Council of Councils
Think Global Health
Africa Program
Preparing for Leadership Transitions in Africa
Project Expert
About the Project
A number of African states have recently experienced watershed leadership transitions. The Gambia’s Yahya Jammeh, president for twenty-two years, unexpectedly lost the 2016 elections and, despite his best efforts, was forced to concede; Angola’s president of forty-one years, Eduardo Dos Santos, stepped down in September 2017. Zimbabwe saw the end of Robert Mugabe’s thirty-seven-year rule when the military forced him to resign in February 2018. Whether because of old age, the ballot box, or very persuasive men in uniforms, several more long serving rulers can be expected to leave the political stage in the next decade. My research and writing focus primarily on the period before a leadership transition occurs in places where such transitions have become unfamiliar. By developing some typologies for these transitions, I aim to identify best practices that prepare countries for these inevitable changes in leadership in order to reduce the chances of conflict and instability after they occur. This requires identifying potential sources of latent internal political influence, determining the interest of these actors, and establishing new networks of relationships among internal and external parties with a stake in a given country’s future. This project focuses on African states, but draws on insights from other regions as well. Importantly, this work is not about hastening regime change, but rather on reducing the risk of miscalculation in transitions and improving the prospects for consensus-building in moments of national uncertainty.
-
The promise of a more transactional U.S.-Africa relationship risks alienating African populations.
-
Elections in Namibia and proposed negotiations in Mozambique make this a pivotal week for the region’s future governance.
-
Attempts to change the constitution of the Democratic Republic of Congo only exacerbate existing citizen distrust in government.
-
Outsiders must do more than shrug at outright rigging and post-election violence.
-
Despite a summer of protests, African leaders are doubling down on the status quo.
-
South Africa has formed a governing majority; whether they can successfully govern remains to be seen.
-
As South Africa concludes a set of historic national elections, questions remain on how its democracy will fare in response to a new set of challenges.
-
The United States should resist a “business as usual” approach to Chad.
-
In assessing Chad’s upcoming elections, the junta’s actions should speak louder than their words.
-
As external actors seem to lessen pressure on West Africa’s juntas, Guineans register their discontent with military governance.
-
President Macky Sall’s decision to postpone Senegal’s elections threatens the country’s democratic identity.
-
Attempts to promote “stability” in 2019 bear predictable consequences in the Democratic Republic of Congo’s most recent election.
-
While Zimbabwe’s ruling party continues its campaign to quash opposition forces post-election, the Southern African Development Community takes a “business as usual” approach.
-
The government’s heavy-handed response to recent local elections may spell trouble for Mozambique’s security and democracy prospects.
-
Democracy is decidedly worse for wear in Africa following a set of sham elections in Zimbabwe and Gabon, with few bright spots in the upcoming electoral calendar.
-
Three decades after the fight for multiparty democracy in Africa, many on the continent still face sham elections, restrictions of rights, and few improvements.
-
Sudan’s crisis is deepening, and the international response is utterly inadequate.
-
Echoes of the past in Senegal as growing uncertainty over a potential third term for President Sall triggers protests and unrest.
-
An impenetrable electoral process in Zimbabwe breeds cynicism in the next generation of voters, to the peril of democracy efforts.
-
Despite military officials seizing power from the transitional government one year ago, Sudanese citizens continue to mobilize for a democratic future.
-
While the Twitter war between Uganda and Kenya may be entertaining, the implications of a succession crisis in Uganda are serious.
-
Blaming external actors for the country’s woes accomplishes little for the Malian people.
-
Now affirmed by the Supreme Court, the Ruto administration will have campaign promises put to the test.
-
With a divided electoral commission and legal challenges in the works, Kenya’s presidential election is neither the disaster some feared, nor the unambiguous success hoped for by champions of democracy.
-
Kenya’s next president will have to win more than just votes to gain legitimacy.
-
Sudan's June 30 demonstrations reflect citizens' desire for civilian control of the state, and the junta's discomfort with expressions of popular will. The international actors involved with Sudan should take note.
-
Zimbabwe’s worsening social, political, and economic landscape means trouble for the Southern Africa subregion.
-
Somali politicians use nationalism to evade political pressure that seeks to create a more accountable and effective state.
-
Botswana's Directorate of Intelligence and Security is the subject of controversy in a feud between the country's current and former presidents.
