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November 12, 2006

United States
“Convenient to the point of being self-serving … but it seems right”

Those are the words Charles Dumas and Diana Choyleva of Lombard Street Research use to describe Bernanke's savings glut hypothesis in their book "The Bill from the China Shop."  They write:In Mar…

November 16, 2006

Monetary Policy
I am big in Denmark …

OK, not really.  I suspect my entire Danish readership either has already heard my interview with Peter Harmsen of the DBC on Chinese reserves, or knows about as much about the topic as I do (the fol…

January 10, 2007

United States
The sum of my fears (the future course of the trade deficit)

As Calculated Risk shows, the US non-oil trade deficit has been flat for sometime now.   If you project out a flat non-oil trade deficit and a falling petroleum deficit, the overall deficit should he…


February 13, 2007

United States
The 2006 trade data

It seems to me that there are at least three big stories in the US trade data, maybe four or five ...The first is that US exports grew quite strongly in 2006.  And goods exports outperformed services…

March 15, 2007

Financial Markets
Just how big is the yen carry trade?

Stephen Jen of Morgan Stanley insists not-so-big.  Or at least that the large size of the carry trade cannot be proved – and that the impact of any recent unwinding has been overstated.   That is his…

June 10, 2007

United States
Last week’s data flow supported the US adjustment optimists … not the pessimists

The trade deficit fell back under $60b in April -- see Jeremy Peters' coverage in the New York Times.  The fall in the overal deficit stemming more from a fall in non-oil imports rather than from…


July 29, 2007

Financial Markets
Is the dollar now a credit market play, not an equity play?

David Bloom (director of currency strategy at HSBC), paraphrased by Peter Garnham in Friday’s FT: “Today the euro represents growth and has become a big equity bet, while the dollar is firmly e…

September 3, 2007

United States
The post-industrial economy?

Buried in a column on iconoclastic  (and fashionista) tax policy expert Lee Shephard is this little gem:"“The whole Midwest was engaged in metal-bashing of some sort back then[when she was growing up…

October 1, 2007

Financial Markets
My recap of the past week

Oil stayed high -- but not high enough to worry Peter Fritsch and Kelly Evans of the Wall Street Journal.The dollar fell against the euro and loonie -- but probably not by enough for the dollar to di…

January 20, 2008

United States
The United States, on sale

The front page of the Sunday New York Times had a long article by Peter S. Goodman and Louise Story. But Maureen Dowd is a better barometer of the cultural zeitgeist that news page: today’s column …