North Korea Crisis
Background
North Korea (officially called the Democratic People’s Republic of Korea) is isolated, impoverished, and a proclaimed enemy of its southern neighbor, South Korea (officially called the Republic of Korea)—an important U.S. ally. Kim Jong Un, who inherited the title of supreme leader from his father and grandfather, regularly threatens Japan, South Korea, and the United States with missile strikes. At home, Kim has silenced all opposition by detaining between 80,000 and 120,000 political prisoners, purging high-ranking officials, and likely ordering the assassination of his half-brother.
U.S. military involvement in the Korean peninsula has its roots in the Korean War of the early 1950s during the early stages of the Cold War, in which the United States supported forces in the southern part of the peninsula against communist forces in the north, who were aided militarily by China and the Soviet Union. Today, the United States is committed to defending South Korea under the terms of a mutual defense treaty [PDF]. The United States has nearly 29,000 troops deployed in the Korean peninsula for that purpose. In addition to U.S. troops, many of South Korea’s 630,000 troops and North Korea’s 1.2 million troops are stationed near the Demilitarized Zone (DMZ), making it one of the most heavily armed borders in the world.
In violation of UN Security Council resolutions, North Korea continues overt nuclear enrichment and long-range missile development efforts. Although the scale of North Korea’s uranium enrichment program remains uncertain, U.S. intelligence agencies estimate [PDF] that it has enough plutonium to produce at least six nuclear weapons, and possibly up to sixty. Decades of negotiations have so far failed to curb North Korea’s nuclear weapons program; see CFR’s timeline for a detailed history of the talks.
In September 2017, North Korea conducted its sixth nuclear weapons test, its most powerful test to date. It also claimed to have developed a hydrogen, or thermonuclear, bomb, which would represent further advancements in the nuclear program and the ability to build more powerful, higher-yield nuclear weapons. In the same year, the country conducted its first successful test of an intercontinental ballistic missile (ICBM), and U.S. intelligence agencies determined that North Korea could miniaturize its nuclear weapons to fit inside a missile. However, North Korea has not yet demonstrated that its nuclear warheads can withstand reentry into Earth’s atmosphere.
In response to the increasing frequency of missile tests, the United States has deployed an anti-missile system in South Korea. The Terminal High Altitude Area Defense (THAAD) system is located in the Seongju region of South Korea, one hundred and fifty-five miles from the northern border. Additionally, Japan, South Korea, and the United States maintain unilateral sanctions on North Korea, and the UN Security Council has passed harsh multilateral sanctions. In 2017, the United States placed North Korea back on a list of state sponsors of terrorism, a move that allowed additional sanctions.
In 2018, North and South Korea began a diplomatic rapprochement, and North Korean officials attended the Opening Ceremony of the Winter Olympics in Pyeongchang, South Korea. Kim announced a freeze on weapons testing, attended three summits with South Korean President Moon Jae-in, and met three times with Donald Trump, who became the first U.S. president to step foot in North Korea. At their summits, Kim and Moon signed statements pledging to work toward denuclearization of the Korean peninsula and an official end to war between the two countries. Ultimately, though, nuclear negotiations with the United States reached a deadlock, and North Korea restarted weapons testing in 2019. In 2020, North Korea blew up a North-South liaison office, and Kim announced a new phase in relations, labeling South Korea an enemy.
In 2020, at the start of the pandemic, North Korea implemented one of the world’s strictest border closures, further depressing the country’s economy and exacerbating hunger. However, North Korea did not report any COVID-19 cases for months and in 2021 rejected foreign vaccines. Entry restrictions extended to foreign dignitaries, isolating North Korea almost completely.
Concerns
North Korea is a nuclear power with a complex relationship with China, and preventing both an interstate Korean war and a North Korean internal collapse are critical U.S. national security interests. Along with continued weapons and missile tests, small-scale military and cyber provocations by North Korea pose significant risks as each incident carries with it the potential for further and potentially uncontrollable escalation. Outright threats from North Korean Supreme Leader Kim Jong-un are also cause for concern, as he claims that North Korean weapons can now reach U.S. territories and even the U.S. mainland.