-
Citizens of African states are natural partners in the fight to support a rules-based international order that curbs authoritarian regimes' excesses.
-
Kenya's pivotal role as a regional powerbroker could be compromised by domestic distractions related to this year's presidential election.
-
U.S. policy has been largely ineffectual in reversing democratic backsliding in the Horn of Africa.
-
American policy in Africa has not always empowered those fighting on behalf of democracy—and sometimes even supports anti-democratic forces—taking away from its stated aim of promoting democracy abroad.
-
Uganda's entry into the eastern Democratic Republic of Congo to combat the terrorist Allied Democratic Forces (ADF) diverts attention away from equally pressing issues at home.
-
Sudan's military leaders are prioritizing their own interests over that of their country. International actors should pressure the regime by raising the cost of doing so.
-
The coup in Sudan shows that the military members of the transitional government were never truly committed to implementing democracy in the manner sought by protesters who forced Omar al-Bashir from power in 2019.
-
The eventual succession to Paul Biya, Cameroon's president since 1982, will likely prove a critical moment for Cameroon and its overlapping political and security crises.
-
The world should not look away from Swazis' continuing fight for democracy.
-
Reports of a failed coup attempt in Sudan make clear the fragility of the transitional government, which is riven by civil-military tensions.
-
The impact of the Biden administration's threat to impose sanctions on certain individuals involved in the Tigray conflict in Ethiopia is likely to be limited.
-
Reflections on the shortcoming of U.S. policy in Afghanistan have brought lessons that can be used to rethink American policy toward Somalia.
-
The judicial ruling which found the Building Bridges Initiative (BBI) in Kenya unconstitutional could force Kenya's politicians to pay greater heed to the limits on power outlined in the country's 2010 constitution.
-
Hakainde Hichilema's win in Zambia's presidential election allays some fears of democratic decline, but his administration will inherit economic problems from incumbent President Edgar Lungu.
-
The backdrop to the current Zambian election cycle is far from an environment conducive to debating solutions for the serious challenges Zambians face.
-
In the Democratic Republic of Congo, opaque dealmaking facilitated the transfer of power from Joseph Kabila to Felix Tshisekedi. It is not too early for policymakers to encourage a more democratic process in 2023.
-
The protests in eSwatini, one of the world’s last absolute monarchies, call renewed attention to the gulf between Southern Africa’s professed principles and the region’s realities.
-
A cursory glance at recent headlines from Zimbabwe could give one the impression that things are looking up. A recent World Bank report predicted growth of nearly 4 percent this year. The government …
-
As the horrific suffering in Ethiopia’s Tigray region continues, the United States and other members of the international community are sounding ever more urgent alarms.
-
On May 31st, the people of Somaliland went to the polls to participate in long-delayed parliamentary and municipal elections.
-
President Cyril Ramaphosa of South Africa has an extraordinarily tough job. He leads a country reeling from a series of corruption scandals and a party at war with itself.
-
As the insurgency in northern Mozambique continues to escalate, not only is the humanitarian crisis deepening, but the instability’s ripple effects are being felt far beyond Mozambique’s borders.
-
Ethiopia has the world’s attention. The United Nations Security Council finally found its voice to call for improved humanitarian access and express concern over reports of sexual violence in Tigray.
-
When it comes to fighting COVID-19, the Biden Administration has made it clear that tamping down the threat domestically is its first priority. While early moves to commit funds to COVAX and reengage…
-
The ripple effects emanating from the death of Chadian President Idriss Déby on April 20 are only beginning to be apparent. Most immediately, the future of Chad has been thrown into question. Déby re…
-
Surrounded by regional turmoil and managing complicated domestic politics, the pressure is rising on Kenya, a critically important economic and security partner to the United States, to help shape a …
-
Senegal is easy to admire, but the latest news from Senegal is worrying, and it forces observers to grapple with the country’s complexities and challenges.
-
As the crisis persists in Ethiopia, the government in Addis Ababa aims to draw clear lines for the international community, positioning itself as a cooperative partner (after months of obstruction) i…
-
Last month, South Africa’s Daily Maverick newspaper published a damning exposé on corruption in Zimbabwe. The report, titled Cartel Power Dynamics in Zimbabwe [PDF], details off-the-books networks wo…
-
The crisis in Ethiopia’s Tigray region continues to demand international attention and action to remove barriers to the delivery of desperately needed humanitarian assistance; in a volatile and strat…
-
Among the Trump administration's many eleventh hour decisions that will require quick review by President Biden’s team was the choice to withdraw nearly all U.S. military personnel from Somalia.
