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February 26, 2005

Capital Flows
Geoeconomics: What can we learn from the end of the “real” Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates?

Dan Drezner started a post with the Triffin dilemma, so I figure I too can digress into the realm of history.The Bretton Woods system of fixed exchange rates (Bretton Woods 1) collapsed, in some sens…

March 4, 2005

Emerging Markets
A few lessons for Mary Anastasia O Grady

I do not expect to consistently agree with the oped page of the Wall Street Journal. But I do not think it is too much to ask that the columnists on oped page of the Journal try to square their argu…

February 20, 2005

Capital Flows
Banker? Strategic competitor? Both?

The US borrows about 1/5 of all the money the federal government spends, and most of the borrowed money comes from abroad: foreign purchases of Treasuries in 2004 exceeded the (net) issuance of Treas…

January 25, 2005

Emerging Markets
Memo to John Taylor: In what sense was the Argentine crisis contained?

David Sanger goes back to his roots as the New York Times’ Treasury correspondent, and outlines the tensions that the dollar’s slide over the past few years has created. Sanger digs up a bunch of ol…

March 8, 2005

Financial Markets
I hope Andy Xie is wrong about this

Xie argues that Chinese prices won’t converge to US levels; rather US prices are likely to need to fall to Chinese levels.When a small economy like South Korea begins to develop, it is quite reasonab…

April 4, 2005

United States
McKinsey says the trade deficit does not matter

What is good for IBM (oops, Lenovo) is good for America.OK, that is a cheap shot.Yesterday’s Wall Street Journal published a column by Jon Hilsenrath that drew on work by Diana Farrell and the McKins…

January 19, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Prepare for the 50 year Treasury bond …

Since our newly inaugurated President seems intent on partial privatization of Social Security (despite lukewarm support from his own party), I thought I should offer him a bit of somewhat constructi…

May 1, 2005

China
Will China get hit by the cover jinx?

It is a bit hard to start shorting the renminbi (RMB/ the Chinese currency) just because China has now made its appearance on the cover of Newsweek. It is hard to short something that has yet to be …

January 24, 2005

Monetary Policy
Tyrants beware (except those we need to keep on financing us)

Today’s FT highlights the risk that the US will not benefit from cheap financing from the world’s central banks growing dollar reserves forever. Apparently, a new survey of central bankers suggests …

December 24, 2004

Financial Markets
Euro continues to soar, renminbi hits new lows …

If anyone thinks that what the world really needs right now is a weaker Chinese renminbi, do let me know. Yet that is exactly what the markets have delivered this week ... It seems pretty clear that…