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January 17, 2018

China
A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds A Few Words on China’s Holdings of U.S. Bonds

A primer on China reserve watching.

June 21, 2018

China
What Would Happen if China Started Selling Off Its Treasury Portfolio? What Would Happen if China Started Selling Off Its Treasury Portfolio?

Just how important have foreign inflows been to the Treasury market?  

June 14, 2018

Emerging Markets
Emerging Markets Under Pressure Emerging Markets Under Pressure

Emerging markets have come under a bit of pressure recently, with the combination of the dollar’s rise and higher U.S. ten year rates serving as the trigger. The Governor of the Reserve Bank of India…

June 7, 2018

Germany
Merkel and Scholz Have Put the IMF in a Pickle Merkel and Scholz Have Put the IMF in a Pickle

Germany seems to have ruled out all the mechanisms for eurozone fiscal expansion that the IMF liked…

June 5, 2018

China
How Durable is China’s Rebalancing? How Durable is China’s Rebalancing?

I increasingly suspect my view on Chinese “rebalancing” is at odds with the current consensus (or perhaps just with a plurality of the investment bank analysts and financial journalists who watch Chi…

May 31, 2018

United States
US-Debt-BGR-Header-2-1160x630.jpg The National Debt Dilemma

With the U.S. national debt already exceeding $15 trillion, President Trump’s tax reform and budget deals with Congress are poised to add massively to the country’s deficits. CFR explores the origins of the national debt, the risks it presents, and the outlook for change.

January 3, 2018

China
China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention.   And Europe's Too Little China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention. And Europe's Too Little

The ECB has almost certainly had a bigger impact on U.S. rates over the last three years than the PBOC, without buying (or selling) any Treasuries.

May 24, 2018

Turkey
Turkey Could Use a Few More Reserves, and a Somewhat Less Creative Banking System Turkey Could Use a Few More Reserves, and a Somewhat Less Creative Banking System

Turkey’s currency initially rallied after the central bank raised interest rates yesterday. Perhaps a bit more orthodoxy is all it will take to restore a modicum of stability to Turkey’s markets. The…

May 23, 2018

Italy
Alessandro Bianchi/Reuters Italy's New Government Could Be the Force That Finally Breaks Europe

Italy's new government could pursue a path that could have a devastating effect on Europe’s financial position

May 21, 2018

Argentina
Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment.  But Sustainable with A High Probability? Argentina: Sustainable, Yes, with Adjustment. But Sustainable with A High Probability?

Probably only connoisseurs of IMF Access Policy debates understand the importance of being judged “sustainable with a high probability” by 19th Street. That’s what unlocks the keys to the kingdom,…