1,357 Results for:

January 26, 2005

Monetary Policy
The US dollar fails the Chinese test

So China wants to adopt a basket peg because it no longer thinks the dollar is a stable store of value. To quote Mr. Fan, Director of China’s National Institute for Economic Research:The U.S. dollar …

August 17, 2005

Emerging Markets
Fuel subsidies (and fuel shortages) in emerging economies

If you care to head to Baghdad - and are willing to wait in line - you can fill up your car with premium gasoline for 3.3 cents a liter (around 13 cents a gallon).  Basic gasoline goes for just more …

September 12, 2005

United States
Katrina and the current account deficit

At least a half percent off US GDP growth for the remainder of this year (Goldman says more), $150 billion in new federal spending (much of that in fiscal 2006), higher gasoline prices now and next y…

September 13, 2005

China
Time to change the way we think about the world

China's  August goods exports: $68 billion US July goods exports: $75 billion China should start exporting more goods than the USA in late 2005/ early 2006.  That is rather impressive.  It means…

October 14, 2005

Financial Markets
Are tax breaks for houses at risk?

Last weekend's Los Angeles Times (via the Economist's View) article on Bush's advisory commission made it pretty clear that at least one member of the commission, Charles Rossotti, had  t…

October 4, 2005

Financial Markets
Forget China, let’s talk about oil

Not the oil price per se, but what oil producers are doing with all the coin that comes with high oil prices.  I have rattled on and on about how China's current account surplus is on track to …

October 6, 2005

China
How many divisions does the IMF have?

So asks Andy Mukherjee of Bloomberg.  He wonders if IMF efforts to get China to allow its exchange rate to appreciate significantly would have exactly as much impact over Chinese policy as IMF effo…

September 4, 2005

China
If it is still a dollar peg, where is the monetary policy flexiblity?

I rarely agree with Steven "trade deficits do not matter" Jen.   His models for G3 exchange rate determination leave out a variable - the pace at which the US is adding to its external debt and its r…

November 30, 2005

Financial Markets
Tracking petrodollars (or petroeuros) — once more

I tend to agree with Stephen Roach more often than naught.   But every now and again, I do disagree with him.  And I am not convinced that petrodollars, are well, no longer petrodollars.   That is, t…

August 5, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
40% y/y growth is hard to sustain

Regular readers know that I am convinced that the pace of Chinese export growth will slow.   That is a bit at odds with parts of the conventional wisdom.  There is a widespread sense that China is th…