410 Results for:

September 1, 2005

Economics
Some thoughts on Katrina and the economy

I understand the reasoning behind the standard argument that big storms have less impact on an economy - particularly a large and diverse economy - than one would expect looking at the scale of the d…

September 16, 2005

United States
The q2 current account deficit and global adjustment

Some days are marked by a surplus of good material.   The TIC data.  The second quarter current account data.  DeLong's magnus opus on what the great and good talked about on the margins of Jacks…

August 22, 2005

Capital Flows
The Wall Street Journal oped’s page idea of a “serious” policy on Iran …

Is to keep Iran out of the World Cup (see Monday's Wall Street Journal).    That is serious?Moscow's boycott of the Los Angeles Olympics had such a profound impact on US policy ... How about …

October 17, 2005

China
The US government has no idea what China intends to do with its exchange rate …

This Financial Times articles by Andrew Balls and Richard McGregor is worth reading.  It makes two key points:1. China did not give the US any hints what it plans to do next with its currency next.  …

January 17, 2006

United States
Where is the trade deficit heading? How I differ from Justin Lahart (and a few others)

Justin Lahart (of the Wall Street Journal's Ahead of the Tape column) correctly called the fall in the monthly trade deficit last Thursday. But he - channeling Jim Griffin of ING investment manag…

February 21, 2006

Emerging Markets
Frederick Kempe of the Wall Street Journal gets an awful lot of things wrong

As, I suspect, does Joseph Quinlan of the Bank of America- the source of much of Kempe's analysis.   Kempe's core argument: consumers in emerging markets are driving global demand.   Hi…

May 26, 2006

China
Do China’s fast growing dollar reserves guarantee a sound banking system?

One common argument about China that I never have fully understood is that China’s banks are OK because China has tons of dollar reserves. It is implicit in this statement by the (very good) Richar…

October 28, 2005

China
A new Chinese oil strategy? Buy into BP and other oil majors

I think this is potentially very good news.   It is not quite Tom Barnett's scenario - that would imply BP and Exxon buying up Chinese oil firms or building infrastructure to supply the Chinese m…

May 31, 2006

China
Interesting recent work on China

Chinese stock markets have not been as frothy as the Chinese economy – though the Chinese market is doing better in 2006 than it has for a long time.  But what doesn’t go up as fast also doesn’t nece…

June 27, 2006

United States
A soft landing means sustained $1 trillion plus (7% of GDP) current account deficits …

Over the past few years, US imports have grown faster than US exports.  The result -- to no one surprise: an expanding trade deficit.    Because of the gap between imports and exports, US exports nee…

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