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About the Expert
Expert Bio
Paul B. Stares is the General John W. Vessey senior fellow for conflict prevention and director of the Center for Preventive Action at the Council on Foreign Relations (CFR). An expert on conflict prevention and a regular commentator on current affairs, he is the author or editor of nine books on U.S. security policy and international relations. His latest book, Preventive Engagement: How America Can Avoid War, Stay Strong, and Keep the Peace (Columbia University Press, 2017), provides a comprehensive blueprint for how the United States can manage a more turbulent and dangerous world.
Prior to joining CFR, Stares was vice president and director of the Center for Conflict Analysis and Prevention at the United States Institute of Peace. He worked as associate director and senior research scholar at Stanford University's Center for International Security and Cooperation from 2000 to 2002 and was senior research fellow at the Japan Institute of International Affairs and then director of studies at the Japan Center for International Exchange from 1996 to 2000. From 1984 to 1996, he was a research associate and later senior fellow in the foreign policy studies program at the Brookings Institution. He has also been a NATO fellow and a scholar in residence at the MacArthur Foundation's Moscow office.
Stares has participated in various high-level studies, including the Genocide Prevention Task Force co-chaired by Madeleine Albright and William Cohen, the expert working group on the strategic environment for the Iraq Study Group co-chaired by James Baker and Lee Hamilton, and the Task Force on Extremism in Fragile States co-chaired by Thomas Kean and Lee Hamilton. In addition to his most recent book, Preventive Engagement, he has authored or edited numerous books as well as several CFR publications, notably Partners in Preventive Action (Council Special Report No. 62), Managing Instability on China's Periphery (Asia Security Memorandum), "Enhancing U.S. Crisis Preparedness" (Policy Innovation Memorandum No. 4), "Military Escalation in Korea" (Contingency Planning Memorandum No. 10), Enhancing U.S. Preventive Action (Council Special Report No. 48), and Preparing for Sudden Change in North Korea (Council Special Report No. 42).
Stares has a BA from North Staffordshire Polytechnic and received both his MA and PhD from Lancaster University.
Affiliations:
None
Featured
Stares proposes a comprehensive new strategy for how the United States can manage an increasingly turbulent world and reduce the risk of costly military commitments.
In CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey, U.S. foreign policy experts assess the likelihood and impact of thirty potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate in the coming year.
Although the world seems destined to grow more competitive, congested, and contested in the coming years, the logic of major power cooperation remains inescapable. Any effort to shape a new international order that is stable, inclusive, and beneficial to all must be a collaborative undertaking.
In CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey, U.S. foreign policy experts assess the likelihood and impact of thirty potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate in the coming year.
In CFR’s annual Preventive Priorities Survey, U.S. foreign policy experts assess the likelihood and impact of thirty potential conflicts that could emerge or escalate in the coming year.
U.S. foreign policy experts assess the likelihood and impact of thirty potential crises or conflicts around the world in the coming year in CFR’s annual survey.
U.S. foreign policy experts assess the likelihood and impact of thirty potential crises or conflicts around the world in the coming year in CFR's annual survey.
Current Projects
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Our panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2022, as well as their global political implications. This event explores the results of the 2022 Preventive Priorities Survey.
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Although major power competition on the African continent is a reality, it should not dominate the Biden administration’s vision for U.S.-Africa relations, argues Michelle Gavin in her new paper Major Power Rivalry in Africa, for the Managing Global Disorder Discussion Paper series. Speakers discuss how the Biden administration can pursue strategic partnerships that align African aspirations and U.S. interests while managing competition with China.
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Even as the United States debates its role in the Middle East, it still retains significant power and influence in the region. With intensifying great power competition, however, regional dynamics and the prospects for preventing, containing, and mitigating conflicts are shifting. Panelists discuss these topics and possible avenues for cooperation among the major powers. Additional Resources For further reading, please see the CFR discussion paper, "Major Power Rivalry in the Middle East" by Steven A. Cook.
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Panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2021, as well as their global political implications. This event explored the results of CFR's 2021 Preventive Priorities Survey.
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Please join Paul Stares for a discussion of how the United States prepares for potential foreign policy crises, including how the U.S. has historically tried to avoid being blindsided by threatening developments and what it should do to be better prepared in the future. The CFR Master Class Series is a biweekly 45-minute session hosted by Vice President and Deputy Director for Studies Shannon O’Neil in which a CFR fellow will take a step back from the news and discuss the fundamentals essential to understanding a given country, region of the world, or issue pertaining to U.S. foreign policy or international relations.
