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November 9, 2018

China
Foreign Capital Has Been Propping Up China’s Currency. Here’s What Happens When It Leaves.

“I think China’s manipulating their currency, absolutely,” President Trump said back in August. Yet the People’s Bank of China (PBoC) was, and has been, intervening to keep the RMB up, and not to…

Foreign Capital Has Been Propping Up China’s Currency. Here’s What Happens When It Leaves.

October 30, 2018

Economics
The Fed Should End Forward Guidance

In the Wall Street Journal earlier this month, we examined the change over time in the market reaction to Fed “forward guidance” on future interest rates. During the crisis, with the Fed’s policy…

The Fed Should End Forward Guidance

October 18, 2018

China
With Growth Sagging, China Shifts Back to Socialism

“Deleveraging at State-Owned Enterprises,” said Chinese president Xi Jinping back in July 2017, “is of the utmost importance.” Fast forward to today, and the sentiment rings hollow. With growt…

With Growth Sagging, China Shifts Back to Socialism

September 18, 2018

United States
U.S. Housing-Market Trends Suggest Recession Around Election Time, 2020

Ten years ago, in September 2008, plunging home prices pushed Lehman Brothers into bankruptcy, fueling a financial crisis that sent the United States, and much of the world, into a deep recession…

U.S. Housing-Market Trends Suggest Recession Around Election Time, 2020

September 6, 2018

Trade
Trump’s Trade War Is Hitting U.S. and China Stocks Equally

“Tariffs are working far better than anyone ever anticipated,” President Trump tweeted on August 4. “China market has dropped 27% in last 4 months.” The president’s numbers are off—China’s sto…

Trump’s Trade War Is Hitting U.S. and China Stocks Equally

November 9, 2018

Oil and Petroleum Products
Emerging Market Contagion Could Hit the Oil Industry

This is a guest post by Benjamin Silliman, research associate for Energy Security and Climate Change at the Council on Foreign Relations.  When the Trump administration announced temporary waivers…

Turkish Lira and Dollar banknotes.

August 13, 2018

Russia
Did Russia Really Dump Its U.S. Debt?

“Russia dumped 84% of its American debt,” blared a July CNN headline. Russian central-bank head Elvira Nabiullina said the sales were just part of “diversifying the entire structure of currencies…

Did Russia Really Dump Its U.S. Debt?

July 23, 2018

International Economic Policy
Is Trump Right About the Strong Dollar? Not According to Our Mini Mac Index.

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June 25, 2018

United States
Is the Fall in Foreign Treasury Holdings a Trump Dump?

“In the age of Trump,” warned a Bloomberg op-ed last year, “America’s biggest foreign creditors are suddenly having second thoughts about financing the U.S. government.” Today, with Trump piling …

Is the Fall in Foreign Treasury Holdings a Trump Dump?

June 19, 2018

United States
Trump’s Tariffs Are Hurting U.S. Competitiveness

President Trump is seeking to reduce the U.S. trade deficit through tariffs, but logic and historical data show that his strategy will not help American jobs, growth or exports. Worse, loss of access to foreign parts amid a trade war will hurt American companies that depend on them to stay globally competitive.

Trump’s Tariffs Are Hurting U.S. Competitiveness