
Destabilization of Mali
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Sub-Saharan Africa
Limited
Worsening
Transnational Terrorism
Recent Developments
In August 2020, military officers in Mali carried out a bloodless coup that led to the resignation and removal of Malian President Ibraham Boubacar Keita and Malian Prime Minister Boubou Cisse. The United States and France immediately condemned the coup, as did the UN Security Council, the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS), and the African Union (AU). ECOWAS issued sanctions against the coup leaders, suspended travel rights, and demanded the release of Keita and other arrested officials. The AU’s Security Council called for the “restoration of constitutional order and the release of the president and other government officials.” Following reports that military officers involved in the coup had previously received training from the U.S. military, the United States also halted all training and support exercises with Mali.
The coup followed months of protests against Keita’s administration, which escalated in July 2020 when a clash with security forces resulted in several fatalities. The protests, referred to as the June 5 Movement, focused on highlighting corruption and the government’s failure to curb insecurity across Mali. In the wake of the coup, the June 5 Movement remained a party to negotiations as ECOWAS, along with other regional organizations, pressed for the militia junta—calling itself the National Committee for the Salvation of the People—to form a transitional government predicated on civilian rule. On September 27, Mali’s former Defense Minister Bah N’Daw was named the new president of the transitional council, while the head of the military junta that took power, Assimi Goita, was named vice president of the council. N’Daw then appointed Mali’s former Minister of Foreign Affairs Moctar Ouane—a civilian—as prime minister. The three heads of state will oversee an eighteen-month transitional period before elections are held. After the transitional government was appointed, Cisse and other officials detained during the coup were released; ECOWAS thereafter lifted economic sanctions and the AU lifted its suspension of Mali.
Despite the presence of various counterterrorism forces and internationally supported military operations, violent attacks and reprisals have increased and major terrorist networks and other militant groups appear to be gaining power in Mali. In January 2020, a terrorist group linked to al-Qaeda, the Group for Support of Islam and Muslims (JNIM), attacked a military outpost and killed dozens of Malian soldiers. Several attacks and reprisals perpetrated by loosely formed militias along ethnic lines indicate that violence at the community level may also be rising. In February 2020, an ethnic militia killed at least thirty people in Ogassagou.
In June 2020, the mandate for the UN peacekeeping mission in Mali (MINUSMA) was renewed and approved to maintain more than fifteen thousand personnel in Mali and support implementation of the Agreement on Peace and Reconciliation in Mali (2015), among other priority tasks. France also maintains more than five thousand personnel in the country under Operation Barkhane and, in September 2020, it was announced that a new task force comprised of other European military forces would also deploy to Mali under Operation Barkhane.
Background
After gaining independence from France in 1960, Mali endured decades of instability. While the majority of the population resides in the south, Tuareg and Arab groups in the sparsely populated north rebelled against the government in 1963, 1990, and 2006, attempting to gain autonomy for the region they named Azawad. Numerous groups, including Islamist militant groups, have taken advantage of the government’s inability to assert control over territory in the north by continuously asserting territorial claims and attacking Malian government and international security forces, undermining the government and threatening to destabilize neighboring countries.
The current crisis in Mali began in early 2012 when a Tuareg separatist group, the National Movement for the Liberation of Azawad (MNLA), in the north rebelled for a fourth time. The MNLA was backed by a collection of Islamist militant groups—Ansar Dine, al-Qaeda in the Islamic Maghreb (AQIM), and the Movement for Unity and Jihad in West Africa—and together the groups moved to take over territory in the north. In March 2012, then-President Amadou Toumani Toure was deposed in a military coup carried out by the Malian army as anger spread over the government’s response to the rebellion. Confusion and infighting created by the power vacuum in the capital of Bamako enabled the MNLA and Islamist groups to seize territory quickly. By April 2012, the groups controlled nearly all of the territory in the north and declared independence.
