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January 8, 2006

Monetary Policy
Sit back and watch Asia’s reserves grow.

Not because Taiwan is reportedly intervening once again last week.   But because Asia holds lots of euros and yen.    The euro rose 2.4% against the dollar last week, the yen by 2.8%.  And Asia holds…

February 13, 2006

Monetary Policy
It is back. Bretton Woods 2 (central bank financing of the US)

Some would say it never really went away.Emerging market economies did not stop accumulating reserves in 2005.  Best I can tell, adjusting for valuation effects and including all the foreign assets o…

February 22, 2006

Capital Flows
The (strange) politics of globalization

Maybe the US would be better off if China owned Unocal's Asian oil fields Not economically.  Unocal's oil and gas fields are presumably worth a bit more now than they were last summer.  But s…

March 18, 2006

United States
What Geithner said. And then some

Most of the blogosphere has already weighed in on Tim Geithner's most recent speech.   I am a bit late to the party.   And I may not have much to add. I deeply agree with Geithner's argument…

November 8, 2005

Europe
More flexible labor markets, less business investment?

Apologies for being one day late discussing a Peaple/ Teitelbaum article in Monday's Wall Street Journal called "UK business investment lags."  My title is intentionally a bit overstated, but I w…

February 22, 2006

United States
Shrinking dark matter watch

Or maybe shifting dark matter watch. Via Barry Ritholtz comes news that increasing US investment (according to Mandel) in one key intangible asset - US brands - may be yielding diminishing returns.  …

January 24, 2006

United States
Robert Rubin still worries about the risk of a hard landing …

From Rubin's Wall Street Journal oped: The effects of these fiscal conditions are exacerbated because they occur, uniquely in the U.S. amongst the developed nations, in combination with a very lo…

April 27, 2006

Unpleasant balance of payments math — why the interest rate matters for dark matter

Bill Cline of the IIE rightly took Nouriel and me to task (politely) for assuming that the average return on US FDI abroad would equal the average return on foreign FDI in the US in our 2004 paper on…

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January 26, 2006

China
The intent is good …

The Governor of the China's Central Bank said pretty much all the right things at Davos - at least from my point of view.    China does need to base its growth far more on domestic consumption.  …

January 9, 2006

United States
Martin Feldstein joins the dollar doomsday cult

Stephen Kirchner take note.  Alan Greenspan, too.  Dr. Feldstein thinks central banks -- and oil sheiks -- are behind a lot of private flows into the US.  And he doesn't seem convinced that this …