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January 11, 2016

Financial Markets
Global Economics Monthly: January 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that 2016 looks set to be a volatile year in which geopolitics and hard-to-quantify policy dilemmas create significant uncertainty in markets. Policymakers will be asked to make tough decisions about where and when to intervene in markets at a time when their capacity to deal with crisis is increasing challenged, suggesting the road ahead could continue to be bumpy.

November 20, 2015

Fossil Fuels
Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices

Introduction An oil-exporting country’s “fiscal breakeven” oil price is the minimum price per barrel that the country needs in order to meet its expected spending needs while balancing its budget …

Fiscal Breakeven Oil Prices header

March 15, 2017

Greece
Global Economics Monthly: March 2017

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn writes that Greece and its creditors are again locked in a showdown over reforms, cash, and debt relief. Another cliff-hanger ahead of heavy July debt payments looks likely. Extend-and-pretend is a dead end for Greece and an increasingly populist Europe, and a more ambitious agreement seems ruled out by bailout fatigue in creditor countries. Markets are once again underestimating the risks of “Grexit.”

April 7, 2017

Financial Markets
CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker

The CFR Sovereign Risk Tracker can be used to gauge the vulnerability of emerging markets to default on external debt. 

Sovereign risk tracker

July 18, 2016

Russia
Global Economics Monthly: July 2016

Steven A. Tananbaum Senior Fellow for International Economics Robert Kahn argues that summer has seemingly brought a new optimism about the Russian economy. Russia’s economic downturn is coming to an end, and markets have outperformed amidst global turbulence. But the coming recovery is likely to be tepid, constrained by deficits and poor structural policies, and sanctions will continue to bite. Brexit-related concerns are also likely to weigh on oil prices and demand. All this suggests that Russia’s economy will have a limited capacity to respond to future shocks.