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June 23, 2014

Global
Michael Levi Named Director of Maurice R. Greenberg Center for Geoeconomic Studies

The Council on Foreign Relations (CFR) is pleased to announce that Michael A. Levi, David M. Rubenstein senior fellow for energy and the environment and director of the program on Energy Security and…

August 2, 2012

Monetary Policy
Benchmarking the Fed’s Dual-Mandate Performance Benchmarking the Fed’s Dual-Mandate Performance

The Fed has a dual mandate to pursue price stability and maximum employment.  How should these be defined?  In January, the Fed set itself a long-run inflation target of 2%, while in June the midp…

July 16, 2012

Europe and Eurasia
More Evidence That LIBOR Is Hazardous to Economic Health More Evidence That LIBOR Is Hazardous to Economic Health

Central bankers necessarily spend a great deal of time studying economic and market data that they believe to be forward-looking indicators of the economy’s health.  One such is the so-called “LIB…

July 10, 2012

Europe and Eurasia
More Evidence That LIBOR Is Manipulated, and What It Means More Evidence That LIBOR Is Manipulated, and What It Means

Barclays’ admission that it deliberately understated the interest rates at which it could borrow between September 2007 and May 2009 suggests grievous flaws in the widespread process of using LIBO…

July 2, 2012

Europe and Eurasia
"Iceland's Post-Crisis Miracle" Revisited "Iceland's Post-Crisis Miracle" Revisited

Back in July 2010, we produced a post examining the “Icelandic Post-Crisis Miracle,” as proclaimed by Paul Krugman.  We showed that Krugman’s “miracle” was merely an artifact of comparing changes …

June 18, 2012

Monetary Policy
Gloomy Jobs Picture Is off the Fed’s Charts Gloomy Jobs Picture Is off the Fed’s Charts

When the Federal Reserve’s Open Markets Committee (FOMC) last met in April, the unemployment rate was on a declining path – having fallen to 8.2% in March from 9.1% the previous August.  Against t…

June 14, 2012

Monetary Policy
Can Household Risk-Aversion Measures Predict Fed Policy? Can Household Risk-Aversion Measures Predict Fed Policy?

The so-called Taylor Rule in monetary policy suggests how the Federal Reserve should adjust interest rates based on movements in inflation and economic output.  Although the Fed has never explicit…

May 29, 2012

Monetary Policy
It's the Jobs, Stupid It's the Jobs, Stupid

The Conference Board’s consumer confidence measure has, since its inception in 1967, been a perfect predictor of presidential incumbent election performance.  As shown in the large figure above, e…

May 21, 2012

Monetary Policy
Is the Fed’s Zero-Rate Pledge Hostage to an Inflated Employment Target? Is the Fed’s Zero-Rate Pledge Hostage to an Inflated Employment Target?

The Fed has a dual mandate to promote stable prices and maximum employment.  With current inflation near the Fed’s long-run target of 2% and unemployment well above estimates of its “natural rate,…

February 8, 2012

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Buffett Wants to Pay Higher Taxes—on Less Than 1% of His Income Buffett Wants to Pay Higher Taxes—on Less Than 1% of His Income

In a now-famous August 14, 2011 New York Times op-ed, billionaire Warren Buffett called for tax rates to be raised “immediately on taxable incomes in excess of $1 million, including, of course, di…