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December 10, 2006

Financial Markets
Are the world’s oil exporters shifting away from the dollar?

The FT says so, drawing on work that from the Bank of International Settlements.I like a good petrodollar story -- and a good central bank diversification story -- as much as the next guy.   A lot mo…


January 30, 2007

Financial Markets
Hey big spender (or why conservation is perhaps a bit more than just a personal virtue) ….

In the past, I have noted that oil exporters saved rather than spent the windfall from the surge in oil prices.    The IMF calculated that the average oil producer in the Middle East “spent” 30% and …


February 1, 2007

Monetary Policy
The People’s Investment Company - the early reports

Market News International reports that China is set to create a new investment company – called the State Foreign Exchange Investment Company.  It will supposedly by run by someone from the Finance M…

February 13, 2007

United States
The 2006 trade data

It seems to me that there are at least three big stories in the US trade data, maybe four or five ...The first is that US exports grew quite strongly in 2006.  And goods exports outperformed services…

March 28, 2007

United States
Global adjustment — the US, Europe, Asia and last but not least the oil exporters

Folks have been worrying about the current account deficit for so long that “Wall Street is downright bored with it.”    Trust me, I know.  But just because the world’s central banks have financed an…

April 17, 2007

Financial Markets
Saudi riyal, Kuwait dinar, UAE dirham hit multi-year lows v. the pound …

They are also getting close to a record low v. the euro. Yet oil is, well, still rather strong.   Against the dollar.  But also against the pound and euro.   The euro and pound have gained significan…

April 25, 2007

Five observations: all loosely tied to yen and dollar weakness and the swelling coffers of the emerging world

One. Yes, Virginia, exchange rates do matter … Japan’s trade surplus is rising.  Its current account surplus should be rising even more, as its interest income should be increasing too.   The MoF is …


February 6, 2007

Capital Flows
So how, exactly, is Venezuela able to outspend the US in the Western Hemisphere?

There has been a lot hand wringing in the foreign policy community about the increase in Venezuela's influence in Latin America.    Not everyone is keen on following Richard Lapper's advice. …


December 5, 2007

Competition — and coordination — within the Chinese state as China goes forth

Today’s Financial Times has an important article by Geoff Dyer and Sundeep Tucker examining the overseas expansion of Chinese companies in general, and Chinese state companies in particular.  It is a…

December 23, 2007

Capital Flows
A Saudi investment authority?

The FT broke a major story -- at least in my world -- late on Friday. The Saudis are about to set up a sovereign wealth fund: Saudi Arabia plans to establish a sovereign wealth fund that is expecte…