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November 21, 2016

Cybersecurity
CFR Cyber RPG Net Politics How Much Does a Cyber Weapon Cost? Nobody Knows

Max Smeets is a D.Phil candidate and research affiliate of the Cyber Studies Programme at the University of Oxford. His work analyzes the proliferation of cyber weapons. Can a non-state actor take d…

June 24, 2015

Europe and Eurasia
A Full Greek IMF-Debt Default Would Be Four Times All Previous Defaults Combined A Full Greek IMF-Debt Default Would Be Four Times All Previous Defaults Combined

Since the IMF’s launch in 1946, 27 countries have had overdue financial obligations of 6 months or more.*  But the amounts involved have always been small, never exceeding SDR 1bn ($1.4bn). This …

July 2, 2015

Europe and Eurasia
Greece Fallout: Italy and Spain Have Funded a Massive Backdoor Bailout of French Banks Greece Fallout: Italy and Spain Have Funded a Massive Backdoor Bailout of French Banks

In March 2010, two months before the announcement of the first Greek bailout, European banks had €134 billion worth of claims on Greece.  French banks, as shown in the right-hand figure above, had…

June 23, 2015

Europe and Eurasia
Greece and Its Creditors Should Do a Guns-For-Pensions Deal Greece and Its Creditors Should Do a Guns-For-Pensions Deal

IMF Chief Economist Olivier Blanchard has said that Greece needs to slash pension spending by 1% of GDP in order to reach its new budget targets.  The Greek government continues to resist, arguing…

June 5, 2015

Europe and Eurasia
Greece-Troika Gap Over Primary Surpluses Has Shrunk Dramatically Greece-Troika Gap Over Primary Surpluses Has Shrunk Dramatically

Greece has announced that it will not pay the IMF the €300 million due to the Fund on June 5.  Instead, it will “bundle” the payments due to the Fund over the course of June into one payment of ab…

June 1, 2015

Monetary Policy
Are Fed Watchers Watching the Wrong People? Are Fed Watchers Watching the Wrong People?

One effect of the financial crisis was to change how the Fed conducts monetary policy.  This could be long-lasting and important.Prior to the crisis, the Federal Open Market Committee (FOMC) set a…

May 21, 2015

China
Are China’s RMB Swap Lines an Empty Vessel? Are China’s RMB Swap Lines an Empty Vessel?

As our recent CFR interactive shows, central bank currency swaps have spread like wildfire since the financial crisis.  In 2006, the Fed had only two open swap lines outstanding, with Canada and M…

May 7, 2015

Europe and Eurasia
Which Countries Stand to Lose Big from a Greek Default? Which Countries Stand to Lose Big from a Greek Default?

The IMF has turned up the heat on Greece’s Eurozone neighbors, calling on them to write off “significant amounts” of Greek sovereign debt.  Writing off debt, however, doesn’t make the pain disappe…

April 20, 2015

China
Should the United States Encourage Japan to Join the AIIB? Should the United States Encourage Japan to Join the AIIB?

On April 15, China’s finance ministry revealed the 57 “prospective founding members” of the new Asian Infrastructure Investment Bank, of which China is the architect.   The likely founders include…