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October 13, 2008

Financial Markets
An unlimited guarantee requires unlimited access to financing ...

Over the weekend, the countries of the G-7 indicated that they would do "whatever it takes" to prevent another Lehman-style bankruptcy. They pledged to "use all available tools to support systemica…

November 6, 2008

China
How severe a slump in China?

The US, UK, Eurozone and Japan all look to be in recessions. The US and Europe had been the main drivers of global demand growth – at least for finished goods. That is going to change. Emerging…

November 11, 2008

Financial Markets
Give me yield, give me leverage, give me return

“Give me yield, give me leverage, give me return” perfectly sums up how Wall Street bought itself close to financial ruin. JP Morgan’s William Winters didn’t just create help to create CDOs. H…

Give me yield, give me leverage, give me return

December 17, 2008

Monetary Policy
Today’s Fed statement speaks for itself

The Fed cut policy interest rates to zero, more or less. And it signaled that it hasn’t run out of ammunition even if it cannot cut rates further. Not so long as there are still financial asse…

February 10, 2009

Financial Markets
Toxic banks or toxic assets?

Two weeks ago, George Soros memorably framed the core choice the US now faces as a choice between buying toxic assets or taking over toxic banks. “The hard choice facing the Obama administration is …

April 13, 2009

Monetary Policy
China’s reserves are still growing, but at a slower pace than before

If China’s euros, pounds, yen and other non-dollar reserves were managed as a separate portfolio, China’s non-dollar portfolio would be bigger than the total reserves of all countries other than Japa…

China’s reserves are still growing, but at a slower pace than before

June 24, 2009

China
Where is the spillover? China’s stimulus isn’t doing much to support Japanese demand

Japan’s exports to China are still way down on a y/y basis in May, despite China’s stimulus. Shipments to China, Japan’s biggest trading partner, fell 29.7 percent, more than April’s 25.9 percent. E…

November 13, 2009

United States
Unfinished Business: The Futenma Story

As President Obama gets ready to visit Tokyo, much of the media coverage focuses on the high politics of the U.S.-Japan alliance. Is this tension a temporary affliction caused by the transition in To…

December 11, 2009

Japan
Futenma = Alliance?

What a difference a week makes. Going into last week, there was little indication that Japan’s prime minister would effectively end the bilateral effort to find a solution to the Futenma replacement …

December 14, 2009

United States
Tokyo says No...until May?

The Japanese cabinet announced today that it will postpone its decision on a relocation option for Futenma Marine Air Station until May. Yet, it retains the budget needed in its fiscal 2010 budget, a…