18 Results for:

November 12, 2008

Monetary Policy
China’s fiscal stimulus doesn’t necessarily mean that it will stop buying Treasuries

I tend to be a bit better at spotting risks than opportunities. I have long worried that China might conclude that it is no longer in its interest to continue to buy ever larger quantities of Trea…

March 13, 2009

United States
The bad news hidden in the good news (today’s trade data)

The US January trade deficit fell to $36 billion. That is as low as it has been in a long time. The petroleum deficit (seasonally adjusted) fell to $14.7 billion -- $4 billion less than in Dece…

The bad news hidden in the good news (today’s trade data)

January 30, 2009

Monetary Policy
Secrets of SAFE: A trillion of Treasuries here, a trillion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money ...

China has $1946 billion in reserves. The PBoC had another $185 billion in “other foreign assets” at the end of November. Given the fall in China’s reserve requirement, now likely has maybe $160 …

Secrets of SAFE: A trillion of Treasuries here, a trillion there and pretty soon you are talking about real money ...

July 16, 2008

Monetary Policy
The May TIC data (with special attention to Agencies and London)

The TIC data for May doesn’t lend itself to any overall story line. Net long-term inflows were OK -- with foreign purchases of over $90 billion of US long-term debt offsetting the $25 billion or…

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July 20, 2009

Monetary Policy
And now, the rest of the story: long-term portfolio flows have fallen by more than the trade deficit

The goods news: the US trade deficit has shrunk. On a rolling 12m basis the trade deficit is down to around $500 billion, and the data from the last few months suggests that it should fall even fur…

trade-deficit-v-portfolio-flows-5