-
On January 14, Uganda will hold national elections, an exercise that is shaping up to be more of an opportunity for incumbent President Yoweri Museveni to demonstrate the repressive power of the stat…
-
As 2020 draws to a close, the terrible toll of the conflict in Ethiopia’s Tigray region is coming into sharper focus. The human costs continue to mount; the United Nations estimates that 1.3 million …
-
When Félix Tshisekedi assumed power in in the Democratic Republic of the Congo at the start of 2019, he did so not because of the will of the voters (who apparently favored a different candidate), bu…
-
Too often, the Trump Administration’s engagement with Africa has been characterized by insults and neglect. In their final days in office, Administration officials have doubled down on that posture, …
-
The Financial Times recently reported that the European Union is preparing a proposal for the incoming Biden Administration that envisions a comprehensive strengthening of transatlantic cooperation a…
-
Tanzania’s fundamentally flawed elections in late October, and the additional repression unleashed in their immediate aftermath, have provoked international alarm and criticism. From pre-election con…
-
Over the past week, as many have been distracted by the U.S. elections, an extraordinarily dangerous unraveling has picked up speed in Ethiopia. Months of simmering tensions between the leadership o…
-
Last week President Trump invited reporters to listen in on a call intended to celebrate the normalization of relations between Sudan and Israel, a diplomatic achievement that comes with more than a …
-
This week, President Trump made the long-anticipated announcement that the United States is prepared to remove Sudan from the list of State Sponsors of Terrorism (SST). Sudan has been on the list of …
-
The worsening crisis in northern Mozambique is a case study in why governance matters. For years, the prevailing narrative about Mozambique was all about peace dividends, economic growth, and the pro…
-
On September 8, U.S. Senators Jim Risch and Ben Cardin, joined by an impressive bipartisan group of cosponsors, introduced a resolution calling for an end to the violence in Cameroon and for inclusiv…
-
Local and Traditional Leadership
When Mali’s summer of discontent culminated in a coup on August 18, media coverage was soon full of images of celebrating citizens, and opposition leaders expressed approval of the military takeover… -
Early this month, President Alassane Ouattara of Côte d'Ivoire announced his intention to run for a third term, an undertaking that may not violate the letter of Ivorian law (presuming that the 2016 …
-
CFR Senior Fellow for Africa Studies Michelle Gavin interviews Founder and President of the African Center for Economic Transformation Dr. K.Y. Amoako.
-
As experts sound the alarm about rising COVID-19 cases in Africa, Tanzania’s President John Magufuli has a very different message. In Magufuli’s telling, Tanzania is free from the virus and tourists …
-
From the dismal domestic disarray that continues to sicken and kill Americans across the country to the dysfunction at the UN Security Council and brittle fractures in international cooperation, it i…
-
-
In the United States and around the world, societies are struggling to balance the sometimes draconian social controls needed to combat a highly contagious infectious disease with the need for limits…
-
The startling death of Burundian President Pierre Nkurunziza earlier this week raises new questions about the future direction of his country. Nkurunziza’s legacy is not a happy one. After taking …
-
The sickening murder of George Floyd, and the laudable fact that the press in the United States is free to report it and to tell the story of the protests sweeping the nation, has again exposed just …
-
CFR Senior Fellow for Africa Studies Michelle Gavin interviews writer, lawyer, and governance expert Judith February.
-
On May 17, twenty-six years after the Rwandan genocide, Félicien Kabuga was finally arrested outside of Paris. A wanted man for decades, he was the most notorious architect of the 1994 atrocities sti…
-
CFR Senior Fellow for Africa Michelle Gavin interviews founding leader of the Alliances and Partnerships Program at Human Rights Watch Maina Kiai.
-
Despite the COVID-19 pandemic, it’s full steam ahead in Burundi with regard to the presidential and parliamentary elections slated for May 20. As recent weeks brought news of the first recorded cases…
-
CFR Senior Fellow for Africa Michelle Gavin interviews President of the Citizenship and Development Party in the Democratic Republic of Congo Martin Fayulu.
