
Instability in Egypt
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Middle East and North Africa
Significant
Unchanging
Political Instability
Recent Developments
In February 2018, Egyptian President Abdel Fatah al-Sisi ordered the Egyptian military to defeat the militant group Wilayat Sinai, a local affiliate of the self-proclaimed Islamic State. The military subsequently announced the launch of wide-ranging counterterrorism measures in the Sinai Peninsula and parts of the Nile Delta and Western Desert. Operations have included the demolition of homes, commercial buildings, and farms, resulting in the displacement of thousands. The military stated in February 2019 that it has killed more than five hundred and fifty militants since operations began in 2018.
After orchestrating the arrests of his primary challenger and dozens of critics, Sisi was re-elected for a second term in March 2018. Sisi has since pushed through new laws to combat extremism, including one in August 2018 that increased government control over the internet, and has consistently extended Egypt’s state of emergency, which was first declared in April 2017 following terrorist attacks on Coptic churches. In February 2019, a proposal to extend Sisi's presidency and expand his power was put before Egypt's parliament; despite allegations of bribery, the proposal was approved in a referendum later that month, allowing Sisi to extend his term and run again in 2024.
Background
Wilayat Sinai (formerly known as Ansar Beit al-Maqdis) emerged as a terrorist organization in the Sinai Peninsula following the popular uprising and subsequent overthrow of President Hosni Mubarak in 2011. Mubarak’s successor, the democratically elected President Mohammed Morsi, was also ousted from power by the military in July 2013 following widespread anti-Muslim Brotherhood protests. After a year-long interim government, former Defense Minister Abdel Fatah al-Sisi was elected president in May 2014 and vowed to continue crackdowns against the Muslim Brotherhood and its supporters.
In November 2014, Wilayat Sinai declared its allegiance to the Islamic State. The group has since claimed responsibility for numerous attacks, including the November 2017 attack on a mosque that killed more than three hundred people, the April 2017 attack on Coptic churches in Tanta and Alexandria that killed at least forty-four people, the December 2016 attack on at a Coptic chapel in Cairo that killed at least twenty-five people, and the October 2015 downing of a Russian airplane that killed all 224 people aboard. Wilayat Sinai has also carried out attacks on Egyptian military and government sites near Egypt’s border with Gaza and Israel, prompting security cooperation between Egypt and Israel.
Egypt also faces a burgeoning terrorist threat in its western desert where al-Qaeda affiliate, Ansar al-Islam, has begun operating. The group orchestrated an attack on Egyptian security forces in October 2017 and has since operated along Egypt’s border with Libya.
Since assuming office in 2014, Sisi has enacted economic reforms to improve the flagging economy, and counterterrorism laws to combat the threat of insurgency. Critics of Sisi have warned that his government has marginalized poor communities, repressed free speech, and infringed on human rights.
Concerns
The United States remains concerned that Egypt’s Sinai Peninsula and Western Desert could become sanctuaries for the Islamic State and al-Qaeda. Terrorist groups could also contribute to political instability in Egypt, which remains a key regional ally for the U.S. military, further destabilize Libya, and threaten Israel.
Alerts
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Instability in Egypt

