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January 17, 2018

U.S. Congress
Royce-Africa-Powell-Congress Ed Royce, Champion of Africa in the U.S. House, Will not Run for Reelection

This is a guest blog post by Anthony Carroll. Anthony is founding director of Acorus Capital, a private equity fund investing in Africa, and a vice president of Manchester Trade Limited, an internati…

October 17, 2017

China
Bitcoin and the Yuan Bitcoin and the Yuan

This is a guest post by Cole Frank, a research associate at the Council on Foreign Relations. China watchers are always looking for new ways to gauge capital flows and pressure on the yuan. The mo…

September 15, 2017

Eurozone
The Global Cost of the Eurozone’s 2012 Fiscal Coordination Failure The Global Cost of the Eurozone’s 2012 Fiscal Coordination Failure

The eurozone countries collectively did far too much fiscal adjustment in 2011, 2012, and 2013. Germany joined in the consolidation in 2012, hurting the eurozone—and the world.

July 11, 2017

Middle East and North Africa
2016 Curve Follow the External (Balance of Payments) Breakevens of the Oil Exporters

The global impact of oil’s fall from $100 plus to under $50 a barrel has not gotten as much attention as I think it deserves. For most oil exporters, it has been a profound shock—one that forced such…

June 29, 2017

United States
Tracking the Broad Dollar The Trump Dollar Revisited

Disaggregating the broad dollar.

June 23, 2017

U.S. Foreign Policy
woman looks into a book You Might Have Missed: Academic Journals VI

This is the sixth blog post in this series. The previous five were published in February, July, and October 2015, and January and May 2016, and highlight earlier academic findings. This post was coau…

June 21, 2017

Intelligence
FBI agents respond to a crime scene. The FBI’s Role in National Security

The Federal Bureau of Investigation has been reoriented toward counterterrorism in recent years, but continues to face charges of overreach.

May 22, 2017

China
Can China Finance One Belt One Road Without Jeopardizing Its Own Financial Stability? Can China Finance One Belt One Road Without Jeopardizing Its Own Financial Stability?

The answer, I think, is yes.  Even after Moody's downgrade.  At least so long as China's ambitions for scaling up what seems to have been a roughly a $15 billion-a-year financing program are reasonab…

May 11, 2017

China
China's Q1 Import Surge, Disaggregated China's Q1 Import Surge, Disaggregated

This is a joint post with Cole Frank, a research associate here at the Council on Foreign Relations. One of the challenges China poses is that by the time something shows up cleanly in the numbers…

April 26, 2017

Trade
Using Fiscal Policy to Drive Trade Rebalancing Turns Out To Be Hard Using Fiscal Policy to Drive Trade Rebalancing Turns Out To Be Hard

The idea behind “fiscally-driven external rebalancing” is straightforward. If countries with external (e.g. trade) surpluses run expansionary fiscal policies, they will raise their own level of de…