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May 7, 2018

Emerging Markets
Should We Fear a Tighten Tantrum? Should We Fear a Tighten Tantrum?

Back in May 2013, then-Fed Chair Ben Bernanke roiled emerging markets (EM) with the mere suggestion that the Fed might soon pare back its monthly asset purchases under so-called quantitative easi…

April 18, 2018

China
China’s Currency Internationalization Is Failing; Oil Futures Won’t Rescue It China’s Currency Internationalization Is Failing; Oil Futures Won’t Rescue It

As we documented in a post one year ago, what The Economist once called the “unstoppable” internationalization of China’s currency—the RMB—has been stopped. Indeed, reversed. As the left-hand …

April 9, 2018

Europe
It Takes More Than Money to Make a Marshall Plan It Takes More Than Money to Make a Marshall Plan

The Marshall Plan, the historic U.S. aid initiative to speed western Europe’s recovery after World War II, is rightly legendary for its vision and accomplishments. The $13.2 billion the United St…

March 20, 2018

NAFTA
Why Canada and Mexico May Be Big Winners From Steel Tariffs Why Canada and Mexico May Be Big Winners From Steel Tariffs

As the Trump Administration prepares to slap 25 percent tariffs on imported steel this Friday, March 23, two countries are set to be big winners. Back in 2002, President George W. Bush imposed…

March 8, 2018

United States
Trump Steel Tariffs Could Kill Up to 40,000 Auto Jobs, Equal to Nearly One-Third of Steel Workforce Trump Steel Tariffs Could Kill Up to 40,000 Auto Jobs, Equal to Nearly One-Third of Steel Workforce

“I want to bring the steel industry back into our country,” declared President Trump last month. “Maybe [things] will cost a little bit more, but we’ll have jobs.” Tariff opponents in Congress…

February 27, 2018

China
Beijing and Shanghai Overbuild Suggests Growth Hit by 2019 Beijing and Shanghai Overbuild Suggests Growth Hit by 2019

“Houses are built to be inhabited,” scolded Chinese leader Xi Jinping at last October’s 19th Party Congress, and “not for speculation.” After a year’s worth of mortgage-rate hikes and new home…

February 15, 2018

Europe
“Doom Loop” Binding Weak Banks and Sovereigns Still Haunts Europe “Doom Loop” Binding Weak Banks and Sovereigns Still Haunts Europe

One important reason no one talks about Puerto Rico leaving the “dollar zone” is that the island’s banks have minimal exposure to its government’s debt. There is thus no need even to consider int…

January 24, 2018

United States
Did Tax Reform Really Give Walmart Employees a Raise? Did Tax Reform Really Give Walmart Employees a Raise?

“Thanks to the Tax Cuts And Jobs Act, Walmart—America’s largest employer—is raising wages,” tweeted House Speaker Paul Ryan on January 11. Walmart CEO Doug McMillon was only too happy to embrace …

May 4, 2018

Iran Nuclear Agreement
President Trump speaks about the Iran nuclear agreement at the White House in October 2017. How Sanctions Decision Could Jeopardize the Iran Agreement

Iran could restart aspects of its nuclear program if President Trump declines to renew sanctions waivers this month, leaving major powers with few options for monitoring or restricting it.

January 11, 2018

China
China Is Heaping Debt on Its Least Productive Companies China Is Heaping Debt on Its Least Productive Companies

When Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to mention the word “deleveraging” in his long-awaited new economic blueprint in December it was clear that the political tug of war between the advocates…