The alliance between the MNLA and the Islamist groups was short-lived; in June 2012 the MNLA broke with Ansar Dine and AQIM over the Islamists push to impose Sharia law in the north. Islamists gained control over Timbuktu and Gao, destroying shrines and imposing a harsh interpretation of Islamic rule. As Islamist groups began pushing toward the center of the country, the French military intervened in January 2013 at the request of the Malian government, deploying ground troops and launching an air campaign to push back the militants. Through Operation Barkhane, France continues to lead the fight in Mali and three thousand troops have been deployed since July 2014 to protect civilians and aid the efforts of local militaries. The UN Multidimensional Integrated Stabilization Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) was also created to combat extremism in the region in April 2013. More than thirteen thousand UN peacekeepers remain deployed in Mali and MINUSMA has been called the UN’s most dangerous mission due to the high number of attacks on peacekeepers.
Despite increased international involvement, the campaign against militants has instead resulted in the spread of militancy to countries across the Sahel. In February 2017, France and the Group of Five for the Sahel (G5) countries—Burkina Faso, Chad, Mali, Mauritania, and Niger—announced the creation of the G5 Sahel Force, a five thousand-troop-strong counterterrorism force aimed at fighting militant groups with an expanded mandate to move across borders in the Sahel region; the multinational force began operations in October 2017. The U.S. military has also increased its presence in the Sahel, deploying approximately 1,500 troops to the region and building a drone base in Niger to serve as a platform for strikes against groups across West and North Africa.
Concerns
The continued strengthening of militant groups in Mali and their spread to neighboring countries could allow al-Qaeda and the Islamic State to establish a new safe haven and destabilize the region through militancy and terrorism. In addition, northern Mali remains a central transit point for young migrants from all over western Africa looking to travel to Algeria or Libya with the ultimate goal of reaching Europe. The weak economy and lack of job prospects in northern Mali has led many to turn to the trafficking and smuggling of migrants and drugs as a primary source of income. This crisis is both a humanitarian and security concern as militant groups in the Sahel region often tax trafficking and smuggling routes to fund their campaigns.
Alerts
A Visual Exploration of the Conflict
Destabilization of Mali

Destabilization of Mali





Background Articles
Africa Center for Strategic Studies September 25, 2020
Peter Tinti World Politics Review September 8, 2020
Judd Devermont Center for Strategic and International Studies August 19, 2020
Africa Center for Strategic Studies July 21, 2020
Kalev Stoicescu International Centre for Defence and Security July 2020
Joe Parkinson, Michael M. Phillips, and Warren P. Strobel Wall Street Journal June 28, 2020
Robbie Gramer and Colum Lynch Foreign Policy May 21, 2020
Peter TInti World Politics Review April 30, 2020
International Crisis Group April 24, 2020
Modibo Ghaly Cissé Africa Center for Strategic Studies April 22, 2020
Katherine Zimmerman Critical Threats Project April 22, 2020
Alex Thurston War on the Rocks April 16, 2020
Judd Devermont and Marielle Harris Center for Strategic and International Studies April 15, 2020
Sergey Sukhankin Jamestown Foundation March 20, 2020
MIchael M. Philipps Wall Street Journal March 15, 2020
Sirwan Kajjo Voice of America March 3, 2020
Eric Schmitt New York Times February 27, 2020
Hassane Kone Institute for Security Studies February 12, 2020
J.H. Elswood Jamestown Foundation February 7, 2020
Lisa Schlein Voice of America February 2, 2020
Olivier-Remy Bel War on the Rocks January 24, 2020
Cara Anna Associated Press January 23, 2020
Africa Center for Strategic Studies January 18, 2020
International Crisis Group December 20, 2019
David Lewis and Ryan McNeill Reuters November 22, 2019
International Crisis Group November 13, 2019
Wendy Williams Africa Center for Strategic Studies October 17, 2019
Danielle Paquette Washington Post October 10, 2019
Africa Center for Strategic Studies September 27, 2019
Al Jazeera August 24, 2019
Reuters August 13, 2019
Africa Center for Strategic Studies August 8, 2019
Pauline Le Roux Africa Center for Strategic Studies July 29, 2019
Africa Center for Strategic Studies July 9, 2019
Peter Dörrie World Politics Review June 25, 2019
Dario Cristiani Jamestown Foundation June 14, 2019
New Humanitarian May 31, 2019
International Crisis Group May 28, 2019
European Council on Foreign Relations May 2019
Greg Hackleton Foreign Brief April 9, 2019
