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January 25, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
When will the bond market wake up

I know, I know, Morgan Stanley’s investors have spoken, and there is no bond market bubble. But the federal government certainly is swimming in a sea of red ink.I hope we have asked the Bank of Japan…

December 29, 2004

United States
Look who is supporting the mortgage market …

No Surprise: the People’s Bank of China. The PBOC has shifted from buying treasuries (03) to buying mortgage backed securities (04).From Reuters: "Make no bones about it, mortgages really went globa…

January 26, 2005

Monetary Policy
The US dollar fails the Chinese test

So China wants to adopt a basket peg because it no longer thinks the dollar is a stable store of value. To quote Mr. Fan, Director of China’s National Institute for Economic Research:The U.S. dollar …

February 18, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
More borrowing, on the other hand, is always a political winner

Deficits really don’t matter, at least in some circlesBush said earlier this week that he would not rule out paying those transition costs by raising the current wage cap of $90,000 that can be taxed…

March 22, 2005

Economics
What did I miss?

Let’s see.Paul Wolfowitz looks set to take over the World Bank. Oil is a bit over $56. That is not low, by any measure. I remember how much concern there was last summer when oil broke $40.The cur…

April 28, 2005

United States
Central banks, cheerleaders and paper losses

This week’s Economist looks at the "paper" losses that central banks issuing local currency (or selling local currency debt) to buy foreign exchange reserves would incur in the event of the revaluati…

May 17, 2005

China
So, is the Bush Administration for bashing China or against it?

Let no one think the Bush Administration doesn’t occasionally try to have it both ways. A month ago the Bush Administration ratcheted up the verbal pressure on China. China was ready to change its…

May 27, 2005

United States
Bretton Woods Two and Trade Politics

The interest rate on the 10 year Treasury note is somewhere between 4.0-4.1% -- and the US seems to be having no trouble financing its current account (or its budget) deficit right now. The risk of…

June 3, 2005

Economics
If Roach says 3.5% and Gross says 3%, someone else has to say 2.5%

Roach and Gross could not stay among the most bullish on bonds for very long. From Marc Gilbert’s column today.Gabe Borenstein, managing director of global investments at Investec Holdings Ltd. in N…

July 19, 2005

Calculated Risk might want to start looking at the Netherlands

Calculated Risk has long argued that those wanting to peer into crystal ball and see the future of the US economy should look at Britain -- since Britain’s housing boom started before the US boom, an…