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February 16, 2018

Asia
Berlusconi_1.11.2018 Populism May Have a Banner Year in 2018—and 2019 Too

By the middle of 2017, following Emmanuel Macron’s dominant victory in France’s elections, the relative underperformance of populist parties in elections in the Netherlands, and the backlash in the U…

January 3, 2018

China
China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention.   And Europe's Too Little China’s Impact on the U.S. Bond Market Gets Too Much Attention. And Europe's Too Little

The ECB has almost certainly had a bigger impact on U.S. rates over the last three years than the PBOC, without buying (or selling) any Treasuries.

May 31, 2017

China
China pays more than other similarly-ranked countries on its government debt Downgraded China Doth Protest Too Much

Moody’s recently downgraded China’s credit rating from Aa3 to A1, on expectations that the country’s debt stock—already over 250 percent of GDP—will rise further with slowing potential growth. Chines…

February 16, 2018

North Korea
KCNA Avoiding War With North Korea

The U.S. military is prepared for a number of contingencies with regard to North Korea, but the best path forward is diplomacy aimed at denuclearization.

February 15, 2018

United States
Trump’s Tax Success Is at the Expense of His Trade Agenda Trump’s Tax Success Is at the Expense of His Trade Agenda

It looks like a combination of tax cuts and spending increases will raise the U.S. fiscal deficit by about 2 percentage points of GDP (that’s the number Krugman used; Goldman’s US economics team puts…

February 15, 2018

South Africa
South-Africa-Zuma-Resigns-ANC Finally, Jacob Zuma Resigns as President of South Africa

The governing African National Congress (ANC) and its large parliamentary majority moved quickly to elect deputy president and current party leader Cyril Ramaphosa to state presidency.

February 13, 2018

United States
FA MA 2018 Cover Walking Away From World Order: Weighing Trump’s First Year of Foreign Policy

“Nobody really knew what to expect when Donald Trump became U.S. president. Would he disrupt the status quo or maintain it? Blow himself up or escape unscathed? One year in, the answer is yes,” write…

February 12, 2018

China
The Belt and Road Initiative Didn't Quite Live up to its Hype in 2017 The Belt and Road Initiative Didn't Quite Live up to its Hype in 2017

China's balance of payments data doesn't show any material increase in the pace of offshore lending.

February 9, 2018

United States
The Impact of Tax Arbitrage on the U.S. Balance of Payments The Impact of Tax Arbitrage on the U.S. Balance of Payments

I sat down with the FT's Matt Klein for an Alphachat podcast on the international provisions in the December tax reform.

February 8, 2018

China
China-North-Korea-Cover.jpg The China–North Korea Relationship

China is North Korea’s biggest trade partner and has leverage over Kim Jong-un’s regime, yet its policies focus more on border stability than nuclear threat.