Recent Developments

Since January 2016, there have been over 615,000 registered asylum applicants in the EU. Although total projections for refugee flows into the EU are lower than in 2015, current rates predict an alarming increase in ‘covert’ arrivals that will result in a discrepancy of 63 percent between filed asylum claims and registered new arrivals by the end of the year. A June 2016 UN report found that a record-high total of 65.3 million people had been displaced worldwide by conflict and persecution in 2015.

In September 2016, during his state of the European Union speech, EU President Jean-Claude Juncker called upon member states to further their peacebuilding involvement in the Syrian conflict through establishing a European strategy for Syria. To regulate the large flows of asylum seekers into Europe by way of both land and sea, the EU also established the European Border and Coast Guard (EBCG). The EBCG’s first mandate was to ramp up security measures at the Bulgarian external borders. The EU has increased pressure on Greece to set up new appeals committees to speed up judicial processes to cope with the influx of asylum requests. Upwards of eight thousand asylum seekers remain in limbo on the Greek islands. So far, the EU has only opened 7 percent of its possible relocation sites, despite the goal of opening one-third of all relocation sites by the end of 2016.

In May 2016, the EU proposed new asylum rules that would require member countries to accept and resettle refugees or face penalties. Under the rules, countries facing a 150 percent increase in asylum applications relative to their population and gross domestic product (GDP) would be able to redistribute refugees to countries with fewer asylum seekers. Thus far, this burden-sharing mechanism has received strong pushback from some central European EU member states. Further threatening the EU’s ability to handle the refugee crisis, the United Kingdom voted to leave the European bloc in June 2016, with supporters of the vote citing high levels of immigration as a leading concern.

In March 2016, the EU signed the EU-Turkey Joint Action Plan—which human rights groups criticize as a violation of the 1951 Refugee Convention—in an effort to curb the illegal entry of migrants and refugees into the European bloc. A failed coup attempt in July by a faction of the Turkish military could widen this political fissure now that president Erdogan is responding with heavy-handed policies that run counter to EU principles.The EU also signed an agreement with Afghanistan in October 2016 obliging the Afghan government to accept the return of an unlimited amount of asylum seekers being returned from EU member states.

Background

Since 2011, the civil war in Syria has been the biggest driver of migration, resulting in 4.8 million registered refugees fleeing the country, with an additional one million escaping conflicts in Iraq and Afghanistan. Over 80 percent of people attempting to reach Europe—primarily from Syria, Afghanistan, Iraq, Somalia, and Eritrea—are fleeing war and repressive governments. These refugees are entitled to protection under international law, as they face persecution if returned home. Other people, often referred to as economic migrants, are making the journey in search of job opportunities.

People fleeing due to conflict generally do so with the intent to return home, leading many Syrians to find refuge in neighboring countries. But as the civil war in Syria enters its sixth year with no signs of abating, many refugees are risking seeking asylum in Europe, making the perilous journey across the Aegean, the Mediterranean, and on foot through the Balkans. Refugees suffer from a myriad of issues in host countries. Children are unable to attend school, missing out on years of education; women and girls face sexual abuse and exploitation; work permits are hard to obtain, forcing families deeper into poverty; and health services have become increasingly scarce, as host governments face resource and financial pressures.

As of October 2016, over 2.7 million Syrians had escaped to Turkey, making the country the largest host of refugees. The sudden population surge has placed a significant burden on Turkey’s economy, as the country has spent nearly $8 billion to provide homes for the refugees. Refugees have also fled to and placed considerable economic, social, and political strains on various European countries. Countries facing the largest influx of migrants, such as Germany, Hungary, Sweden, Italy, and Greece, are struggling to financially support incoming refugees and integrate them into society. Protests have emerged across Europe expressing both pro and anti-refugee sentiment. In 2015, the EU increased its budget to ten billion euros to handle the crisis.

The refugee crisis has sparked growing fears for citizens across Europe. Tensions reached a boiling point in early 2016 after the New Year’s Eve sexual assault attacks in Cologne, Germany, when over one thousand women were sexually assaulted, allegedly by migrants of North African and Arab descent. The event ignited violent anti-immigrant protests across Germany.

Right-wing political parties and far-right groups have capitalized on fears stemming from the influx of refugees to advance their agendas and build popular support. Many have made electoral gains across several European nations, including Hungary, Poland, and most recently, Austria. Some right-wing vigilante groups, primarily located in Central and Eastern Europe, have taken it upon themselves to patrol trains, streets, and other public places to defend citizens against what they perceive to be dangerous refugees. Recent surveys show that Europeans see refugees from Iraq and Syria as one of the top threats behind the self-proclaimed Islamic State.

Concerns

Recent terror attacks carried out or inspired by the Islamic State have made Western countries, including the United States, reluctant to accept refugees. Following the November 2015 Paris attacks, more than half of U.S. governors vowed to close their doors to refugees citing concern that militants could pose as refugees to enter the United States. In response, policymakers are considering legislation that includes banning the entrance of Syrian refugees altogether, increasing screening of incoming refugees, and reducing the number of admitted refugees.

For other European allies, the continued flow of refugees also poses significant concerns, such as the growing fear of a terrorist attack, or riots between refugees, host communities, and the police. Considering the close relationship between the United States and many European countries, an attack or sudden instability in the EU may require a response from United States. The United States, under the NATO defense treaty, is responsible to assist and protect any of the twenty-six European countries within the alliance, including by use of armed force. Approximately 62,000 U.S. military personnel are stationed in the EU, while another 4,200 troops have been continually rotating in and out of the region since 2014.