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December 1, 2017

Political History and Theory
British soldiers marking the anniversary of the armistice that ended WW1. Ten Historical Anniversaries of Note in 2018

Anniversaries mark the passage of time, recall our triumphs, and honor our losses. Two thousand seventeen witnessed many significant historically anniversaries: the centennial of the U.S. entry into …

March 9, 2016

Monetary Policy
Is a Little Turbulence a Threat to Growth? Is a Little Turbulence a Threat to Growth?

The minutes of the FOMC’s January 26-27 meeting mention financial “market turbulence” five times, and report that members discussed its potential to “restrain U.S. economic activity.” Chair Janet …

November 9, 2016

United States
The President’s (Economic) Inbox

The election of Donald Trump creates extraordinary uncertainty about the future course of U.S. economic policy. Markets don’t like extreme unknowns, and there are valid reasons to fear that Trump’s p…

December 9, 2011

Defense and Security
U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Jan Napolitano speaks about heightened passenger vigilance and airport security ahead of the holiday travel season at Reagan National Airport in Washington November 15, 2010. REUTERS/Kevin Lamarque TWE on Camera: Janet Napolitano on International Cooperation for Homeland Security

U.S. Homeland Security Secretary Janet Napolitano. (Kevin Lamarque/courtesy Reuters) When the topic comes up of which federal agencies are responsible for keeping Americans safe from foreign threats…

April 2, 2015

Monetary Policy
Is the Fed Gonna Tighten Like It’s 1994? Or 2004? Is the Fed Gonna Tighten Like It’s 1994? Or 2004?

How will the Fed raise rates once it starts?  Gradually, in small steps?  Faster, with larger steps? In 2012, before becoming Fed chair, Janet Yellen argued for a later first rate-hike than would…

December 16, 2014

Monetary Policy
What Did the Greenspan Fed Do with Its “Considerable Time” Pledge in ’04? What Did the Greenspan Fed Do with Its “Considerable Time” Pledge in ’04?

The big question for the December 16-17 FOMC meeting is whether to drop the pledge to keep rates at near-zero for a “considerable time.” Prior to the last meeting in October, two-thirds of primary…

August 18, 2014

Monetary Policy
Bullard Has Fed History on His Side in Rate-Hike Debate with Yellen Bullard Has Fed History on His Side in Rate-Hike Debate with Yellen

St. Louis Fed President James Bullard has moved decisively and vocally from the dove to hawk camp over the past year, and is now predicting a rate hike in the first quarter of next year – in contr…

July 10, 2014

Monetary Policy
Yellen vs. Bullard on Wages and Inflation: Who Is Right? Yellen vs. Bullard on Wages and Inflation: Who Is Right?

Wage growth is “not a threat to inflation,” Fed Chair Janet Yellen said on June 18.  “[With] our 2 percent inflation objective, we could see wages growing at a more rapid rate” before having to wo…

May 16, 2012

Education
CFR's Edward Alden, former Senator Chuck Hagel, and UNITE HERE President John Wilhelm speak at the Hamilton Project event "U.S. Immigration Policy: The Border Between Reform and the Economy" at the Brookings Institution on May 15, 2012. (Paul Morigi/Paul Morigi Photography) Business, Immigration, and Political Dysfunction

I had not intended it this way, but this will be my second item in just a week on political dysfunction in Washington. I participated yesterday in a superb forum on the prospects for immigration ref…

September 27, 2011

Immigration and Migration
Revitalizing the Border Governor’s Conference Revitalizing the Border Governor’s Conference

Governors (L-R) Jose Guadalupe Osuna Millan of Baja, Humberto Moreira Valdes of Coahuila, Texas Governor Rick Perry, California Governor Arnold Schwarzenegger, Jose Natividad Gonzalez Paras of Nuevo …