James Blake Foreign Policy March 29, 2019
Siobhán O'Grady Washington Post March 29, 2019
Eric Schmitt New York Times March 1, 2019
New Humanitarian February 26, 2019
Michael M. Phillips and Joe Pakinson Wall Street Journal February 24, 2019
Africa Center for Strategic Studies February 15, 2019
Anna Pujol-Mazzini World Politics Review January 29, 2019
Alex Thurston War on the Rocks January 23, 2019
Emily Estelle Critical Threats December 19, 2018
International Crisis Group December 13, 2018
Emily Estelle Critical Threats October 5, 2018
Robbie Corey-Boulet World Politics Review September 27, 2018
Center for Strategic and International Studies September 25, 2018
Philip Kleinfeld IRIN September 4, 2018
Lara Seligman Foreign Policy September 4, 2018
Jason Warner and Charlotte Hulme CTC Sentinel August 2018
Alice Hunt Friend Center for Strategic and International Studies August 15, 2018
Wesley Morgan Politico July 2, 2018
Sam Ellis Vox June 21, 2018
International Crisis Group June 12, 2018
Ibrahim Ahmed Voice of America May 30, 2018
Paul Carsten and Ahmed Kingimi Reuters April 29, 2018
Eric Schmitt New York Times April 22, 2018
Human Rights Watch Human Rights Watch April 9, 2018
United States Holocaust Memorial Museum April 2018
Rinaldo Depagne International Crisis Group March 5, 2018
Fabien Offner IRIN February 19, 2018
Nathaniel Powell War on the Rocks February 8, 2018
Economist February 2, 2018
Anthony Morland IRIN January 25, 2018
International Crisis Group December 12, 2017
Levi Maxey Cipher Brief November 17, 2017
Mariama Diallo Voice of America November 3, 2017
Audu Bulama Bukarti Institute for Global Change October 31, 2017
Alan Taylor The Atlantic October 24, 2017
International Crisis Group October 5, 2017
Lisa Inks Newsweek September 23, 2017
Joe Penney Defense One August 15, 2017
Aurélien Tobie SIPRI July 2017
Andrew Lebovich Brookings Institution July 2017
Michael Shurkin, Stephanie Pezard, and S. Rebecca Zimmerman RAND Corporation June 2017
Conor Gaffey Newsweek June 6, 2017
BBC June 2017
Amanda Sperber IRIN News May 29, 2017
Ibrahim Maiga and William Assanvo Institute for Security Studies April 3, 2017
International Crisis Group March 1, 2017
Alex Thurston International Peace Institute January 18, 2017
Delphine Mechoulan, Lesley Connolly, and Minna Hojland IPI Global Observatory November 29, 2016
Deutsche Welle July 31, 2016
Katarina Hoije Voice of America July 7, 2016
Andrew Lebovich European Council on Foreign Relations May 12, 2016
Corinne Dufka New York Times May 9, 2016
Al Jazeera May 9, 2016
Christopher S. Chivvis RAND Corporation 2016
International Crisis Group December 14, 2015
IRIN November 2015
Latest CFR Analysis
John Campbell World Politics Review October 13, 2020
Michelle Gavin CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” August 27, 2020
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” August 20, 2020
Claire Felter and Nathalie Bussemaker CFR In Brief August 12, 2020
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” June 9, 2020
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” February 28, 2020
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” January 14, 2020
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” January 9, 2020
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” November 14, 2019
Adam Valavanis CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” September 4, 2019
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” May 17, 2019
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” February 12, 2019
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” June 5, 2018
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” June 1, 2018
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” May 18, 2018
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” February 2, 2018
Claire Felter and Jason Warner CFR Interview November 6, 2017
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” October 20, 2017
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” June 5, 2017
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” November 22, 2016
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” March 16, 2016
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” March 1, 2016
Paul D. Williams CFR Council Special Report May 2015
John Campbell CFR blog, "Africa in Transition" April 28, 2015
Zachary Laub and Jonathan Masters CFR Backgrounder
John Campbell CFR Blog, “Africa in Transition” July 30, 2014
John Campbell and J. Peter Pham CFR Expert Brief January 14, 2014
Primary Sources
United Nations July 6, 2017
United Nations June 23, 2017
The World Factbook CIA
UN News Centre August 8, 2016
United Nations August 8, 2016
U.S. Department of State
United Nations Security Council September 22, 2014
African Union September 16, 2014
The White House August 6, 2014
United Nations Security Council June 25, 2014