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February 22, 2018

Puerto Rico
Counting Chickens Long Before They Hatch: Should Hurricane Maria Be Modeled as a Large Positive Growth Shock? Counting Chickens Long Before They Hatch: Should Hurricane Maria Be Modeled as a Large Positive Growth Shock?

Puerto Rico’s latest fiscal plan appears to use a best case scenario as its base case. It consequently doesn’t provide a realistic benchmark for evaluating Puerto Rico’s long-run capacity to pay.

February 21, 2018

Nonproliferation, Arms Control, and Disarmament
Reuters The Uncertain Future of the INF Treaty

Backgrounder examines the Intermediate-Range Nuclear Forces (INF) Treaty, which may now be imperiled by mutual suspicion between Russia and the United States.

February 20, 2018

Southeast Asia
Pence_Widodo_4.20.2017 Shifting U.S.-Indonesia Relations to a Transactional Approach

The U.S.-Indonesia relationship has often disappointed. It’s time to rethink U.S.-Indonesia ties and try to achieve real security goals, rather than make bold plans for cooperation that never come to…

February 16, 2018

North Korea
KCNA Avoiding War With North Korea

The U.S. military is prepared for a number of contingencies with regard to North Korea, but the best path forward is diplomacy aimed at denuclearization.

February 13, 2018

United States
The Marshall Plan Holds Lessons for Present Tensions With Russia, Benn Steil Writes in New Book

February 13, 2018—The Marshall Plan—the costly and ambitious initiative to revive western Europe after World War II—marked the true beginning of the Cold War, argues Benn Steil. Bringing to bear …

February 12, 2018

China
The Belt and Road Initiative Didn't Quite Live up to its Hype in 2017 The Belt and Road Initiative Didn't Quite Live up to its Hype in 2017

China's balance of payments data doesn't show any material increase in the pace of offshore lending.

February 12, 2018

Immigration and Migration
A U.S. Border Patrol agent keeps watch along the fence next to the U.S.-Mexican border in Calexico, California, February 2017. The U.S. Immigration Debate

Comprehensive immigration reform has eluded Congress for years, moving controversial policy decisions into the executive and judicial branches of government.

February 12, 2018

Intelligence
CFS Leitrim The Intelligence Collection Implications of the CLOUD Act

The CLOUD Act is supposed to help foreign law enforcement investigate crime. It could also help foreign countries spy on each other. 

February 9, 2018

South Africa
South-Africa-Zuma-Resign-Last-Week-President Timeline: Opposition Grows as Zuma Remains in Office

The impending resignation of Jacob Zuma as president of South Africa was not necessarily unexpected following the defeat of his preferred candidate in the African National Congress’s (ANC) elections for party leader. However, it is happening more quickly than many observers predicted, including this one.

February 8, 2018

Turkey
Erdogan General Erdogan’s First War

Turkey’s Islamist president is the first civilian with control over his country’s military—and you can tell by the results.