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January 3, 2005

Budget, Debt, and Deficits
Borrowing is Saving, Up is Down

Edmund Andrews of the New York Times provides the Rosetta stone that lets us decipher the Bush Administration’s plan to cut the deficit, which seems to be a plan to pretend to cut the deficit. Here i…

December 10, 2004

Emerging Markets
Why Argentina should do its bond exchange, ASAP

Yields on Latin American bonds have not been this low for a long time. It is hard to believe that Brazil’s 20 year dollar bond trades at a yield of only 8%, and most long-term Brazilian bonds are in …

January 11, 2005

Emerging Markets
Should the IMF ever take a haircut?

Before Argentina’s default, Adam Lerrick thought the IMF (or the G-7) should offer to buy Argentina’s bonds at 60 cents on the dollar. Argentina is now offering bondholders an exchange that will be …

January 25, 2005

Emerging Markets
Memo to John Taylor: In what sense was the Argentine crisis contained?

David Sanger goes back to his roots as the New York Times’ Treasury correspondent, and outlines the tensions that the dollar’s slide over the past few years has created. Sanger digs up a bunch of ol…

February 15, 2005

Monetary Policy
Who are you gonna believe me, or your own lying eyes: the December TIC data

The mystery of China’s reserve management deepens.According to the Treasury data, foreign central banks provided the US with $10 billion in financing in December, mostly from the purchase of $7 billi…

January 26, 2005

Monetary Policy
The US dollar fails the Chinese test

So China wants to adopt a basket peg because it no longer thinks the dollar is a stable store of value. To quote Mr. Fan, Director of China’s National Institute for Economic Research:The U.S. dollar …

March 4, 2005

Emerging Markets
A few lessons for Mary Anastasia O Grady

I do not expect to consistently agree with the oped page of the Wall Street Journal. But I do not think it is too much to ask that the columnists on oped page of the Journal try to square their argu…

February 25, 2005

Capital Flows
Oil, and a bit of geopolitics

On Thursday, the Financial Times, the New York Times and Tom Friedman all weighed in on Asian reserve diversification. Paul Blustein of the Washington Post has an A1 story today on another of my comm…

February 16, 2005

Economics
Systemic risk

John Plender of the Financial Times has a nice (subscription only) survey of the risk that "systemic risk" (think LTCM/ 1998) may make an unwelcome comeback. Plender’s analysis clearly draws on New …

February 9, 2005

Economics
It is now official

Karl Rove is the Bush Administration’s economic policy czar, and de facto Treasury Secretary. In addition to responsibility for political affairs and strategic initiatives, Mr Rove has been appointe…