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May 8, 2018

China
Disaggregating the Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Since 2007 Disaggregating the Fall in China's Current Account Surplus Since 2007

China's current account surplus is almost certainly about $100 billion larger than officially reported, and the falling current account surplus masks a persistent manufacturing surplus.

May 21, 2018

Argentina
Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment.  But Sustainable with A High Probability? Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment. But Sustainable with A High Probability?

Probably only connoisseurs of IMF Access Policy debates understand the importance of being judged “sustainable with a high probability” by 19th Street. That’s what unlocks the keys to the kingdom,…

May 11, 2018

Eurozone
Ireland Exports its Leprechaun Ireland Exports its Leprechaun

Irish tax distortions have a material impact on aggregate eurozone economic data.

May 9, 2018

South Korea
Japanese Prime Minister Shinzo Abe, South Korean President Moon Jae-in, and Chinese Premier Li Keqiang attend a business summit in Tokyo on May 9, 2018. Can Japan and South Korea Handle Peace With Pyongyang?

The rapid pace of North Korean diplomacy makes it crucial that Japan and South Korea coordinate more closely on potential changes to Northeast Asian security. But they must first overcome some deep-r…

May 4, 2018

Women and Women's Rights
Girls walk past pictures of Lebanese parliament candidates in Beirut. Women this Week: Making History in Lebanon

Welcome to “Women Around the World: This Week,” a series that highlights noteworthy news related to women and U.S. foreign policy. This week’s post, covering April 27 to May 4, was compiled with supp…

May 3, 2018

China
The Rising Bilateral Deficit with China and the Negotiations Over China 2025 The Rising Bilateral Deficit with China and the Negotiations Over China 2025

A short review of the March U.S. trade data and a lot of speculation about the arc of the Sino-American economic relationship in light of the non-negotiability of Made in China 2025.

April 25, 2018

Mexico
Leftist front-runner Andres Manuel Lopez Obrador of the National Regeneration Movement (MORENA) gestures while leaving the Palacio de Mineria after the first presidential debate in Mexico City, Mexico April 22, 2018. The Coming Presidential Elections in Mexico: Will López Obrador maintain the Lead?

This is a guest post by Isidro Morales, a professor of the School of Government at Tecnológico de Monterrey, Santa Fe (Mexico City) campus. On Sunday April 22, the first of three presidential deba…

April 24, 2018

International Economic Policy
Asia's Central Banks and Sovereign Funds Are Back Asia's Central Banks and Sovereign Funds Are Back

East Asia (China, Japan, and the NIEs) ran a $600 billion current account surplus in 2017. "Official" (central bank and sovereign fund) outflows accounted for about half of that. Asia's foreign excha…

April 24, 2018

Iran
Flames emerge from flare stacks at the oil fields in Basra, southeast of Baghdad, Iraq January 17, 2017. Energy Intelligence Briefing: Automated Warfare, Asymmetric Risks, and Middle East Conflicts

Geopolitical risk is always a major feature of global oil and gas markets, but the interplay of wars without end, powerful non-state actors, and the proliferation of new weapons technologies across t…