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January 8, 2005

Has the broad dollar fallen enough

A standard rule of thumb, mentioned by Paul Blustein in his excellent look at the impact of a falling dollar on US trade last week, is that a 10% fall in the broad dollar leads to a $100 billion fall…

July 19, 2005

Calculated Risk might want to start looking at the Netherlands

Calculated Risk has long argued that those wanting to peer into crystal ball and see the future of the US economy should look at Britain -- since Britain’s housing boom started before the US boom, an…

November 13, 2004

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Will partial privatization of social security pass the global test?

This post is primarily about the implications of partial privatization of social security on the budget, not about its overall merits. For what it is worth, I personally think good old pay-as-you-go …

June 20, 2005

United States
Setser and Roubini respond to Levey and Brown: deficits do matter

The current issue of Foreign Affairs contains the rebuttal that Nouriel and I wrote to the David Levey and Stuart Brown’s "Current account deficits do not matter" article that appeared in the March/…

October 14, 2005

Financial Markets
Are tax breaks for houses at risk?

Last weekend's Los Angeles Times (via the Economist's View) article on Bush's advisory commission made it pretty clear that at least one member of the commission, Charles Rossotti, had  t…

March 12, 2006

Economics
Read Dan Gross on Globalization a la carte

As usual, Gross has a lot of smart things to say about limits on cross border investment in a no-longer-quite-so-flat world -- or what he calls globalization a la carte. Limits on cross-border invest…

June 18, 2006

Emerging Markets
A hard landing in 2006 - just not in the US?

Nouriel and I postulated back in early 2005 that there was a meaningful risk that the next “emerging market” crisis might come from the US – and it might come sooner than most expected.   The basic q…

March 27, 2006

Economics
The Economist’s Lexington columnist needs to get out a bit more …

Rather amazingly, the only US public intellectuals that seem to have made it onto Lexington's radar screen come from the American right.     The Neocon right and its pet idea (invading Iraq), the…

March 2, 2006

United States
It is official: the current account deficit doesn’t stem from a boom in investment in intangible assets

OK, maybe not official.  But the Economist, drawing on the work of Carol Corrado, Dan Sichel and Charles Hulten, has the key chart.  Check it out. Investment - including investment in intangible asse…

November 5, 2006

Monetary Policy
Stephen Jen - the anti-Roubini (and the anti-Setser)

The odds of a US recession: Nouriel Roubini: 90% Stephen Jen: 13%  I know my comparative advantage does not lie in gauging whether or not a sharp fall in residential investment will spill o…