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September 21, 2018

Diplomacy and International Institutions
MIKTA in the Middle: A Little-Known Multilateral Group Turns Five

In 2013, the nations of Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey and Australia formally launched “MIKTA.” The latest in an alphabet soup of informal groupings that have sprung up since the end of the C…

Australia's Foreign Minister Julie Bishop talks during a media conference after holding the 8th foreign minister's meeting known as MIKTA (Mexico, Indonesia, South Korea, Turkey and Australia) in Sydney, Australia.

May 3, 2018

China
The Rising Bilateral Deficit with China and the Negotiations Over China 2025

A short review of the March U.S. trade data and a lot of speculation about the arc of the Sino-American economic relationship in light of the non-negotiability of Made in China 2025.

The Rising Bilateral Deficit with China and the Negotiations Over China 2025

March 6, 2018

United States
How Will the U.S. Fund its Twin Deficits?

Will there be a mismatch between what the U.S. wants to sell (Treasuries) and what the world wants to buy?

How Will the U.S. Fund its Twin Deficits?

February 22, 2018

China
China’s Coming Challenge to the U.S. Petro-Economy

U.S. oil production is set to surpass its all-time record monthly high (first set in 1970), and U.S. liquefied natural gas exports are roaring ahead, with 800 billion cubic feet already shipped since…

Electric trucks are shown at BYD headquarters in Shenzhen, China May 25, 2016.

February 15, 2018

United States
Trump’s Tax Success Is at the Expense of His Trade Agenda

It looks like a combination of tax cuts and spending increases will raise the U.S. fiscal deficit by about 2 percentage points of GDP (that’s the number Krugman used; Goldman’s US economics team puts…

Trump’s Tax Success Is at the Expense of His Trade Agenda

January 23, 2018

Venezuela
How Much Worse Can it Get for Venezuela’s State Oil Firm PDVSA?

Venezuela’s latest attempt to raise capital by issuing a cryptocurrency, the petro, linked allegedly to its Orinoco oil reserves is problematical on so many levels, it is hard to know how to comment …

The corporate logo of the state oil company PDVSA is seen at a gas station in Caracas, Venezuela December 1, 2017.

May 4, 2008

Financial Markets
The Economist and Goldman on oil and the dollar

I liked the lede of this week’s economist story on the Fed, the dollar and oil: “THE spirit of St Augustine hovered over the Federal Reserve this week. “Oh Lord, let us stop cutting interest rates…

February 18, 2007

China
Goldman: PBoC using swaps to limit reserve growth

Goldman seems to have confirmed something that I -- and, for that matter, Stephen Green of Standard Chartered and Louis Kuijs of the World Bank -- have suspected for a while: China's "true" reser…

December 15, 2017

United States
Why The Trade Balance (Still) Matters

It is a useful indicator (even for the U.S.)

Why The Trade Balance (Still) Matters

December 8, 2017

South Korea
Korean Won Up, New Taiwan Dollar Flat: An Update on Asian Intervention

Korea didn’t stop the won from appreciating through 1090 (its intervention level in 2016); Taiwan seems to be blocking any move through 30.

Korean Won Up, New Taiwan Dollar Flat: An Update on Asian Intervention