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January 24, 2008

Financial Markets
Property without power?

Diplomatic sovereign wealth funds argue, more or less, that they have no desire for power - so there should be no restrictions on their ability to accumulate property. Those hoping for a cut of the S…

January 12, 2008

Capital Flows
Wall Street, the new development frontier …

The children of China’s revolution have turned into capitalists. The China Development Bank now apparently aspires to be a commercial bank, not a policy bank limited to helping finance investment in …

January 10, 2008

Emerging Markets
Shanghai, Mumbai, Dubai or goodbye. The year of reverse bailouts

Shanghai, Mumbai, Dubai doesn’t really quite work. The CIC is in Beijing, not Shanghai. Singapore has committed more funds to troubled banks than Mumbai. Abu Dhabi, Saudi Arabia and Kuwait have a …

January 23, 2008

The PBoC’s dilemmas

Whatever troubles the Fed faces, at least it is still profitable. The same cannot be said for China’s central bank. And while the Fed just has to worry about economic conditions in the US, the Pe…

June 19, 2008

Four bits of information to help understand China a little better …

Energy use is subsidized – even though China is a net importer of energy. Even after increasing domestic gasoline prices by 17%, Chinese prices will remain below the world market price. The World …

July 11, 2008

China’s June exports: still chugging along, despite all the talk to the contrary

Chinese policy makers are worried by the slowdown in y/y export growth. Never mind that 18% y/y growth during a US slowdown isn’t bad -- or that China’s monthly trade surplus topped $20 billion in …


July 14, 2008

Monetary Policy
The mystery deepens. China’s June reserve growth is surprisingly low.

China just indicated that its reserves reached $1808.8 billion at the end of June. That is obviously a huge sum -- it is $126.6b more than China reported at the end of March. But the increase in…

January 13, 2009

Monetary Policy
Secrets of SAFE: A sharp slowdown in reserve growth and large “hot” outflows in q4….

China’s formal foreign exchange reserves rose by about $40 billion in the fourth quarter, rising from $1906 billion to $1946 billion. Adjusted for valuation changes, that works to a $55 billion or …

Secrets of SAFE: A sharp slowdown in reserve growth and large “hot” outflows in q4….

January 23, 2009

Monetary Policy
Is the US now more, or less, reliant on China’s government for financing?

Rarely do nominees -- or even Treasury Secretaries -- make news in their written response to questions posed by Senators. But Tim Geithner’s comments on China yesterday tcertainly made news. I m…

December 10, 2008

Global trade is shrinking, fast

It is hard to put lipstick on a pig. China’s November trade data (a 2.2% year over year fall in exports; a 17.9% year over year fall in imports -- see Andrew Batson of the Wall Street Journal) sugge…

Global trade is shrinking, fast