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October 27, 2004

Financial Markets
Morgan Stanley: China does not rely much on export led growth

Sometimes you read something and it makes you stop, because it is at odds with your existing sense of how the world economy is working. Drossos and Kinbrough’s argument that China does not rely on a…

November 7, 2004

United States
Updated paper on the sustainablility of US trade and current account deficits

Nouriel and I have just posted our updated analysis of US external sustainability, i.e. the United States capacity to continue to run large trade and current account deficits.The paper is certainly l…

November 12, 2004

Capital Flows
Geopolitics of a new G-7

There is a growing sense that the G-7 no longer is the right grouping for discussing today’s major international macroeconomic issues. It is hard to see, for example, how you can discuss "global reb…

February 20, 2005

Capital Flows
Banker? Strategic competitor? Both?

The US borrows about 1/5 of all the money the federal government spends, and most of the borrowed money comes from abroad: foreign purchases of Treasuries in 2004 exceeded the (net) issuance of Treas…

February 18, 2005

Monetary Policy
Will US (and Chinese) economic policy pass the Korean test?

Korea thinks China should get rid of its peg.And the governor of Korea’s central bank, Mr. Park, thinks the US should take steps to reign in domestic US demand and reduce its twin deficits.Park also …

February 24, 2005

Monetary Policy
An Asian OPEC?

A less kind headline might be "Asian policy makers meet, agree to continue manipulating foreign exchange markets" Still, this Bloomberg article (link thanks to Calculated Risk) suggests that there ma…

April 11, 2005

United States
Skating on incredibly thin ice

Altogether, the circumstances seem to be as dangerous and intractable as any I can remember, and I can remember quite a lot. What really concerns me is that there seems to be so little willingness o…

February 8, 2005

Chairman Greenspan: Do Not Worry, Be Happy

The Chairman gave policy makers a green light not to worry about the US current account deficit: the dollar’s existing fall will lead the deficit to turn around. The Chairman’s remarks also seem to …

May 8, 2005

Capital Flows
Is the balance of financial power shifting?

The IMF has about $200 billion that it can lend out. About $75 b is currently lent out, mostly to Brazil, Turkey and Argentina (data link), leaving a bit over $100 billion that could be lent out in …

February 9, 2005

Economics
It is now official

Karl Rove is the Bush Administration’s economic policy czar, and de facto Treasury Secretary. In addition to responsibility for political affairs and strategic initiatives, Mr Rove has been appointe…