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February 16, 2018

North Korea
KCNA Avoiding War With North Korea

The U.S. military is prepared for a number of contingencies with regard to North Korea, but the best path forward is diplomacy aimed at denuclearization.

February 15, 2018

United States
Trump’s Tax Success Is at the Expense of His Trade Agenda Trump’s Tax Success Is at the Expense of His Trade Agenda

It looks like a combination of tax cuts and spending increases will raise the U.S. fiscal deficit by about 2 percentage points of GDP (that’s the number Krugman used; Goldman’s US economics team puts…

February 13, 2018

United States
FA MA 2018 Cover Walking Away From World Order: Weighing Trump’s First Year of Foreign Policy

“Nobody really knew what to expect when Donald Trump became U.S. president. Would he disrupt the status quo or maintain it? Blow himself up or escape unscathed? One year in, the answer is yes,” write…

February 5, 2015

United States
Interview With Charlie Rose

Last month, I had the pleasure of joining Charlie Rose on his show along with Jorge Castañeda, Mexico’s former foreign minister, and Francisco Goldman, contributor to The New Yorker, to discuss Mexic…

February 7, 2018

United States
Do Not Overlook the December Trade Data Do Not Overlook the December Trade Data

The increase in the non-oil trade deficit in December should be getting more attention. It matters more than the year-over-year rise in the 2017 trade deficit.

February 6, 2018

NATO (North Atlantic Treaty Organization)
NATO Stoltenberg Why We Are Unconvinced NATO's Cyber Policy Is More Aggressive, and That's a Good Thing

A recent article in Foreign Policy argued that NATO's new Cyber Operations Center signaled the alliance was becoming more aggressive in cyberspace. Is that really the signal NATO was trying to send?

January 24, 2018

United States
Adjustment Is Hard, Especially if it Involves the Dollar Adjustment Is Hard, Especially if it Involves the Dollar

Trump’s tax cut has not, to date, unleashed a wave of global demand for U.S. dollar assets. In fact, the dollar weakened as prospects for the tax cut—and associated rise in the U.S. federal budget…

January 17, 2018

Israel
Adnan Abidi/Reuters Is Israel’s International Isolation Diminishing?

Votes against Israel at the United Nations over the decades seem to indicate it is a pariah nation, but the country’s expanding bilateral ties tell a different story.

January 16, 2018

Thailand
Thailand is Really, and I Mean Really, Close to Meeting the Treasury’s Manipulation Criteria Thailand is Really, and I Mean Really, Close to Meeting the Treasury’s Manipulation Criteria

The Treasury's April foreign exchange report should be interesting. Thailand hasn't been included in past foreign exchange reports.  Yet it is likely to meet all three of the criteria set out in t…

January 11, 2018

China
China Is Heaping Debt on Its Least Productive Companies China Is Heaping Debt on Its Least Productive Companies

When Chinese President Xi Jinping failed to mention the word “deleveraging” in his long-awaited new economic blueprint in December it was clear that the political tug of war between the advocates…