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April 13, 2006

Financial Markets
Abridged Roubini on oil at $70 — and not-so-abridged Setser on Petrodollars

A condensed version of Dr. Roubini's latest post:"I was wrong about the impact of $40 oil, but I'll be right about the impact of $70 oil."I know Dr. Roubini was wrong about the impact of $40 …

Abridged Roubini on oil at $70 — and not-so-abridged Setser on Petrodollars

April 28, 2006

Why does China have a looser monetary policy than the United States?

We know why the global economy grew strongly in the first quarter.   Nothing changed.  Or rather, the basic pattern that has driven global growth for the past few years intensified.The US continued t…

April 12, 2006

United States
Watch for imports to surge in March

China's March trade surplus topped $11b - and its goods exports were a very impressive $78 billion.  China February surplus was about $2.5 billion, and its exports only 54.1 billion.  China had a…

Watch for imports to surge in March

April 26, 2006

Did something change this weekend? Does the G-7 still matter?

I downplayed the most recent gathering of the great and good in Washington, arguing that those gathered in DC didn't really commit to the policy changes needed to avoid an another year of widenin…

September 1, 2006

Apparently, a global slowdown driven by a slowing US is GOOD for the dollar

The (unnamed) “analysts” have spoken.    The yen won’t rise above 113 v the dollar even if the US economy slows significantly, slowing the global economy.    Ahmed and Lindemayer report in today’s Wa…

December 8, 2006

Monetary Policy
Bretton Woods 2: On its last legs? Or still going strong at the end of 2006?

Or perhaps a complicated combination of both?   That is a question that has popped up over at Martin Wolf’s forum.   It is a keyquestion for the global economy, and for financial markets.Those bettin…

September 23, 2005

Did anything really change with the RMB today?

Widening the trading band around the dollar would be a big deal. Widening the trading bands around other currencies does not strike me as a big deal.  It - in a sense - just makes it easier to sti…

June 5, 2006

Financial Markets
The slumping Riyal (and RMB)

Just a reminder.  Oil is up something like 20% this year, at least in dollar terms.   The Saudi riyal is down almost 9% this year, at least in euro terms.  And given that the Saudis import far more f…

February 7, 2008

Capital Flows
Are sovereign wealth funds an inevitable consequence of globalization?

Stephen Jen -- Morgan Stanley’s sovereign fund guru -- say so.I am not convinced.Sovereign wealth funds are arguably an inevitable consequence of very rapid reserve growth. Thus, they could be an in…

January 12, 2008

Capital Flows
Wall Street, the new development frontier …

The children of China’s revolution have turned into capitalists. The China Development Bank now apparently aspires to be a commercial bank, not a policy bank limited to helping finance investment in …