237 Results for:

September 21, 2004

Emerging Markets
The IMF has refused to bailout bond holders before Argentina!

Adam Thomson of the FT has an interesting article arguing that Argentina’s bond restructuring could succeed if Argentina is willing to offer bondholders 30 cents on the dollar, only a bit more than t…

November 18, 2004

Is it the currency of John Snow and the problem of everyone else?

That headline draws on a nice quote from Steve Barrow of Bear Stearns. It paraphrases the famous saying about the dollar -- I think from Nixon’s Treasury Secretary John Connally -- "it is our curren…

November 20, 2004

United States
Large Players in Large Markets

One of the world’s ironies is that even as John Snow putters on about how currency values should be set by market forces, the market -- or at least the private market -- is now playing a comparativel…

November 30, 2004

Emerging Markets
Just because one dollar currently buys something like a million and half Turkish lira …

That does not necessarily mean the Turkish lira is cheap. Right now, given Turkey’s almost US scale current account deficit (close to 5% of GDP), the lira probably is a bit overvalued. Turkey is go…

December 2, 2004

Financial Markets
Renminbi tests multi-year lows against euro, pound, yen …

The renminbi seems to have reached a new low against the euro today, breaking through the low set yesterday before a very brief little rally. Every time the renminbi-dollar tumbles, I am reminded wh…

December 7, 2004

Capital Flows
Petroeuros

Monday’s FT had the story, drawing on this just released BIS report. It seems OPEC countries are holding fewer dollars and more euros in their external bank accounts. (Thanks to Marcel for alerting…

December 19, 2004

Plaza, or Louvre?

The 1985 Plaza accord sought to drive the dollar down; the 1987 Louvre sought to keep the dollar from falling further. There is growing talk of a new Plaza in the US -- though not in the circles tha…

December 19, 2004

The Teutonic Monetary Policy Tradition

My recent travels took me to old Europe -- and reminded me that the rest of the world is, in many ways, still unprepared for changes set to hit the world economy -- a world economy where the US trade…

December 22, 2004

Martin Wolf explains the fall in the renminbi-dollar

Martin Wolf did the math: it turns out the renminbi-dollar zone has a current account deficit (projected) of $260 billion with the world this year. The United States’ current account deficit of $650…

December 24, 2004

Financial Markets
Euro continues to soar, renminbi hits new lows …

If anyone thinks that what the world really needs right now is a weaker Chinese renminbi, do let me know. Yet that is exactly what the markets have delivered this week ... It seems pretty clear that…