-
CFR Senior Fellow for Africa Michelle Gavin interviews Cofounder and CEO of Shining Hope for Communities Kennedy Odede.
-
In many African states, food insecurity is a serious problem getting worse by the day. This week, international experts sounded the alarm about acute food shortages affecting some 135 million people,…
-
Since assuming office in 2018, South African President Cyril Ramaphosa has consistently disappointed those who hoped that he would usher in a new era of South African leadership in foreign policy. W…
-
Last weekend, as Americans pondered how our election cycle will proceed in the midst of the constraints and disruption necessitated by the coronavirus, the people of Guinea found themselves deciding …
-
Public Health Threats and Pandemics
The coronavirus pandemic dominating global headlines and individual anxiety lists powerfully illustrates the importance, and fragility, of trust in public officials. Public health depends upon partic… -
Ugandans are scheduled to head to the polls early next year to select a president, parliamentarians, and local officials. But recent reports suggest that a shockingly large number of young Ugandans w…
-
This week’s remarkable court ruling in Malawi, which annulled the 2019 presidential election and called for new polling, may hold important lessons for other societies experiencing declining trust in…
-
2020 is off to a rough start for “Africa’s richest woman,” Isabel dos Santos, the jet-setting daughter of former Angolan President José Eduardo dos Santos, who led his country for 38 years until bein…
-
The year ahead for Zimbabwe is looking grim. The vast majority of its people will continue to suffer, and its leaders will continue to blame others for their own failures. Friends of Zimbabwe in the …
-
Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed’s ambitious reform plans for Ethiopia will be tested in the year ahead. Since taking the helm of government in April 2018, Abiy has been a whirlwind of activity, opening up …
-
2019 brought spectacular change to Sudan. It’s hard to overstate the astonishing distance the country has traveled over the past year. Recent headlines feature reports of truly unfettered humanitaria…
-
Twenty years ago, I was catching my breath after a whirlwind trip through central and southern Africa. I had been traveling with my boss, Senator Russ Feingold, whose expertise on African affairs eve…
-
Last week, when U.S. Ambassador to Zambia Daniel Foote expressed his dismay about a Zambian court ruling sentencing two men to fifteen years in prison for the crime of conducting a same-sex relations…
-
Protests that began last week in and around Beni in eastern Democratic Republic of the Congo have continued into this week, claiming several lives. Civilians on the ground, frustrated and frightened …
-
Burkina Faso is in trouble. The shocking ambush of a Canadian mining company’s convoy earlier this month was part of a relentless series of deadly attacks perpetrated both by terrorist organizations …
-
Southern Africa recently wrapped up two dramatically different elections. In Mozambique, presidential, parliamentary, and regional elections were characterized by irregularities and even violence, bu…
-
Several successive years of being one of the world’s fastest-growing economies have made Ivory Coast a darling of investors bullish about Africa. But the country’s strong economic performance has not…
-
Last week, the Committee to Protect Journalists ranked Eritrea "the most censored country in the world." That unsurprising conclusion is only the latest dubious distinction for Eritrea, a state that …
-
Recently, Ugandan civil society organizations warned about the likelihood of increasing political violence leading up to the country’s 2021 general elections. Disturbing incidents of opposition figur…
-
Despite some important progress toward a transitional framework for Sudan—on July 5, the civilian-led forces of the Freedom and Change coalition and the Transitional Military Council signed a deal on…
-
Before the presidential elections of March 2015, former Nigerian President Goodluck Jonathan’s international reputation was not a strong one. Jonathan was initially something of an accidental preside…
-
Anyone fishing for a good news story out of Africa recently, and rightly, has celebrated Ethiopia, where dynamic young Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed has dramatically opened political space, departing fro…
-
The news out of Sudan, so recently full of fragile hope, is now deeply troubling. For over a week, the Transitional Military Council, or TMC, has been violently suppressing the very protestors whose …
-
Political developments in Botswana are attracting unprecedented attention, causing some pundits to fret about the stability of its longstanding democracy. While it is undoubtedly true that Botswana i…
-
The people of Sudan have earned the world’s admiration and respect. Their bravery, persistence, unity, and discipline have achieved what for so many years had seemed impossible - the end of Omar al-B…
-
