they had been critical of the deal since it was unveiled, and Trump leads their party. Of course, Republican leaders have been busy trying to pass a tax reform bill.\r\n\r\nNow that the sixty-day window has closed, any member of Congress can submit a bill to re-impose sanctions on Iran. Two senators who just might do that are Bob Corker (R-TN) and Tom Cotton (R-AR). On the same day that Trump declined to certify, Corker and Cotton announced a plan to fix what they saw as the Iran deal\u2019s flaws. Their plan hasn\u2019t gone anywhere over the last two months, at least not publicly; it remains just a fact sheet on Corker\u2019s website.\r\n\r\nHere\u2019s the rub. Even if Corker and Cotton do submit a bill based on their plan, it won\u2019t receive expedited consideration. It would face the same obstacles that any bill faces once it is submitted, including a Senate filibuster. Corker and Cotton would need to round up sixty votes in the Senate to stop inevitable Democratic efforts to derail the legislation. With Republicans holding just fifty-two seats\u2014fifty-one once Doug Jones of Alabama is sworn in\u2014sixty will be a tough number to reach. It won\u2019t help that some Republican senators were skeptical, at least initially, of the Corker-Cotton approach. They worry that it would antagonize European allies and that it would be wiser to try and pass legislation that would impose sanctions on Iran for its ballistic missile program and support for terrorism.\r\n\r\nWhat does all this mean? Congress isn\u2019t likely to pass new Iran-related legislation any time soon, if ever. So the ball is now back in Trump\u2019s court. If he wants to re-impose sanctions on Iran, he will have to do it himself. The good news for the White House is that the president has the power to do just that. All he has to do is stop signing executive orders waiving the sanctions that were suspended once the Iran nuclear deal went into effect. He has waived them twice so far in his presidency, most recently in September. The sanctions can be waived for up to 120 days, which means Trump will have to decide whether to waive them again before January 12. Mark that date on your calendar. It\u2019s going to be important.\r\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby Guest Blogger for James M. Lindsay\u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 20, 2017\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/waters-edge\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            The Water\u0026#039;s Edge\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\t  \t  \u003Cli class=\u0022views-row\u0022\u003E\n\t    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022views-field views-field-search-api-rendered-item\u0022\u003E\u003Cspan class=\u0022field-content\u0022\u003E\n\n  \n\n\u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large article card-article-large--with-thumbnail\u0022\u003E\n  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__container\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__content\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag\u0022\u003E\n          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/americas\/united-states\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__topic-tag-link\u0022\u003E\n            United States\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n        \u003C\/div\u003E\n            \n                  \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/ten-most-significant-world-events-2017 \u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__link\u0022\u003E\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__title\u0022\u003E\n            Ten Most Significant World Events in 2017 \n                    \u003C\/div\u003E\n                  \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image\u0022\u003E\n            \n                          \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__image-cover\u0022 style=\u0022background-image: url(\/\/cdn.cfr.org\/sites\/default\/files\/styles\/card_landscape_m_380x253\/public\/image\/2017\/12\/RTSWIFB_0.jpg.webp)\u0022\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n                      \u003C\/div\u003E\n              \u003C\/a\u003E\n\n              \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__dek clamp-js\u0022 data-clamp-lines=\u00224\u0022\u003EAs 2017 comes to a close, here are the top ten most notable world events of the past year.\r\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n      \n      \u003Cdiv class=\u0022card-article-large__metadata\u0022\u003E\n                              \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__authors\u0022\u003Eby                   \u003Ca href=\u0022\/expert\/james-m-lindsay\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__authors-link\u0022\u003EJames M. Lindsay\u003C\/a\u003E\n                \u003C\/span\u003E\n                  \n        \n                  \u003Cspan class=\u0022card-article-large__date\u0022\u003E December 15, 2017\u003C\/span\u003E\n        \n        \n                          \u003Ca href=\u0022\/blog\/waters-edge\u0022 class=\u0022card-article-large__series\u0022\u003E\n            The Water\u0026#039;s Edge\n          \u003C\/a\u003E\n              \u003C\/div\u003E\n    \u003C\/div\u003E\n  \u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n\u003C\/span\u003E\u003C\/div\u003E\n\t  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\t\u003C\/div\u003E\n\n    \n\u003Cul class=\u0022js-pager__items pager\u0022 data-drupal-views-infinite-scroll-pager\u003E\n  \u003Cli class=\u0022pager__item\u0022\u003E\n    \u003Ca class=\u0022button\u0022 href=\u0022?page=1\u0022 title=\u0022Load more items\u0022 rel=\u0022next\u0022\u003ELoad More\u003C\/a\u003E\n  \u003C\/li\u003E\n\u003C\/ul\u003E\n\n\n  \n  \n\n  \n  \n\u003C\/div\u003E\n\u003C\/div\u003E\n","settings":null}]