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In late September 2020, fighting broke out between Armenia and Azerbaijan over the disputed enclave of Nagorno-Karabakh. Although Russia has since brokered a cease-fire, the situation remains very tense and volatile. There are numerous ways the crisis could escalate and become an even larger threat to regional peace and security. Please join our speakers, Ambassador (Ret.) Carey Cavanaugh, professor at the University of Kentucky Patterson School of Diplomacy and International Commerce, and Olesya Vartanyan, senior analyst for the South Caucasus region at the International Crisis Group, to discuss why this conflict matters for the United States and what policy options are available to defuse the crisis. This meeting is made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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Since May 2020, an ongoing military standoff between Chinese and Indian troops at various points along the two countries’ disputed border has exposed fracture lines in the China-India relationship and heightened the potential for further military escalation. Even with recent statements around disengaging troops, the standoff proved that rivalry between the two powers could affect the prospects for escalation at the border and elsewhere in the region. Please join our speakers, Tanvi Madan, director of the India Project and senior fellow in foreign policy at the Brookings Institution, and Yun Sun, director of the China program and codirector of the East Asia program at the Henry L. Stimson Center, to discuss these risks and U.S. policy options. This meeting is made possible by the generous support of the Carnegie Corporation of New York.
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More than four months after the United States and the Taliban signed an agreement to start a peace process, meaningful steps toward an intra-Afghan peace deal have yet to take place. With multiple hurdles to successful talks, including questions about the Taliban’s interest in a deal and about the future makeup of the Afghan state, there remains a real risk of the peace process stalling or collapsing entirely. Our speakers, Seth G. Jones, Center for Strategic and International Studies, and Laurel Miller, International Crisis Group, discuss a recent Contingency Planning Memorandum on the possibility of a failed Afghan peace deal and what U.S. policymakers can do to prevent it.
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In this video of the Council on Foreign Relations’ Center for Preventive Action Roundtable Series on Managing Global Disorder, Qingguo Jia, Peking University, and Dhruva Jaishankar, Observer Research Foundation, discuss what the post-pandemic world may look like.
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The COVID-19 pandemic has already sparked considerable debate over how the present international order could change as a consequence. Some commentators see the world growing more fragmented and disorderly while others believe this moment will give new impetus to international cooperation on a variety of global challenges. Speakers Andrey Kortunov, Russian International Affairs Council, and Nathalie Tocci, Istituto di Affari Internazionali, discuss what the post-pandemic world may look like. For further reading, please see the CFR discussion paper, "Perspectives on a Changing World Order," by Dhruva Jaishankar, Qingguo Jia, Andrey Kortunov, Paul Stares, and Nathalie Tocci.
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As tensions rise between the United States and China, the risk of a military confrontation in the South China Sea between China and the United States is growing. Domestic politics in China, fallout from the ongoing U.S.-China trade war, and accusations over the spread of the novel coronavirus are adding to this risk. Please join our speakers, Oriana Skylar Mastro from Georgetown University and the American Enterprise Institute, and Abraham Denmark from the Wilson Center, to discuss a recent Contingency Planning Memorandum on the possibility of a U.S.-China military confrontation in the South China Sea and what U.S. policymakers can do to prevent it. This meeting is made possible by the generous support of the Rockefeller Brothers Fund.
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Panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2020, as well as their global political implications. This event explores the results of the 2020 Preventive Priorities Survey, which is available on cfr.org/report/conflicts-watch-2020.
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Panelists discuss potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2019, as well as their global political implications, and explore the results of the 2019 Preventive Priorities Survey, conducted by CFR’s Center for Preventive Action.
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Panelists discuss the potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2018, as well as their global political implications.
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Paul Stares discusses his new book, Preventive Engagement: How America Can Avoid War, Stay Strong, and Keep the Peace. Stares proposes a comprehensive new strategy for how the United States can manage an increasingly turbulent world and reduce the risk of costly military commitments.
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Experts discuss the global political implications of potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2017.
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Priscilla A. Clapp, former U.S. chief of mission to Myanmar (1999-2002), and Derek J. Mitchell, former U.S. ambassador to Myanmar (2012-2016), discussed the country's new government and the challenges it faces in securing the transition to democracy. The speakers reflected on recent changes in Myanmar since the November 2015 election.
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Three leading conflict experts discussed potential and ongoing crises that may erupt or escalate in 2016, as well as their global political and economic implications.