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November 18, 2004

Taking away the punch bowl when the party is really getting going?

That is the classic view of the role of the central bank. It extends beyond using monetary policy to prevent "overheating" and price inflation. Most central bank regulate the banking system, and si…

January 8, 2005

Has the broad dollar fallen enough

A standard rule of thumb, mentioned by Paul Blustein in his excellent look at the impact of a falling dollar on US trade last week, is that a 10% fall in the broad dollar leads to a $100 billion fall…

December 18, 2004

The October trade data was really bad …

I missed the actual release, but it is worth noting that the "guts" of the October trade data are rather discouraging. Forget the headline number: we knew it would be bad because of oil. Look at wh…

January 15, 2005

Economics
Latest speech of FRBNY President Tim Geithner

I pay a certain amount of attention to what New York Federal Reserve President Tim Geithner has to say just because he was my boss at the Treasury and the IMF (noted in the spirit of full blog disclo…

December 11, 2004

United States
The Global Test

My harping on the fact that US economic policy now has to pass a global test is not simply meant to score rhetorical points. I suspect that the same folks who financed the expansion of the US curren…

January 10, 2005

United States
Apparently, like budget deficits, trade deficits do not matter anymore

Kevin Drum brought the latest National Review "trade deficits do not matter" article to my attention today. I learned a few things, namely that Steven Roach is part of a media misinformation campaig…

November 10, 2004

United States
September trade: dueling headlines

Monthly exports set a record sounds better than third highest monthly trade deficit ever, or second highest monthly imports ever. All accurately describe this month’s trade release.The fact that exp…

November 15, 2004

Where are George Soros and the other macro hedge funds?

With apologies to Philip Coggan, I plagarized his FT headline from a few days ago -- he asked the same question as Brad DeLong, namely, why aren’t big bets from big macro hedge funds driving the doll…

December 11, 2004

United States
Data releases next week

I am going to be away from my desk next week, and don’t expect to be posting much -- at least not until next Friday. I’ll miss three key data releases:The October trade data on Tuesday.The October T…

January 3, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Borrowing is Saving, Up is Down

Edmund Andrews of the New York Times provides the Rosetta stone that lets us decipher the Bush Administration’s plan to cut the deficit, which seems to be a plan to pretend to cut the deficit. Here i…