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September 21, 2004

Emerging Markets
The IMF has refused to bailout bond holders before Argentina!

Adam Thomson of the FT has an interesting article arguing that Argentina’s bond restructuring could succeed if Argentina is willing to offer bondholders 30 cents on the dollar, only a bit more than t…

January 11, 2005

Emerging Markets
Should the IMF ever take a haircut?

Before Argentina’s default, Adam Lerrick thought the IMF (or the G-7) should offer to buy Argentina’s bonds at 60 cents on the dollar. Argentina is now offering bondholders an exchange that will be …

June 30, 2005

Capital Flows
CNOOC (once again)

The CNOOC bid presumably is motivated by two things. One, Beijing has plenty of cash, and already holds more Treasuries than it wants, so it wants to diversify its portfolio. As I argued earlier, C…

March 22, 2005

Economics
What did I miss?

Let’s see.Paul Wolfowitz looks set to take over the World Bank. Oil is a bit over $56. That is not low, by any measure. I remember how much concern there was last summer when oil broke $40.The cur…

April 15, 2005

United States
First the President tells China that it is holding a bunch of worthless IOUs …

And now he tells China it really should revalue, in far stronger language than the US (or the G-7) has used before.It seems like Tim Adams, the incoming Treasury Under Secretary for International Aff…

September 4, 2005

China
If it is still a dollar peg, where is the monetary policy flexiblity?

I rarely agree with Steven "trade deficits do not matter" Jen.   His models for G3 exchange rate determination leave out a variable - the pace at which the US is adding to its external debt and its r…

June 8, 2005

Economics
Should the world finance the World Bank rather than the United States

Note: Title credit goes to Jeff Frankel, who moderated a panel I participated on.Paul Wolfowitz just took over at the World Bank. He already seems to have indicated that is not going to follow Desmo…

September 29, 2005

Financial Markets
Has the IMF been asleep at the wheel, and ignored surveillance of exchange rates?

Tim Adams - the new US Treasury Under Secretary - thinks so: IMF Article IV requires that the IMF exercise "firm surveillance" over the exchange rate policies of members. After the collapse of the Br…

October 6, 2005

China
How many divisions does the IMF have?

So asks Andy Mukherjee of Bloomberg.  He wonders if IMF efforts to get China to allow its exchange rate to appreciate significantly would have exactly as much impact over Chinese policy as IMF effo…

October 23, 2005

China
China’s crazy numbers

The Big Picture is right.  China's growth numbers are not to be trusted.   China's growth almost certainly slowed more than the government acknowledged in say 1998 and 1999, after the Asian c…