Recent Developments
In 2022, after a two-year lull in testing, North Korea launched a record number of missiles. Frequent tests have continued into 2023 and included its first solid-fuel ICMB, the Hwasong-18, which requires less time to launch and is easier to hide. If successfully developed, it would decrease the probability of success of a pre-emptive strike on North Korea’s arsenal. It also lobbed a missile over Japan for the first time since 2017 and tested a record twenty-three missiles in a single day in November 2022. In July 2023, Kim received high-level Chinese and Russian delegations for the first time in years and vowed to strengthen bilateral relations with each.
In an initial 2021 policy review, the Joe Biden administration outlined a middle-ground approach to North Korea, combining diplomacy and deterrence. In line with that policy, in July 2023, U.S. National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan said the administration was prepared for talks “without preconditions;” days later, South Korean President Yoon Suk Yeol boarded a U.S. nuclear-capable ballistic missile submarine visiting Busan, South Korea.
Yoon has adopted a more hardline stance on North Korea than his predecessor. He called for a reorientation of the unification ministry and has boosted military cooperation with the United States, including by moving the THAAD missile defense system toward full operability. Yoon also committed to improving ties with Japan, and Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida has reciprocated. Biden, Kishida, and Yoon will meet for the first standalone trilateral summit in August 2023 to strengthen strategic cooperation.
Overall, in the last year, both North and South Korea have taken a less compromising position, shored up alliances, and ramped up military provocations and readiness.
U.S.-South Korea Fuel Partnership
Washington will launch a joint venture to help Seoul enrich uranium fuel for its nuclear power plants, South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said at a news conference today; South Korea had previously been prohibited from enriching its own uranium as part of a bilateral agreement with the United States and as a result imported its uranium from sources like Russia (Yonhap). Lee today also reaffirmed Seoul’s commitment not to obtain nuclear weapons (NYT).
South Korea’s Lee Pushes for Renewed Talks With North
South Korean President Lee Jae Myung said he hopes U.S. President Donald Trump can persuade North Korea to resume dialogue, suggesting that Pyongyang takes Washington more seriously than Seoul (Reuters). As part of outreach efforts, Lee said he was considering apologizing to North Korea over alleged provocations under his predecessor, including suspected drone flights and propaganda campaigns, though the call drew criticism from opposition parties (AP).
Kim Commemorates North Korean Air Force
At ceremonies marking the force’s eightieth anniversary, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un signaled forthcoming upgrades to its capabilities, including new drones and surveillance aircraft; the declarations underscore a push to modernize the country’s air operations (Reuters).
U.S.-South Korea Military Exercises
North Korean state media claimed the drills, including naval and air exercises near key bases in South Korea, were designed to intimidate Pyongyang; Seoul has reiterated its openness to dialogue to reduce the risk of clashes along the border, though North Korea has ignored this outreach (Reuters).
Expansion of North Korean Nuclear Complex
Satellite imagery indicates continued upgrades across North Korea’s Yongbyon nuclear facility, underscoring Kim Jong-un’s push to grow the country’s nuclear stockpile as Pyongyang continues rejecting diplomacy (The Times)
Heightened Risk of Accidental Clash on Korean Peninsula
South Korean President Lee Jae-myung said inter-Korean relations have deteriorated to the point where unintended conflict is possible, citing Pyongyang’s refusal to respond to Seoul’s outreach and its installation of new barbed-wire barriers along the border (Reuters).
South Korea Proposes Talks With North
South Korea asked North Korea to hold military discussions on reestablishing a mutually recognized boundary along the military demarcation line amid increased North Korean fortification work and repeated troop incursions into the South; Pyongyang has not answered outreach efforts since the end of 2023 (Reuters). Separately, North Korea condemned Washington’s approval for Seoul to develop nuclear-powered submarines, claiming expanded U.S.-South Korea ties would fuel an arms race and deepen regional tensions (Newsweek).