Instability in Egypt





Background Articles
Ronen Bergman and Declan Walsh New York Times October 3, 2019
Agence France-Presse September 29, 2019
Stratfor September 26, 2019
Jemimah Hudson Jamestown Foundation September 20, 2019
Yousuf Abdelfatah and David E. Thaler RAND Corporation August 12, 2019
Maged Mandour Carnegie Endowment for International Peace August 6, 2019
Yezid Sayigh Carnegie Middle East Center July 29, 2019
Michele Dunne Carnegie Endowment for International Peace July 9, 2019
Bob Bowker Interpreter June 19, 2019
Bahey Eldin Hassan Carnegie Endowment for International Peace May 9, 2019
Maged Mandour Carnegie Endowment for International Peace April 25, 2019
Lisa Blaydes Hoover Institution April 22, 2019
Muhammad Mansour Jamestown Foundation April 22, 2019
Jeremy M. Sharp Congressional Research Service March 12, 2019
Nathan J. Brown Carnegie Endowment for International Peace February 27, 2019
Wael Gamal Carnegie Middle East Center February 1, 2019
Muhammad Mansour Jamestown Foundation January 25, 2019
Muhammad Mansour The Jamestown Foundation November 2, 2018
Bruce Rutherford Foreign Affairs October 22, 2018
Jeremy M. Sharp Congressional Research Service June 7, 2018
Human Rights Watch May 22, 2018
Zack Gold World Politics Review May 22, 2018
Sudarsan Raghavan Washington Post April 23, 2018
Sudarsan Raghavan Washington Post March 14, 2018
Declan Walsh New York Times February 10, 2018
David D. Kirkpatrick New York Times February 3, 2018
Michael Shkolnik War on the Rocks January 22, 2018
Andrew McGregor Jamestown Foundation January 15, 2018
Nour Youssef New York Times December 26, 2017
Evan W. Burt Wilson Center November 2017
Bennett Seftel Cipher Brief November 28, 2017
Declan Walsh and David D. Kirkpatrick New York Times November 25, 2017
Adam Taylor Washington Post November 24, 2017
Sudarsan Raghavan Washington Post September 15, 2017
Amnesty International July 6, 2017
Tom Stevenson World Politics Review June 15, 2017
Al Jazeera May 21, 2017
David Schenker Foreign Affairs May 10, 2017
Mohamed Hassan and Lin Noueihed Reuters May 2, 2017
Sahar Aziz Brookings Institution April 30, 2017
Philip Pullella and Mahmoud Mourad Reuters April 28, 2017
Nathan J. Brown Washington Post April 13, 2017
Magdy Samaan and Declan Walsh New York Times April 9, 2017
Mohamed Soliman Foreign Affairs March 24, 2017
World Report 2016 Human Rights Watch
Amina Ismail and Lin Noueihed Reuters December 12, 2016
The Islamists Woodrow Wilson International Center for Scholars
Daniel Byman Lawfare Blog September 19, 2016
Liam Stack New York Times August 2, 2016
New York Times
Mohamad Bazzi Reuters July 1, 2016
Zack Gold Atlantic Council June 30, 2016
Zack Gold and Elissa Miller Foreign Affairs June 16, 2016
Oren Kessler and Max Peck Foreign Affairs May 17, 2016
BBC May 12, 2016
Zack Gold Atlantic Council MENA Source April 13, 2016
Mokhtar Awad Foreign Affairs February 4, 2016
Michael Wahid Hanna Foreign Affairs November/December 2015
The Tahrir Institute for Middle East Policy November 2015
Emily Dyer and Oren Kessler The Henry Jackson Society 2014
Latest CFR Analysis
Zachary Laub CFR Backgrounder August 15, 2019
Steven A. Cook Foreign Policy June 19, 2019
Steven A. Cook Foreign Policy December 19, 2018
Lisa Anderson, Howard Eissenstat, and Richard N. Haass CFR Event April 11, 2018
Steven A. Cook CFR Blog, "From the Potomac to the Euphrates" April 6, 2018
Steven A. Cook CFR Blog, "From the Potomac to the Euphrates" March 13, 2018
Elliott Abrams CFR Blog, "Pressure Points" January 23, 2018
Steven A. Cook The Atlantic December 21,2017
Micah Zenko and Steven A. Cook CFR Blog, "Politics, Power, and Preventive Action" - Podcast June 27, 2017
Steven A. Cook CFR Book June 2017
Elliott Abrams CFR Testimony April 25, 2017
CFR Interactive
Zachary Laub CFR Backgrounder
Steven A. Cook CFR Blog, "From the Potomac to the Euphrates" March 10, 2016
Elliott Abrams CFR Blog, "Pressure Points" January 25, 2016
Steven A. Cook CFR Blog, "From Potomac to the Euphrates" November 9, 2015
Zachary Laub CFR Backgrounder
Steven A. Cook CFR Contingency Planning Memorandum April 2014
Primary Sources
Egypt's State Information Service February 11, 2018
U.S. Department of State
The World Bank
U.S. Department of State
National Counterterrorism Center
CFR Experts

Eni Enrico Mattei Senior Fellow for Middle East and Africa Studies and Director of the International Affairs Fellowship for Tenured International Relations Scholars