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February 15, 2018

Europe
“Doom Loop” Binding Weak Banks and Sovereigns Still Haunts Europe “Doom Loop” Binding Weak Banks and Sovereigns Still Haunts Europe

One important reason no one talks about Puerto Rico leaving the “dollar zone” is that the island’s banks have minimal exposure to its government’s debt. There is thus no need even to consider int…

January 24, 2018

United States
Did Tax Reform Really Give Walmart Employees a Raise? Did Tax Reform Really Give Walmart Employees a Raise?

“Thanks to the Tax Cuts And Jobs Act, Walmart—America’s largest employer—is raising wages,” tweeted House Speaker Paul Ryan on January 11. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon was only too happy to embrace …

January 11, 2018

China
China Is Heaping Debt on Its Least Productive Companies China Is Heaping Debt on Its Least Productive Companies

When Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to mention the word “deleveraging” in his long-awaited new economic blueprint in December it was clear that the political tug of war between the advocates…

January 5, 2018

United States
The Growth Effects of U.S. Tax Reform The Growth Effects of U.S. Tax Reform

In Foreign Affairs online last month, we used our own implied earnings growth (IEG) estimates from stock prices around the world to evaluate President Trump’s impact on the U.S. market. We found …

December 20, 2017

Economics
The Phillips Curve Is Dead. Long Live the Phillips Curve! The Phillips Curve Is Dead. Long Live the Phillips Curve!

“I am confident that the apparent disconnect between growth and inflation is a temporary phenomenon,” said ECB executive board member Yves Mersche on December 6. The “deep downturn” in the Eurozo…

December 13, 2017

Japan
Japanese Monetary Policy Is Working, But the BoJ Can’t Tell You Why Japanese Monetary Policy Is Working, But the BoJ Can’t Tell You Why

In September 2016, the Bank of Japan adopted a new strategy to boost the flagging Japanese economy: “yield curve control,” or YCC. The aim was to widen the gap between long- and short-term intere…

November 17, 2017

Economics
Fed's Projected Balance-Sheet Evolution & Projected Policy-Rate Increases Will Powell Be an Accidental Hawk?

Fed Chair nominee Jerome (Jay) Powell was a logical choice for Fed chair. A business-friendly Republican, he is likely to push forward President Trump’s deregulation agenda in the financial sector wh…

February 13, 2018

United States
The Marshall Plan, Central to Europe’s Recovery and the Emergence of the Cold War, Holds Lessons for Present Tensions Wi

February 13, 2018—The Marshall Plan—the costly and ambitious initiative to revive western Europe after World War II—marked the true beginning of the Cold War, argues Benn Steil. Bringing to bear …

January 17, 2018

Israel
Adnan Abidi/Reuters Is Israel’s International Isolation Diminishing?

Votes against Israel at the United Nations over the decades seem to indicate it is a pariah nation, but the country’s expanding bilateral ties tell a different story.

January 8, 2018

Israeli-Palestinian Conflict
WestBankWall Israel Moves to Annex the West Bank—This Is How the Two-State Solution Dies

While the media focuses on Trump, Netanyahu imposes a “solution”: There will never be a Palestinian state.