U.S.-South Korea Ties
The South Korean government announced that it had signed a memorandum of understanding with the United States worth over $350 billion covering several industries, including artificial intelligence capabilities, nuclear cooperation, and shipbuilding; talks to implement an agreement on a South Korean nuclear submarine will likewise continue, officials said (CNBC; Reuters).
South Korea To Support UN Measure on North
Seoul said it will again co-sponsor the annual UN resolution criticizing North Korea’s human rights abuses, despite speculation that the new government might soften its stance to revive talks with Pyongyang (Reuters).
North Korean Threats
North Korean Defense Minister No Kwang Chol condemned U.S.-South Korea security talks and the arrival of a U.S. aircraft carrier in Busan, promising his country would take action in response; the statement comes amid increased tensions on the Korean Peninsula following a North Korean ballistic missile launch and U.S. sanctions targeting cyber-linked entities (Reuters).
North Korea Fires Ballistic Missile Into Eastern Waters
South Korea’s military reported that the missile landed in the East Sea outside Japan’s exclusive economic zone, adding it had monitored launch preparations and is coordinating with the United States and Japan; the test follows a series of recent North Korean missile launches (Reuters). Meanwhile, senior defense officials from Pyongyang and Moscow met this week to discuss deepening military ties, as North Korea continues to assist Russian war efforts in Ukraine (AP).
Doubts Loom Surrounding Proposed Nuclear-Powered Submarine
South Korean Prime Minister Kim Min-seok said Philadelphia’s South Korean-owned shipyard lacks the capacity to construct a nuclear-powered vessel despite U.S. President Donald Trump’s approval of the project, while Seoul’s defense chief argued such submarines would be better built domestically; U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth said Washington is reviewing how to fulfill the commitment with relevant U.S. agencies (Reuters).
North Korea Criticizes New U.S. Sanctions
The North Korean vice foreign minister claimed that the sanctions would bring no advantage to U.S. interests in the Korean Peninsula and stated that his country would respond to the U.S. move accordingly (Reuters).
U.S. Sanctions on North Korea
The Treasury Department blacklisted eight people and two organizations accused of helping funnel revenue to Pyongyang’s weapons programs through cyber-enabled laundering networks, including proxy banking operations in China and Russia; the move targets foreign currency flows, ransomware proceeds, and support for overseas North Korean workers used to evade sanctions (Reuters). Meanwhile, a South Korean lawmaker said South Korean intelligence believes Pyongyang may seek a meeting with U.S. President Donald Trump after military events in early 2026, despite North Korea’s public reluctance to denuclearize; the White House has already signaled openness to talks (NBC).
U.S. Defense Chief in Korea
U.S. Secretary of Defense Pete Hegseth toured the Demilitarized Zone with South Korean officials as both sides prepare for annual defense consultations focused on cost-sharing, wartime command transfer, and nuclear-powered submarine cooperation; the visit also included joint fighter flights meant to showcase allied deterrence as concerns persist over North Korea’s missile buildup (AP). Meanwhile, a State Department official suggested that the United States plans to ask a Security Council committee to punish seven vessels accused of shipping North Korean coal and iron ore to China in violation of international restrictions, saying the trade helps bankroll Pyongyang’s weapons programs, though the need for a unanimous UN vote leaves China and Russia poised to block action (Reuters).
North Korea Dismisses Denuclearization
North Korean officials denied a claim from South Korea that a summit between Chinese President Xi Jinping and South Korean President Lee Jae Myung would discuss denuclearization of the Korean Peninsula, dismissing the claim as a “pipe dream” (Reuters).
Trump Greenlights South Korean Nuclear-Powered Submarine
U.S. President Donald Trump made the announcement after meeting with South Korean President Lee Jae Myung in Seoul, adding that broader defense cooperation will increase as well; once South Korea builds the submarine, it will become one of a small group of states to possess nuclear-powered vessels (Reuters).
