International re-engagement and new peace talks point in a positive direction, but multiple indicators point to fragility and risk.

As crisis persists in Ethiopia, the government in Addis Ababa aims to draw clear lines for the international community, positioning itself as a cooperative partner (after months of obstruction) in addressing the humanitarian crisis in Tigray

When U.S. Secretary of State Anthony Blinken traveled to Kenya, Nigeria, and Senegal last week, he made a point of emphasizing U.S. concern about Ethiopia’s conflict. Blinken stressed that “it is imperative that the fighting stops” and that the United States fully supports former Nigerian President Olusegun Obasanjo, the High Representative for the Horn of Africa for the African Union (AU), in his diplomatic efforts to broker a ceasefire that leads to political negotiations. Monday’s statement from Ethiopian Prime Minister Abiy Ahmed promising to personally “mobilize to the front to lead the defense forces” suggests those efforts are far from succeeding.

Ethiopia’s prime minister promised an aggressive reform agenda, but renewed turmoil threatens to throw the country’s democratic transition off course.

The Biden administration is trying to capitalize on positive trends in Ethiopia as it transitions from Special Envoy for the Horn of Africa Jeffrey Feltman, whose resignation was announced last week, to his successor, David Satterfield.