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January 4, 2006

Capital Flows
The Bush Administration was for rebuilding Iraq before it decided it was not worth the effort

I don't quite know what to make of the news that the Bush Administration won't seek more budget funds to rebuild Iraq.   At least not this year.Is it:A leading indicator of a broader reductio…

December 5, 2005

Saudi Arabia
IMF ignores exchange rate surveillance …

For Saudi Arabia. Just how is the continuation of Saudi Arabia's dollar peg consistent with the IMF's long-term expectations for oil prices ($40-55 a barrel?) and the dollar (tend to depreciate ov…

April 18, 2006

Not working — China’s attempts to rebalance its economy

China's leaders talk of rebalancing the basis for Chinese growth, shifting from exports and investment to consumption.   That makes a lot of sense to me.  China's economy is every bit as unba…

April 26, 2006

Did something change this weekend? Does the G-7 still matter?

I downplayed the most recent gathering of the great and good in Washington, arguing that those gathered in DC didn't really commit to the policy changes needed to avoid an another year of widenin…

March 30, 2006

United States
Read Barry Eichengreen

Eichengreen provides the best summary I have seen of competing views on the sustainability of large US trade deficits, along with the impact of sustained trade deficts on US external debt and the inv…

August 14, 2006

United States
I don’t think Stephen Jen can argue that I have been inconsistent.

Wrong, maybe, but not inconsistent.Stephen Jen notes that China is not the only country with an enormous current account surplus that intervenes massively in the foreign exchange market – “If…

November 1, 2006

Financial Markets
The club of puzzled dollar bears grows bigger

I am – and probably always will be – a big Robert Rubin fan.  In my view, 100 bills with Rubin's signature should trade at a premium, not a discount.But Rubin doens seem to be as good a currency …

November 16, 2006

United States
Wrong about 2006. Right about 2007? Or 2008?

I don’t think that Nouriel Roubini and I ever argued Bretton Woods 2 – an international monetary system based on central bank financing of the US deficit -- would absolutely collapse by the end of 20…

December 21, 2006

Emerging Markets
Crises of too much v. crises of too little

I was not all that impressed by the “day after” coverage of  Thailand’s capital controls in the financial press.     Everyone initially looked for parallels to 1997 – and signs that the most recen…

January 11, 2007

Financial Markets
Cracks in the GCC’s commitment to the dollar peg?

From Simon Derrick of the Bank of New York. Reuters reports that central bank governors of the UAE will meet in March to discuss currency pegs. The agency cites Governor Sultan Nasser al-Suweidi wh…