North Korea Missile Test
The South Korean military announced that North Korea launched sea-to-surface cruise missiles as part of its broader nuclear force development, days before U.S. President Trump was set to meet regional leaders (AP). The test launch follows a recent ballistic missile test that was North Korea’s first in five months (CNN). During his Asia tour, Trump reportedly lamented the failure to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un to revive dialogue on the long-running conflict on the Korean peninsula (NYT).
Trump Comments on Potential Kim Meeting
U.S. President Donald Trump said he would “love” to meet with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during his visit to South Korea, though Pyongyang has not responded; Kim has indicated openness to talks only if Washington halts its denuclearization demands, while U.S. officials confirm no meeting is currently planned (NYT). A South Korean official had likewise predicted that such a meeting was unlikely in the near future (Reuters). Meanwhile, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui attended the Minsk International Conference, which gathered over forty countries to discuss security in Eurasia, and reiterated North Korea’s commitment to intervening in the region (Korea Herald). A day earlier, Choe visited Moscow to meet with Russian President Vladimir Putin, who asked the envoy to tell North Korean Leader Kim Jung-un that bilateral ties were “going to plan” (Independent).
North Korea-Russia Ties
Speaking at a ceremony in Russia’s Kursk region honoring North Korean soldiers killed in the war against Ukraine, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said the “militant fraternity” between Pyongyang and Moscow would “advance non-stop” (Reuters). Meanwhile, South Korea’s unification minister said there is a “considerable” chance U.S. President Donald Trump and Kim Jong-un will meet during Trump’s South Korea visit next week, reiterating previous speculation from U.S. media; the leaders last met in 2019 at Panmunjom (AFP).
North Korean Missile Launch
North Korea conducted its first ballistic missile tests in five months today, South Korea’s military said; these were the first such missile tests since South Korean President Lee Jae-myung took office in June, pledging to restore peace on the peninsula (AP). Pyongyang said the missiles were part of a new hypersonic weapons system boosting its nuclear posture (AP). The launch comes as Trump and other world leaders are slated to visit South Korea next week (CNN).
Monitoring of North Korea Accelerates
France and Australia deployed aircraft and naval assets to Japan to help enforce UN sanctions on North Korea, joining other U.S. allies monitoring illicit maritime transfers; the Japanese Foreign Ministry said that the deployments underscore allied coordination in pressuring North Korea toward denuclearization (Newsweek).
North Korean Soldier Defects to South Korea
The soldier crossed the Demilitarized Zone and surrendered to South Korean forces, expressing intent to resettle; it marks the first defection of its kind since August 2024 (AP).
Trump Administration Contemplates Kim Jong-un Meeting
U.S. officials are exploring a potential meeting between President Donald Trump and North Korean leader Kim Jong-un during Trump’s upcoming Asia visit, though no formal planning or communications with Pyongyang have yet occurred; both leaders have expressed openness to renewed talks following Kim’s recent remarks to the North Korean parliament (CNN).
North Korean Military Parade
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un attended a major military parade in Pyongyang to mark the ruling party’s eightieth anniversary, showcasing the new Hwasong-20 intercontinental missile, which is the country’s most advanced; Chinese Premier Li Qiang, Russia’s Dmitry Medvedev, and Vietnam’s To Lam attended, as Kim pledged to strengthen the military and signed agreements to deepen ties with Russia and Vietnam (Reuters). Following the military celebrations, South Korea said that Russian technology may have helped build the novel missile (Korea Times).
Kim Vows New Military Measures Against U.S. Buildup
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said Pyongyang has deployed “special assets” to counter the growing U.S. military presence in South Korea and will develop additional military measures, state media reported (Newsweek).
Russian and North Korean Defense Ministers Meet
Russian Defense Minister Andrei Belousov met his North Korean counterpart No Kwang Chol in Moscow, where they unveiled a memorial honoring Koreans who fought with Soviet forces in World War II (Reuters). Marking China’s seventy-sixth National Day, North Korean leader Kim Jong-un also sent a message to Chinese President Xi Jinping vowing to further strengthen bilateral ties (Anadolu Agency).