The news out of Algeria continues to intrigue. Now that ailing President Abdelaziz Bouteflika, in power since 1999, has stepped down, Algerians and people around the world wonder if real change is a…
-
This week’s Economist’s cover story, “The New Scramble for Africa” is a welcome, general overview of geopolitical dynamics on the continent. Understood in a continuum of famous Economist Africa cover…
-
In the run-up to last year’s presidential and parliamentary elections in Zimbabwe, hope was palpable in Harare. Civil society activists, journalists, and business leaders marveled at how political sp…
-
Several southern African states are in the news for anti-corruption efforts. In South Africa, President Cyril Ramaphosa has established a special tribunal to expedite state efforts to track down ill-…
-
The alarming reports out of Tanzania have become commonplace. Current Tanzanian President John Magufuli, who swept into office on a popular anti-corruption platform, has been presiding over a shockin…
-
When John Bolton rolled out the Trump administration’s Africa strategy late last year, many observers noted the absence of language around strengthening democratic accountability and strong governanc…
-
This week’s alarming developments in Zimbabwe have prompted a curious response from President Emmerson Mnangagwa. A massive popular protest against fuel price increases, fed by broader frustration wi…
-
The Democratic Republic of the Congo’s complicated and long-delayed elections ended with a surprise twist. Most of those riveted by the middle-of-the-night announcement of results had two likely outc…
-
The past few months have not been comforting for advocates of dynastic succession in Africa. In Togo and Gabon, favorite sons have become focal points for popular frustration. Togo’s Gnassingbé Ey…
-
Since the middle of December, something extraordinary has been happening in Sudan. Fed up with crippling inflation, angry about years of economic mismanagement, and unconvinced that needed reforms ar…
-
For many South Africa watchers, it can be difficult to conceive of the state as a separate entity from the ruling African National Congress (ANC). The ANC is so closely associated with the long strug…
-
As Cameroon-watchers await the official results of this month’s elections amid court challenges, the outcome is highly predictable—victories for the ruling Cameroon People’s Democratic Movement (CPDM…
-
The fact that Zimbabwe is experiencing an economic crisis is neither surprising nor terribly illuminating; most saw this coming months ago as it became clear that there was a currency crisis in the o…
-
Recent news out of Angola has raised the stakes in new President Joao Lourenco’s push to differentiate his tenure from that of his predecessor. Though he became president in September 2017, it was no…
-
Equatorial Guinea’s Teodoro Nguema Obiang Mangue (nicknamed Teodorin), vice president of Equatorial Guinea, son of his country’s president, and heir apparent to that office, made headlines this week…
-
Recent events have shone an international spotlight on Uganda, where the government’s treatment of parliamentarian and musician Robert Kyagulanyi, better known by his stage name, Bobi Wine, is bringi…
-
After keeping his own citizens and the international community in suspense for over two years past the end of his mandate in 2016, President Joseph Kabila of the Democratic Republic of the Congo anno…
-
The people of Zimbabwe turned out in impressively large numbers—the Zimbabwe Electoral Commission reported 70 percent of voters turned out—on July 30 to choose a way forward for their country. The el…
-
Cameroon is a country in crisis. Longstanding tensions between the center and periphery have morphed into brutal conflicts, with government forces confronting Boko Haram in the north and Anglophone s…
-
Lately, the news from Uganda has been troubling. Rising crime rates have come to dominate the national narrative, as murders, robberies, and kidnappings have raised alarm among average citizens and e…
-
Over the weekend, an explosion rocked White City Stadium in Bulawayo, Zimbabwe, where President Emmerson Mnangagwa was campaigning on behalf of himself and the ruling party of the Zimbabwe African Na…
-
Michelle Gavin is a senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. From 2011 to 2014, she served as the U.S. ambassador to Botswana and to the Southern African Deve…
-
Michelle Gavin is a senior fellow for Africa studies at the Council on Foreign Relations in New York. From 2011 to 2014, she served as the U.S. ambassador to Botswana and to the Southern African Deve…
-
Ethiopia, a strategically located regional power with over 100 million people and one of the fastest growing economies in the world, has a new prime minister. Abiy Ahmed is a compelling figure and hi…
-
On April 1, Botswana inaugurated its fifth president, Mokgweetsi Masisi. The presidency is structurally very strong in Botswana and its past leaders have been giants. Filling the shoes of his predece…
-
The recent move to eliminate presidential term limits in China is music to the ears of many African leaders uninterested in transitioning out of power, and a blow to emerging African governance norms…