North Korea at UNGA
North Korea’s vice foreign minister told the UN General Assembly that the country would not give up its nuclear weapons; he made no direct reference to Trump, and did not respond to a recent declaration by South Korea’s president that Seoul seeks a “shift to a stance of mutual respect” (AP). His speech marked the first time a senior North Korean diplomat had attended the gathering since 2018 (NYT). Meanwhile, North Korean Foreign Minister Choe Son Hui met with Foreign Minister Wang Yi and Premier Li Qiang in Beijing, pledging to strengthen bilateral cooperation and resist “hegemonism,” a veiled reference to U.S. influence (AP).
Kim Orders Full Support for Nuclear Program
North Korean dictator Kim Jong-un directed officials and scientists to devote all resources to advancing the country’s nuclear arsenal, vowing to “sharpen and renew the nuclear shield and sword” to guarantee sovereignty and security (Reuters).
North Korea Nears Ability to Launch Missiles at the United States
The warning came from South Korean President Lee Jae Myung, who said Pyongyang likely needs only to master atmospheric re-entry to field up to twenty nuclear-armed intercontinental ballistic missiles able to hit the United States; Lee urged a plan to freeze and later dismantle Pyongyang’s nuclear arsenal while suggesting Trump could restart talks with North Korean leader Kim Jong-un (NBC).
United States Sanctions North Korean Arms Network
The Treasury Department’s Office of Foreign Assets Control blacklisted five people and a Burmese company, Royal Shune Lei, for funneling weapons and revenue to North Korea’s nuclear and missile programs and for brokering sales to Myanmar’s junta; designated figures include representatives of the Korea Mining Development Trading Corporation and the Reconnaissance General Bureau (Treasury). Meanwhile, South Korea’s Unification Minister Chung Dong-young said that North Korea is operating four uranium enrichment facilities to expand its nuclear weapons, estimating that Pyongyang now holds about 2,000 kilograms of highly enriched uranium, up sharply from past assessments; such stockpiles could fuel dozens of nuclear bombs (AP).
South Korea Fires Warning Shots at North Korean Ship
The incident occurred after a North Korean merchant vessel briefly crossed the disputed Northern Limit Line near Baengnyeong Island; the vessel retreated without returning fire (AP).
Kim Says North Korea Open to U.S. Talks if Denuclearization Demand Dropped
North Korean leader Kim Jong-un said Pyongyang is willing to resume dialogue with Washington if the United States abandons its “obsession” with denuclearization, stressing that nuclear arms are vital; Kim recalled fond memories of Trump, while rejecting recent overtures from Seoul and Washington as insincere (Reuters).
Kim Suggests AI Drone Development a Military Priority
North Korean leader Kim Jong Un oversaw drone performance tests in Pyongyang and said artificial intelligence in unmanned systems is a “top priority,” calling for expanded drone production as the country continues to advance missile and nuclear capabilities (Al Jazeera).
Report Says Russia Gains Far More Than North Korea From War Partnership
A study by a German think tank found North Korea has supplied Russia with up to $9.8 billion in weapons since 2023, while Pyongyang has received less than $1.2 billion in aid; analysts say the imbalance gives Kim Jong Un battlefield testing and political recognition but little economic benefit (Al Jazeera). Meanwhile, a new UN Human Rights Office report says repression in North Korea has worsened significantly over the past decade (DW).
North Korea Declares Nuclear Status “Irreversible”
Pyongyang claimed its status as a nuclear weapons state is irreversible under its constitution, rejecting International Atomic Energy Agency oversight, as U.S., South Korean, and Japanese forces began Freedom Edge 25 joint drills near Jeju Island; North Korea warned the exercises threaten regional stability (ABC News).
Seoul Says Kim Jong Un Positioning Daughter as Likely Successor
South Korea’s intelligence agency told lawmakers that Kim Ju Ae’s accompaniment of her father during his recent trip to Beijing was enough to solidify her status as Kim Jong Un’s successor; the visit also involved high-level meetings with Xi Jinping and Vladimir Putin (Reuters).